US Elections 2020 II - Bernie Topwin: "We'll see this trashcan dream come true"

[Urinal Cake]

Trump really wants a second term to join the pantheon of great men (except Obama). The Courts are in his favour so even if the Democrats were serious about a legal recourse they'd get fucked over. He gets off on being the law and order President so any protests/riots will just strengthen his base and the Republicans. In the end I expect people will just grow apathetic about politics if he wins.

[rjd2]

i dont think Trump is going to win, the week after Brexit i was  80 percent certain he would win, due to his outsider rhetoric, he reminded me so much of Nigel Farage the way he invigorated people against the establishment, i just imagined rural American county after country voting for him .... i saw so many similarities but all that is gone this time and he has not delivered.

He wasn't elected to deliver Zombie Reagan but my God he has!

The appointment of Barrett will help with the social conservatives but looking at all the polls .,,,its whitey who is the issue. College educated whites and many women have deserted him and despite some moderate progress with other demographics that won't be enough to make up for the loss of the white voters. Obviously struggling with seniors due to corona and they all love Biden unlike Hilary.

People always talk about how he fires up his base, but look at all the special elections last few years mainly the 2018 mid terms and its clear their is a huge amount of people who are infuriated and are already early voting.

Struggling in the polls in key states, supposedly huge voter enthusiasm to vote him out, 200k dead and an economic depression, brave man to bet him to win from here.

[Mr Farenheit]

I really hope you're right, but it's not like there isn't precedent. I don't think it's a huge leap to imagine a scenario where these groups attempt to bully their way into mail-in ballot counts in order to (GIANT FINGER QUOTES) prevent fraud.

Yeah, i reckon there'll be lots of this kind of stuff. Roger Stone has already advocated this. Easy to imagine goons (maybe with body warmers and assault rifles?) picketing or breaking into locations where counts are being held. If its true that some states take a week or something to count votes (which does seems mental) then you have escalating daily scenes on the news.

[Mister Six]

proxy war with China by 2022 if he gets in. you heard it here first.

Not sure where that would take place though. China's colonisation/intervention is economic, not military. Only regions that seem applicable/plausible are Kashmir (with India) or North Korea, and the possibility of nuclear fuckdown is too great to let that happen. Xinjiang, with separatists? But Beijing's control is totally overwhelming, there's no avenue for that. Taiwan? But that's never going to be more than a doomed last stand unless the US get directly involved (as we'll probably discover before 2022 anyway).

[greenman]

Not sure where that would take place though. China's colonisation/intervention is economic, not military. Only regions that seem applicable/plausible are Kashmir (with India) or North Korea, and the possibility of nuclear fuckdown is too great to let that happen. Xinjiang, with separatists? But Beijing's control is totally overwhelming, there's no avenue for that. Taiwan? But that's never going to be more than a doomed last stand unless the US get directly involved (as we'll probably discover before 2022 anyway).

With Taiwan I'm guessing the most likely flashpoint could be someone in power making overtures to the Chinese and then a military coup(with typical suspicion of US involvement) happening, potentially both sides becoming involved to prop up their interests,

Maybe some kind of incident in the standoff with the Philippines? exactly whats happening in Africa seems quite hard to judge, maybe a situation of political power shift that puts Chinese/US assets at risk?

[Dex Sawash]

Has anyone looked at 538 (paging fwb) When I go I always get distracted by the NBA predictions and I don't even watch NBA.

[Ferris]

Has anyone looked at 538 (paging fwb) When I go I always get distracted by the NBA predictions and I don't even watch NBA.

Biden 77/23 trump last I checked.

The same odds as the last election night, so make of that what you will.

[idunnosomename]

the shitshow is there is no way that trump is not going to contest the election if biden wins. hence the RBG fiasco.

I mean that will be probably the first time he truly acts like an actual fascist but hes so unhinged I wont put it past him

[ajsmith2]

Wonder how South Park will approach this election seeing as they got their hands burnt last time.

[Mister Six]

With Taiwan I'm guessing the most likely flashpoint could be someone in power making overtures to the Chinese and then a military coup(with typical suspicion of US involvement) happening, potentially both sides becoming involved to prop up their interests,

Someone in power where? A military coup by whom on whom?

Maybe some kind of incident in the standoff with the Philippines?

By whom? In what way? The Philippines won't do shit - Duterte has admitted China overpowers them. And China's still trying to play the respectable card while pushing its nine-dash line nonsense. Can't see that changing right now, especially given the dire straits it's economy is in, and the way the West is hardening against it. Better to play for good PR and keep bleating about hegemonic bullying.

exactly whats happening in Africa seems quite hard to judge, maybe a situation of political power shift that puts Chinese/US assets at risk?

America doesn't seem to give a shit about Africa. Even Pompeo's big "let's support Africa" drive earlier this year amounted to promising a few million in lending (compared to the billions China lends) and warning of Chinese debt traps. The warning is fair enough, but it's hard to imagine the US giving enough of a shit about Africa (regardless of its resources) when its energies are so heavily tangled up in the Middle East and East Asia.

[kenneth trousers]

Biden 77/23 trump last I checked.
The same odds as the last election night, so make of that what you will.

I've been listening to the 538 podcasts and that 77/23 is after the expected narrowing of the polls on election day by the same amount as 2016. If the election were today Trump has an around 10% chance. Nate Silver hasn't really explained his thought process and it's left me a bit confused as in another 538 podcast he mentions that the 2018 midterms were some of the most accurate polls ever.

[chveik]

are people still listening to Nate Silver?

[Cuellar]

Who else you gonna listen to

[chveik]

fair enough

[Dog Botherer]

Nate Silver was massively out predicted by a joke pundit named Carl Diggler, invented by two Chapo hosts. he is not to be taken seriously.

the DigCast was really funny, they should take another run at it again.

[backdrifter]

I think his numbers game is still top notch.

It's his commentary that sucks.

[greenman]

Someone in power where? A military coup by whom on whom?

In Taiwan.

By whom? In what way? The Philippines won't do shit - Duterte has admitted China overpowers them. And China's still trying to play the respectable card while pushing its nine-dash line nonsense. Can't see that changing right now, especially given the dire straits it's economy is in, and the way the West is hardening against it. Better to play for good PR and keep bleating about hegemonic bullying.

If anything happens I'm guessing it would be some kind of unplanned escalation during a stand off.

America doesn't seem to give a shit about Africa. Even Pompeo's big "let's support Africa" drive earlier this year amounted to promising a few million in lending (compared to the billions China lends) and warning of Chinese debt traps. The warning is fair enough, but it's hard to imagine the US giving enough of a shit about Africa (regardless of its resources) when its energies are so heavily tangled up in the Middle East and East Asia.

Probably moreso on the Chinese side then, someone coming to power and looking to write off debt but I admit my knowledge of any specifics is poor.

[Mr Banlon]

Trump's former campaign manager Brad Parscale has been sectioned. He had earlier armed himself, barricaded himself in his home, and threatened to off himself.

[jobotic]

Trump claiming that Biden takes performance enhancing drugs. "Look on the internet".

If he does they're fucking shit.

I won't have what he's having! Eh?

[Phil_A]

Trump claiming that Biden takes performance enhancing drugs. "Look on the internet".

I knew there was something shifty going on when Biden won gold in the triathlon at the 2018 Olympics.

Even more so considering it was the Youth Olympics.

[DrGreggles]

I knew there was something shifty going on when Biden won gold in the triathlon at the 2018 Olympics.

Even more so considering it was the Youth Olympics.

Captain Tom was robbed!

[C_Larence]

Trump claiming that Biden takes performance enhancing drugs. "Look on the internet".

If he does they're fucking shit.

I won't have what he's having! Eh?

The theory is that they pump him full of something before debates, not all the time. If you look at his performance in the final debate against Bernie, he was much more alert, which I remember an anchor actually praising him for after lmao. Then he disappeared for over a week, which people theorised was because he had to recover from the unholy cocktail of drugs they'd probably injected into his bleeding eyeballs.


In other news, Kamala has called Tupac the best rapper alive. Not important news by any means, but made me laugh.
www.nypost.com/2020/09/25/kamala-harris-names-tupac-best-rapper-alive

[Sebastian Cobb]

Didn't they do that with all the old bastards running the GDR as it was falling apart?

[C_Larence]

Didn't they do that with all the old bastards running the GDR as it was falling apart?

Ask them who their favourite rappers were?

[Old Nehamkin]

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1310611212384833538

Biden transition adds Cindy McCain to advisory board.
"Diversity of ideology and background is a core value of the transition, and today's announcement is another step demonstrating the importance of unifying the country under a Biden-Harris administration" they say in a release

[EOLAN]

Transitioning to the Republican Party?

[Mister Six]

Are we going to end up in a position where there are three parties? GOP for the lunatic fundamentalists and racists, Dems for the MOR corporate psychopaths and smug liberals, and a third party for actual progressives and people who are presently under 30?

[Dog Botherer]

looking increasingly likely that it'll be the Republican Party for the Q psychos, the Democratic Party for the Republicans and the libs, and everyone else can go fuck themselves

[idunnosomename]

vote kamala get tupac back

[EOLAN]

Was getting a little annoyed with the John Oliver show this week. Arguing that America isn't centre-right and then shows a graphic with 49% being Democrat leaning and 42% being Republican leaning. How does this not show that America is at least to the centre right.
Then stating that their is a lurch rightwards in the Republicans without mentioning how the Democrats are aiming to become the Republicans of the Bush era.