Author Topic: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020  (Read 4812 times)

buttgammon

  • How thick is wall?
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #60 on: February 08, 2020, 09:53:50 PM »
Shitting myself about this exit poll. The most pessimistic part of me is thinking FF will do really, really well.

Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #61 on: February 08, 2020, 10:03:23 PM »
Eat your heart out Iowa. A virtual 3 way dead-heat on the Exit Poll between the top 3 parties.

buttgammon

  • How thick is wall?
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #62 on: February 08, 2020, 10:03:41 PM »
Fucking hell - exit poll more or less a three-way tie...

Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #63 on: February 08, 2020, 10:26:46 PM »
Three way being FG/FF/SF?

Surely not SF? Even at best they've not stood in enough seats....

Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #64 on: February 08, 2020, 10:43:29 PM »
Three way being FG/FF/SF?

Surely not SF? Even at best they've not stood in enough seats....

Just on projected % of first preference. Fianna Fail should comfortably be largest party. Fine Gael may just hold  a couple seats more than Sinn Fein and may have over run candidates in some constituencies.

Poirots BigGarlickyCorpse

  • Le corpse garlique of Hercule Poirot
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #65 on: February 08, 2020, 11:39:27 PM »
Probably what's gonna happen is we'll have a new confidence and supply government only with FF being propped up by FG. I can't see either party coalitioning with SF and there's no other party that'll come close to 25%.

buttgammon

  • How thick is wall?
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #66 on: February 09, 2020, 09:22:30 AM »
Probably what's gonna happen is we'll have a new confidence and supply government only with FF being propped up by FG. I can't see either party coalitioning with SF and there's no other party that'll come close to 25%.

I've been wondering this. Surely we'll end up with some sort of arrangement between the two parties again - either a confidence and supply agreement with FF as the bigger party this time, or a grand coalition with Micheál Martin as Taoiseach.

oy vey

  • [sic]
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #67 on: February 09, 2020, 09:39:07 AM »
Vote Taytos
Vote King

3 way tie between Taytos, King and Meanies. We should know the result as soon as the counters run out of tea and biscuits.

Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #68 on: February 09, 2020, 02:13:35 PM »
Election posters flying dangerously all over the neighbourhood today.

Buelligan

  • STOP being afraid
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #69 on: February 09, 2020, 02:48:30 PM »
I can't find any live feed or anything with results available for humans not living in Ireland or the UK, is there such a thing?

Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #70 on: February 09, 2020, 03:49:32 PM »
No real results yet. Rte.ie might be best bet as the Irish BBC with all those strengths and weaknesses. Most excitememt will be late on seeing who can get loads of.transfers to climb up for last seats.
And real issue will be government negotiations. In the long term, a Sinn Féin as a junior part of a government would suit all parties except Sinn Fèin. In the long run. Unless they pull the plug early on it.

Buelligan

  • STOP being afraid
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #71 on: February 09, 2020, 03:59:16 PM »
I tried to get RTÉ but it said I'm not allowed in France, they let the English, mind.  Just felt like watching the results announced but it seems it's not to be.

Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #72 on: February 09, 2020, 04:04:14 PM »
I tried to get RTÉ but it said I'm not allowed in France, they let the English, mind.  Just felt like watching the results announced but it seems it's not to be.

You could download Epic privacy browser and add the vpn extension to make it look like you are in UK - all free. Nowhere near as involved as that sentence
makes it sound. Is pretty good.

Buelligan

  • STOP being afraid
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #73 on: February 09, 2020, 04:06:17 PM »
Yes, I could, if I could be arsed.  I'm not going to let them make me.  Heheh.

Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #74 on: February 09, 2020, 04:22:13 PM »
Well Sinn Fein get first seat. Beating the most likely next Taoiseach/ the current Deputy Prime Minister and the second party'd Finance spokesperson.
All them likely to fill the remaining three seats.

If you want to have the experience of watching the results just put on a Wolfe Tones album and watch random shots of people lifted on people's shoulders.

Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #75 on: February 09, 2020, 04:27:27 PM »
I tried to get RTÉ but it said I'm not allowed in France, they let the English, mind.  Just felt like watching the results announced but it seems it's not to be.

Thanks to the CTA Brits and Irish are not considered foreign to each other nor subject to immigration control. Actually tho I don't think you can watch the RTÉ player in UK, I tried to watch the GAA when back home last summer.

Buelligan

  • STOP being afraid
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #76 on: February 09, 2020, 04:32:40 PM »
Yep, but the BBC (if I wasn't boycotting the BBC) allows people to watch the RTÉ live thing via its news site if you're in the UK.


Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #77 on: February 09, 2020, 04:43:25 PM »
Yep, but the BBC (if I wasn't boycotting the BBC) allows people to watch the RTÉ live thing via its news site if you're in the UK.

Ahh, and we get BBC Northern Ireland here bit iPlayer doesn't work (without VPN)

Poirots BigGarlickyCorpse

  • Le corpse garlique of Hercule Poirot
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #78 on: February 09, 2020, 05:01:42 PM »
SHIT i just realised Aontú will probably get transfers from Sinn Féin no no no no

Poirots BigGarlickyCorpse

  • Le corpse garlique of Hercule Poirot
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #79 on: February 09, 2020, 05:27:11 PM »
watching results on RTE Player, clapping like a seal and yelling "ELECTED! ELECTED!" when someone exceeds the quota

BlodwynPig

  • I’m deffo a AI bot, but i don’t even know it
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #80 on: February 09, 2020, 05:54:15 PM »
Is this Beige Man Vardakar out?

Buelligan

  • STOP being afraid
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #81 on: February 09, 2020, 06:01:46 PM »
According to the Independent, of six seats declared so far, SF have 4, FF 1, FG 0 and Green 1.  Looking pretty interesting.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/irish-election-results-latest-sinn-fein-varadkar-fine-gael-fianna-fail-a9325766.html

Cuellar

  • Taxes, they'll be lower...son
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #82 on: February 09, 2020, 06:03:09 PM »
RTE say

Quote
Of the 16 constituencies that have announced count results so far, 11 have been topped by Sinn Féin candidates.

It looks like Varadkar will get one of the seats... I think.

Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #83 on: February 09, 2020, 06:07:04 PM »
Is this Beige Man Vardakar out?
As leader of FG and Taoiseach? Presumably
As TD? No, he's second atm and will get plenty of second preference votes I'm sure.

Could see him not standing in 5 years though, he's gotten a lot of undeserved positive media coverage abroad that you'd imagine he can parlay into $$$.

buttgammon

  • How thick is wall?
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #84 on: February 09, 2020, 06:13:06 PM »
Some of these Sinn Féin surpluses are enormous - they'll decide a lot.

Still waiting to hear the first count here in Dublin South-West but they'll win on first count by a huge margin, and will probably get Paul Murphy in on transfers. Katherine Zappone is going to lose, and good riddance.

Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #85 on: February 09, 2020, 06:14:22 PM »
As Sinn Féin is a cross border party, and going on a flight of fantasy, let's say they fielded candidates in mainland UK as well, and lets take an even more flighty step they won power in both the UK the Ireland, next elections. Now I know they don't take their sears in WM, but if this happened I'm sure they would, the whole scenario would be very interesting...

Katie Hopkins will go APESHIT....

BlodwynPig

  • I’m deffo a AI bot, but i don’t even know it
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #86 on: February 09, 2020, 06:21:13 PM »
As Sinn Féin is a cross border party, and going on a flight of fantasy, let's say they fielded candidates in mainland UK as well, and lets take an even more flighty step they won power in both the UK the Ireland, next elections. Now I know they don't take their sears in WM, but if this happened I'm sure they would, the whole scenario would be very interesting...

Katie Hopkins will go APESHIT....

"Troubling rumours of Sinn Fein's links to the Corbyn" headlines to follow ;)

Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #87 on: February 09, 2020, 06:31:41 PM »


If this is right, fuck knows what kind of Franken-government we're gonna get. The best news of the day was the gargoyle Joan Burton losing her seat, Shane Ross out on his hole, and Gemma O'Doherty being a non-entity. Don't think Labour will survive as a party after this, their brand is poison to their voter base.

Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #88 on: February 09, 2020, 06:36:08 PM »
"Troubling rumours of Sinn Fein's links to the Corbyn" headlines to follow ;)

I'd love that, me and my bro row about Corbyn - SF - IRA all the time, he hates him!

Poirots BigGarlickyCorpse

  • Le corpse garlique of Hercule Poirot
Re: The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020
« Reply #89 on: February 09, 2020, 06:42:40 PM »
It's either confidence and supply, a "Grand Coalition" or FF/SF or FG/SF. I can't see FF and FG doing a Grand Coalition because unless everyone gets a free house and a pallet of drink for life they'll both be out on their arses come 2025 and it's pretty clear who'll capitalise on it (barring a broad alliance of the Left). Confidence and supply would give both FF and FG what they want, with one of them in the driving seat but the other able to yank the rug from under them if they want.

A coalition with Sinn Féin would mean an embarrassing climbdown for both FF and FG who said no way no how to such a thing. However, they could certainly spin it as "respecting people's desire for change". And any time FF or FG go into coalition with another party, it's always the other party who crashes and burns in the next election.

Sinn Féin might - might - be able to cobble together some class of an alliance with Labour, Greens etc. depending on how they all do. Aontú are basically pro-life Sinn Féin and might pick up transfers from elected Sinn Féin candidates. Again though if they managed to pull that off and then don't deliver on at least some of their promises the electorate will put them out in 2025.

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