Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links

[likeAndrewNeilonatrain]

Loads of bogroll and soap in corner shops

[jobotic]

May be of some use, to those feeling overwhelmed:

https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-how-to-keep-the-coronavirus-anxiety-at-bay/amp?fbclid=IwAR2MsPPsl4o1yVbzVZt9mA2nsMoT3ylFJwZiRJ_9zvemBVk9hcpt46Id4rQ

That's me! Thanks

[Barry Admin]

use the ignore script

Had to give up and start using this myself. I know it was petty to change that thread title, but I'm pretty fragile at the minute, and have people trying to fuck with me IRL pretty much every day. I come on here to try and get away from that, but some people are always digging for a reaction, going as far as to trail round threads and sub-forums they're otherwise completely disinterested in just to get a rise out of me and others. Months of that does take a toll, and reducing high levels of tramadol fucks with your emotions and stuff, so if anyone can help me get a "find and replace" script running for Tampermonkey, I'd appreciate it, and would be better set to face the apocalypse thanks. 

[Sheffield Wednesday]

Mind have come up with some really good advice for dealing with the anxiety this situation may cause.

https://www.mind.org.uk/information-support/coronavirus-and-your-wellbeing/

Hope you can get the script working and ignore people trying to get a rise.

[Blue Jam]

The first vaccine trial starts today in the US:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51906604

[Emma Raducanu]

Trump's already bagsied exclusivity.

[Zetetic]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths

Or just read the Imperial etc. report if you prefer:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

tl;dr Mitigation/slow spread approach isn't going to work very well. Suppression (South Korea, China named - noting that these are not the same) likely required for a year at least if you don't want demand for critical care to massiveness outstrip capacity.

Suppression characterised by preventing (internal, if I understand correctly) spread/reproduction.

Lack of clarity about viability of long-term suppression is noted.

[pancreas]

Let it rip through and dig the mass graves. Can't lock down a country for a year.

[gib]

Let it rip through and dig the mass graves. Can't lock down a country for a year.

Yeah.

Who'd pull the pint at the local pub? Where'd I get my fags? Who'd empty out my dustbins? Would I still get plastic bags?

[pancreas]

Yeah.

Who'd pull the pint at the local pub? Where'd I get my fags? Who'd empty out my dustbins? Would I still get plastic bags?

Yeah, and food.

[ZoyzaSorris]

Yes, under the current social setup long term suppression of all activity will cause complete catastrophic collapse of the economy causing a hell of a lot more deaths than Covid.

[olliebean]

SERIOUS POST:

This is interesting- and important- info:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection

Lay off the ibuprofen. Paracetemol or GTFO.

Health officials point out that anti-inflammatory drugs are known to be a risk for those with infectious illnesses because they tend to diminish the response of the body's immune system.

TBH when I read this my immediate thought was, why the fuck is this information not printed prominently on every pack of ibuprofen? Seems like a pretty important thing to know if you're thinking of taking it, regardless of coronavirus.

[Zetetic]

Because usually it's fine, and there are unhelpful risks associated with paracetamol[nb]i.e. it's absolutely fine until it's not and you're going to die in a matter of hours[/nb] that mean giving people a choice of mixing it with NSAIDs is worthwhile on balance I guess.

But, generally paracetamol for fevers.

[gib]

Because usually it's fine, and there are unhelpful risks associated with paracetamol[nb]i.e. it's absolutely fine until it's not and you're going to die in a matter of hours[/nb] that mean giving people a choice of mixing it with NSAIDs is worthwhile on balance I guess.

But, generally paracetamol for fevers.

it's not easy to get hold of now, and for once it isn't down to those parrots in the jungle

[olliebean]

I thought I was running low on paracetamol and missed my chance to replenish my modest stock of it, then I remembered that for some reason that now escapes me I bought a shit-load of store-brand Lemsip before Christmas, each sachet of which contains a full adult dose of paracetamol, so that's one less worry at least.

[ZoyzaSorris]

I thought the actual life threatening part of Covid was due to over-reaction of the immune system and the resulting tissue damage from excessive inflammation so I'm a bit confused by this.

[Zetetic]

Lightly suppressing your immune system in the early stages of an illness isn't the same as preventing or treating sepsis or ARDS.

[Johnny Yesno]

The #BorisResign hashtag is trending and threw up a couple of bits of interesting/outrageous information:

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23BorisResign&src=trend_click



and https://twitter.com/JohnGHart/status/1239479304003731457

The whole of the EU has started a major ventilator drive and will relocate resources to each member state as their situation peaks. They have generously decided to count the UK as a member state for this project despite our 'do-nothing' policy.

[Johnny Yesno]

As usual, the Novara analysis is good and covers some of the stuff Zetetic has mentioned:

Coping With Corona - The NHS and COVID-19: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gRpxGoHyY8

It's good analysis but not good news, I'm afraid.

[Sheffield Wednesday]

To summarise then:

They've realised in the last couple of days that mitigation will still result in 250,000 deaths and ICU facilities overwhelmed by a factor of 8.

They identify full suppression (school & university closures, enforced social distancing) for 18 months would guarantee the reproductive rate of the virus to drop below 1, i.e. stopping the spread.

They recognise that this is not feasible in the UK (for economic, supply and civil unrest reasons, most likely) and so are suggesting adaptive suppression for the next 18 months whereby they switch on the measures whenever the number of ICU cases reaches a set threshold:



Anyone want to extend or challenge these conclusions?

[Sheffield Wednesday]

Come ead Zetetic you graph raper pull your finger out mate. Some of us are working round the clock on this stuff.

[ZoyzaSorris]

Lightly suppressing your immune system in the early stages of an illness isn't the same as preventing or treating sepsis or ARDS.

Right I see - so in the early part then you want to keep your immune system as strong as poss (so anti-inflammatories not helpful), and hopefully stop it from progressing to the second phase where the immune system and excessive inflammation can start causing damage (and fingers crossed you are in medical care where what painkillers you are taking becomes a small beer issue in the grand scheme of keeping you alive). Makes sense.

[Inspector Norse]

My favourite thing about coronavirus is that every day you can go on the internet and read things by dozens of EXPERTS and MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS and OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT SCIENCE ADVISORS and EPIDEMIOLOGISTS and RESEARCHERS and they all fucking contradict one another.

[Sheffield Wednesday]

GRAVE RAPER VS DJ CORONA

[jobotic]

My favourite thing about coronavirus is that every day you can go on the internet and read things by dozens of EXPERTS and MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS and OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT SCIENCE ADVISORS and EPIDEMIOLOGISTS and RESEARCHERS and they all fucking contradict one another.

You have to pick one. I'm only listening to what someone's uncle says.

[Zetetic]

They recognise that this is not feasible in the UK (for economic, supply and civil unrest reasons, most likely) and so are suggesting adaptive suppression for the next 18 months whereby they switch on the measures whenever the number of ICU cases reaches a set threshold:

I think this is a fantasy. The lack of knowledge about community spread combined with the lag-time from infection to need for hospitalisation and the lack of critical care capacity makes this extremely ... twitchy.

At what threshold would you turn the measures off? Has the UK ever met this threshold?

The paper talks about 50 (COVID-19, I assume) ICU cases per week being the trigger, but what about variation in other demands for critical care? Will the background measures limit this?

Perhaps I'm being pessimistic. I'm not sure that this suggestion in the Imperial paper represents four-nations policy; did the press conference clarify what the actual plan is,.or just what it isn't?

[Inspector Norse]

You have to pick one. I'm only listening to what someone's uncle says.

I'm going with that military rations Youtube guy someone posted on the other thread then.

[bgmnts]

My favourite thing about coronavirus is that every day you can go on the internet and read things by dozens of EXPERTS and MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS and OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT SCIENCE ADVISORS and EPIDEMIOLOGISTS and RESEARCHERS and they all fucking contradict one another.

This applies to almost anything to be fair.

[Inspector Norse]

This applies to almost anything to be fair.

Yeah that's true.

But conflicting instructions for how to boil an egg perfectly somehow feel a bit less frustrating than this

[Sheffield Wednesday]

I think this is a fantasy. The lack of knowledge about community spread combined with the lag-time from infection to need for hospitalisation and the lack of critical care capacity makes this extremely ... twitchy.

At what threshold would you turn the measures off? Has the UK ever met this threshold?

The paper talks about 50 (COVID-19, I assume) ICU cases per week being the trigger, but what about variation in other demands for critical care? Will the background measures limit this?

Perhaps I'm being pessimistic. I'm not sure that this suggestion in the Imperial paper represents four-nations policy; did the press conference clarify what the actual plan is,.or just what it isn't?

Agreed that it's very uncertain and that the data doesn't yet exist to be able to know now what that threshold will be, both on and off, but now that we're largely in line with the rest of the world - and that adaptive suppression will surely become the global strategy - we will at least have some data to inform those decisions.

While I think it's a shitter that we didn't shut down sooner, and perhaps buy planning and testing time, we're now in a position where we need to either suppress this or take the hit. You weren't keen on early suppression and now you're not keen on adaptive suppression. To go back to the video circulating by the Irish fella, speed is the key. The great is the enemy of the good, etc.

We will have to adapt and learn as we go along because it's completely unknown.

As I've said a couple of times, if you're paralysed by rhetoric, you might as well do nothing, anyway. What exactly do you think we should do?

Not issuing a challenge to identify the perfect solution, just encouraging suggestion rather than dismissal.