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The 10th Circle of Hell: Irish General Election 2020

Started by buttgammon, January 15, 2020, 01:36:49 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

peanutbutter

FF/FG and mayyyhbe Labour is surely a solid bet? Not exactly sure what Labour have to lose, they're dead anyway

EOLAN

Aontù would benefit mostly from Sinn Frin transfers around the border and other rural areas. Where the vote is more linked to nationalism than the left wing down in the cities. Probably more conservative than Fine Gael for the city transfers.



NoOffenceLynn

Leo has not even been elected on the 2nd vote transfers.

Poirots BigGarlickyCorpse

Quote from: peanutbutter on February 09, 2020, 06:49:28 PM
FF/FG and mayyyhbe Labour is surely a solid bet? Not exactly sure what Labour have to lose, they're dead anyway
FF and FG will never coalition. People will realise they're basically the same.

EOLAN

Quote from: NoOffenceLynn on February 09, 2020, 07:22:08 PM
Leo has not even been elected on the 2nd vote transfers.

Well they were coming from Sinn Fèin so ni surprise there. If his running mate was somewhat compettiive you could have some excuse. Although party leader isn't as much a boost for Fine Gael leaders as it is for Fianna Fáil in the local constituencies.

peanutbutter

Quote from: Poirots BigGarlickyCorpse on February 09, 2020, 07:30:23 PM
FF and FG will never coalition. People will realise they're basically the same.
Maybe not officially but I'd say after the last 4 years people are realising that anyway

finnquark

Interesting seeing the UK media still failing to learn about Ireland in any significant way. Sebastian Payne from the Telegraph saying Varadkar has lost his constituency, fucking idiot.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

Is that the Sebastian Payne whose mugshot looks like a younger version of Will from the Inbetweeners



It is. Ouch.

Shoulders?-Stomach!


Shoulders?-Stomach!


SteK

Quote from: finnquark on February 09, 2020, 07:46:43 PM
Interesting seeing the UK media still failing to learn about Ireland in any significant way. Sebastian Payne from the Telegraph saying Varadkar has lost his constituency, fucking idiot.

I think the UK assume Ireland still follows UK style law, etc, which it mostly does, ie P45's etc, but there are differences.

Like fucking loads of tax, PRSI and the so-called temporary USC

Poirots BigGarlickyCorpse

Paschal Donohue being interviewed on RTÉ while a count is being called in the background and people are cheering but I have no clue why because he's rabbitting on

Shoulders?-Stomach!

What's the story with Irish Labour anyway? Why didn't they, the Greens and the Solidarity types try and form a pact? You'd have got a fair percentage out of that.

Genuine question, I know almost as little about Irish politics as a Westminster lobby correspondent.


EOLAN

Quote from: Shoulders?-Stomach! on February 09, 2020, 08:50:53 PM
What's the story with Irish Labour anyway? Why didn't they, the Greens and the Solidarity types try and form a pact? You'd have got a fair percentage out of that.

Genuine question, I know almost as little about Irish politics as a Westminster lobby correspondent.

Well the split is the great tradition of Irish Politics. And throw the left into it to double the propensity for splitting.
Irish politics allows transferable votes all the way down, so technically if every left-wing party transferred within, the end result would be the same number of votes; with a greater chance for seats.

See Sinn Fein running the board early getting all the seats on first counts but not pulling in many running mates in multiple seat constituencies, allowing the other two parties to close the gap or overtake them later.

Also; when a left party gets a support role in Government, there is usually further splits by people who either disagree with the right wing policies driven by coalition partners/get upset at not getting a ministerial seat/ see it as best chance to retain seat when the minor coalition partner takes a kicking at the next election.

EOLAN

#105
And Leo is elected.

I like how announcing the numbers in Irish in Donegal leads to absolutely no reactions from audience. Like in the same-sex marriage referendum when the result clearly saw the Yes side win but no hint of a reaction from the crowd.

buttgammon

Still extraordinary scenes almost everywhere - I keep expecting SF's gains to slow down, but it looks like this is only going to happen when virtually all of their candidates have been elected.

Burton's gone now, which isn't a surprise.

SteK

Quote from: buttgammon on February 09, 2020, 09:28:53 PM
Still extraordinary scenes almost everywhere - I keep expecting SF's gains to slow down, but it looks like this is only going to happen when virtually all of their candidates have been elected.

Burton's gone now, which isn't a surprise.

Bet SF are rueing they didn't stand more candidates...

buttgammon

Quote from: SteK on February 09, 2020, 09:32:40 PM
Bet SF are rueing they didn't stand more candidates...

Absolutely! They must be at least ten seats short of their vote at this stage.

EOLAN

Quote from: buttgammon on February 09, 2020, 09:42:11 PM
Absolutely! They must be at least ten seats short of their vote at this stage.

Bad European and local elections last summer. On the positive saw them refocus and have a refreshed focus strategy but on other hand had them being conservative in their targeting of seats. Looking to.protect and hold rather than push and gain.

A couple of Sinn Fein candidates who couldn't even win a local council seat 8 months ago now topping the poll and getting elected on first count.

buttgammon

Quote from: EOLAN on February 09, 2020, 09:52:53 PM
Bad European and local elections last summer. On the positive saw them refocus and have a refreshed focus strategy but on other hand had them being conservative in their targeting of seats. Looking to.protect and hold rather than push and gain..

Fair point. I was thinking what a killing they'd have made in Dublin South-West, but remembered that they ran two candidates here last time and one didn't do at all well.

On a totally unrelated note, is Ossian Smyth's name really pronounced the same as Oisín? I've heard it so many times on RTÉ, but have an inherent mistrust of their pronunciations considering most of the same say 'Finner Gweel'.

buttgammon

UCD projection: FF 45, SF 37, FG 36. Surely that would more or less leave an FF-SF coalition/other arrangement between those two parties the only viable option?

EOLAN

Quote from: buttgammon on February 09, 2020, 10:00:49 PM
UCD projection: FF 45, SF 37, FG 36. Surely that would more or less leave an FF-SF coalition/other arrangement between those two parties the only viable option?

That or FF/FG coalition but that would be the death knell of those parties. Can be a few gene-pool indeoendents given local favours to strengthen the solidity of either of those governments.

Dog Botherer

looks like unless SF can duct tape a left coalition together there'll be another election fairly soon. you'd have to think that SF would run a much better campaign of the back of these results and get a much larger seat share.



buttgammon

Some mad stuff overnight - a Social Democrat in Cork South-West jumping from fifth on first preferences to take the last seat in a three-seater, elected with Sinn Féin surplus. Looks like they'll take that seat back from Stephen Donnelly in Wicklow too.

BlodwynPig

Quote from: buttgammon on February 10, 2020, 10:09:08 AM
Some mad stuff overnight - a Social Democrat in Cork South-West jumping from fifth on first preferences to take the last seat in a three-seater, elected with Sinn Féin surplus. Looks like they'll take that seat back from Stephen Donnelly in Wicklow too.

The English could learn a lot from the Irish

buttgammon

Quote from: BlodwynPig on February 10, 2020, 10:10:08 AM
The English could learn a lot from the Irish

Proportional representation is the decisive factor behind so much that happens in Irish politics. First past the post is simply embarrassing by comparison.

Cuellar

Lots of Brexiters on twitter saying 'omg Varadkar lost his seat, bet the EU will make them recount the votes until he gets in [crylaughing]'