Will the Tory party do well? [Split topic]

[Paul Calf]

It's something that does play on my mind - frankly, if Trump wins the election (which I expect him to), I can imagine it happening in the States very quickly, and it being imported over here soon after.

The big thing is, it'll be initially accepted by the masses. As a people, do that many people care about XR being labelled as an extremist organisation by the government? I suspect not - just a bunch of hippies who need to get a job, innit?

Trump's seen what Putin and Erdogan have done and he wants some of it. Prepare for a Reichstag fire, a Gleiwitz Incident.

[jamiefairlie]

It will happen. One day in the near-ish future, British people will go to prison, be harmed, injured, killed, ruined and bankrupted for speaking out against their government.

In the very near future I fear. I can see them doing a 'Catalonia' on Scotland. It's brewing up to some really nasty violent confrontations.

[idunnosomename]

THIS COULD BE A CASE FOR MULDER AND SCAA-LEE

[colacentral]

I truly don't understand the pessimism. The biggest potential hurdle is gerrymandering but the polls can only go one way from here. The 18-35 vote is firmly with Labour / the left.

I know every time this gets brought up someone says "yes but x number of people voted Tory in 2017 and 2019" - both Brexit elections, with Labour benefitting from scooping up all the left voter base in 2017, and suffering from it splitting in 2019. The Tory bubble will burst eventually.

I'm sure the papers will try to blame the EU and migrants for a recession / crash but that can only go so far - the myth of the Tories being a safe pair of hands will be tainted regardless.

Also I do think we're overdue a bit of good luck, as alluded to above - a bit of cancer, a few scandals etc. Murdoch dying would be a big boost. Stay positive.

[jobotic]

Erdogan is the right person to look at, despite Johnson's pretence of not liking him.

It's okay to think Labour might win the next election, even with the gerrymandering, but that's only if Labour, Trade Unions, Extinction Rebellion, people campaigning to keep their Post Office open, hunt sabs, disability rights campaigners etc etc etc haven't been classified as terrorists by then.

I'll be amazed if there aren't political arrests and maybe murders in the next five years, all cheered on by the Paulies.

[Paul Calf]

I truly don't understand the pessimism. The biggest potential hurdle is gerrymandering but the polls can only go one way from here. The 18-35 vote is firmly with Labour / the left.

I know every time this gets brought up someone says "yes but x number of people voted Tory in 2017 and 2019" - both Brexit elections, with Labour benefitting from scooping up all the left voter base in 2017, and suffering from it splitting in 2019. The Tory bubble will burst eventually.

I'm sure the papers will try to blame the EU and migrants for a recession / crash but that can only go so far - the myth of the Tories being a safe pair of hands will be tainted regardless.

Also I do think we're overdue a bit of good luck, as alluded to above - a bit of cancer, a few scandals etc. Murdoch dying would be a big boost. Stay positive.

You don't understand the scale of the project that's currently underway in Downing Street, in Europe, in the US and in the world.

[Paul Calf]

Almost every theory I'm seeing at the moment assumes that:

1. The people currently in power have any respect for the rule of law
2. That the scope and compass of the law will remain stable and consistent
3. That anyone in politics expects any sort of accountability

There is no accountability.

[Mr_Simnock]

Oh my what a bunch of drama queen misery cunts we have on here, I think some of them actually enjoy the 'lying in their own piss crying' attitude. I worked with a couple of folk like this about 10 years ago, never want to go through that again, every fucking chance almost relishing in their pessimistic and down beat world views, told to all and sundry in the office every fucking day. Absolute fucking personality vampires the pair of them.

[jobotic]

You're going to be alright aren't you?

[Paul Calf]

Oh my what a bunch of drama queen misery cunts we have on here, I think some of them actually enjoy the 'lying in their own piss crying' attitude. I worked with a couple of folk like this about 10 years ago, never want to go through that again, every fucking chance almost relishing in their pessimistic and down beat world views, told to all and sundry in the office every fucking day. Absolute fucking personality vampires the pair of them.

Any closer to getting a job?

[evilcommiedictator]

Have you considered though, year 3 of our glorious leader, decides to let Scotland have another vote. Year 4, Scotland leaves, and it is border lulz for the media, PLUS, Labour having to actually win a majority without the support of the SNP seats in coalition, leading to the eternal reign of our fluffy haired manly god

[Pseudopath]

Scotland leaves

Much as I'd like to see this happen, the establishment will never allow it. If they managed to rig an entire General Election that effectively, a Scottish Independence Referendum will be a comparative piece of pizzle.

[jamiefairlie]

Much as I'd like to see this happen, the establishment will never allow it. If they managed to rig an entire General Election that effectively, a Scottish Independence Referendum will be a comparative piece of pizzle.

I suspect the way forward will not be via a referendum. If Tories keep up this attitude (one many of the prospective Labour leaders seem to share, sadly), then I think we may see the SNP and Greens (and possibly a new List only indie party) running in the next Scottish election on a single policy of independence. If the get over 50% then they declare UDI and take it to the UN to recognize the new state.

There will be state violence from the UK government against Scotland.

[Fambo Number Mive]

I remember Kinnock's 1983 "I warn you" speech about Margaret Thatcher. That feels very apt for this government.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Ministers and civil servants are not being properly scrutinised by parliament because of delays in setting up select committees, senior MPs have claimed.

Despite crucial Brexit policy passing through the Commons and the possibility of conflict in the Middle East, chairs of four committees have said they have not yet been given any indication by Boris Johnson's government when they will be able to sit again.

The prime minister and his close adviser Dominic Cummings have previously been accused of avoiding appearances before MPs on these committees.

Since 2010, the members of most of the Commons committees are chosen by a system of internal party elections. But it is up to the leader of the house, Jacob Rees-Mogg, working with whips from both sides, to settle on a timetable for those elections.

Parliamentary sources have claimed that the government is delaying the process because of planned departmental mergers which may be postponed.

Senior MPs said they have not yet received any indication that the government will set elections to the committees by next month, as was hoped...

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jan/08/parliament-failing-to-keep-ministers-in-check-over-committee-delays

[Blinder Data]

I suspect the way forward will not be via a referendum. If Tories keep up this attitude (one many of the prospective Labour leaders seem to share, sadly), then I think we may see the SNP and Greens (and possibly a new List only indie party) running in the next Scottish election on a single policy of independence. If the get over 50% then they declare UDI and take it to the UN to recognize the new state.

There will be state violence from the UK government against Scotland.

I don't think this will happen. Sturgeon's SNP do not want a Catalonia-style situation. She wants independence but she wants to grind down all opponents until it's the preferred option by a clear majority of Scots. She's not going to declare UDI with 51% of MSPs supporting it. Another leader might act differently however...

Basically, there will be YEARS of constant jibes between UKG and SG about indyref2 until a new PM takes a more considerate approach (or SNP lose the next Holyrood election, which is unlikely). The SNP will hope that at that point they are ready to win a referendum.

The Yes contingent can bump their gums all they like but there's no point holding an independence referendum this year if they are odds on to lose it.

[Mister Six]

I agree with this and guess part of the despair is that we're stuck at base camp with no sign of making any challenge on that huge fucking mountain that we're all staring at. Got my first post-election branch meeting tonight although it's a tedious AGM. Almost feels like we should be turning up in bandages and on crutches, having lost a few members.

You don't need a crutch if you've lost your member.

[DeadJefferson]

Winning the argument - an update

[colacentral]

Nothing of significance has happened yet and there are a portion of people who just like to vote for the winner, or who is more popular or who is framed as the winner, which is also why Labour had a poll boost following GE 2017. The polls right now are even more meaningless than usual.

[idunnosomename]

imagine saying you're still lib dem when swinson went down like a lead elephant and ED DAVEY is front-runner for next leader

[imitationleather]

I'd say the Lib Dems should just disband but if they did some of those guys might end up joining Labour so actually they should keep going forever.

[Shit Good Nose]

I remember Kinnock's 1983 "I warn you" speech about Margaret Thatcher. That feels very apt for this government.

Indeed so.  Regardless of whether or not you like her, Emily Thorberry has been warning everyone about Boris as far back as when he was mayor of London.

The main problem is that there are FAR too many people who still think it's great that we have a mad professor in number 10.

[Paul Calf]

It's not like it was difficult to see what a complete fucking disaster Johnson would be in any senior political role: my dad, a lifelong Tory voter, said "Oh, no..." when he won the London Mayoral elections.

[Shit Good Nose]

It's not like it was difficult to see what a complete fucking disaster Johnson would be in any senior political role: my dad, a lifelong Tory voter, said "Oh, no..." when he won the London Mayoral elections.

Those of us who live in North East Somerset who have Mogg as our MP (holds up hand) thought exactly the same when he was voted in.  And it's a similar story there - anachronism personified made hero by HIGNFY.

But so many seem totally oblivious to it.  Bewildering.

[Sherringford Hovis]

The main problem is that there are FAR too many people

Boris will solve this by dismemberment of the NHS. Victorian levels of infant mortality. Cripes!

[phantom_power]

Man doesn't fuck up "not doing very much" shocker

[Shit Good Nose]

Boris will solve this by dismemberment of the NHS. Victorian levels of infant mortality. Cripes!

Fingers crossed!  At least they would be were it not for this leprosy.

[Fambo Number Mive]

It's not like it was difficult to see what a complete fucking disaster Johnson would be in any senior political role: my dad, a lifelong Tory voter, said "Oh, no..." when he won the London Mayoral elections.

Exactly, his record as Mayor is terrible.

How can the Tories ever criticise anyone else about wasting money when their party is led by the man who helped waste £43m of public money on a Garden Bridge that never happened.

Johnson also promised the London Cable Car would not cost any public money and then it cost the public £24m.

Why would anyone want the country to be run by a man who wastes so much money and regards £250,000 as "chicken feed".

I do think Labour should have highlighted how much money Johnson wasted as Mayor of London a bit more. No offence to Labour.

[Jerzy Bondov]

Yes he was a shocking Mayor. People in the Guardian (and in my office) saying 'ohh actually he was quite a liberal Mayor of London you know, he might be like that as PM' seem to have forgotten that he wanted to blast people with water cannons and he couldn't even manage that because he's a thick cunt and bought the wrong ones

[Fambo Number Mive]

Johnson's been talking rubbish again: https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1222500456351567873

At #PMQs Boris Johnson said the economy is up by 73% under the Conservative government.

That's incorrect. This is roughly the increase in GDP since 1990, under both Labour and Conservative governments.