Author Topic: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links  (Read 8736 times)

Twit 2

  • Fuck me, Graham!
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #60 on: March 14, 2020, 07:14:35 PM »
Thinking of dying from this for a laugh.

chveik

  • JAZZ SNOB EAT SHIT
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #61 on: March 14, 2020, 09:11:20 PM »
what does this nudge theory entail exactly in this context?

pancreas

  • The islets of Langerhans are the very best islets
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #62 on: March 14, 2020, 09:20:43 PM »
That people are conspiracy theorists?

pancreas

  • The islets of Langerhans are the very best islets

shiftwork2

  • pies this is your time
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #64 on: March 14, 2020, 10:03:03 PM »
Thinking of dying from this for a laugh.

At last, a ray of sunshine. 

alright cheers

oy vey

  • [sic]
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #65 on: March 15, 2020, 09:55:03 AM »
In the spirit of the thread, Joe Rogan interviews Michael Osterholm (infectious disease researcher type): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&t=1876s

Good tip on face masks. Surgical masks as we know are useless. N95 or N99 respirator mask excellent. All make you look like a cunt, however you will be protected from all kinds of external cuntiness.

Zetetic

  • Burying isn't the same as killing.
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #66 on: March 15, 2020, 11:52:58 AM »
Still utterly unclear how quarantining people who need personal care and ongoing monitoring is going to work for weeks, at scale.

It's going to be interesting to see what bank and agency spend looks like by September.

Dewt

  • The Fun House Grand Prix
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #67 on: March 15, 2020, 02:07:38 PM »
Seems that there's an emphasis on quarantining versus social distancing now (social distancing essentially being quarantining-lite, just try to not go out much and stay six feet away from people).

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #68 on: March 15, 2020, 04:02:37 PM »
In the spirit of the thread, Joe Rogan interviews Michael Osterholm (infectious disease researcher type): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&t=1876s

Good tip on face masks. Surgical masks as we know are useless. N95 or N99 respirator mask excellent. All make you look like a cunt, however you will be protected from all kinds of external cuntiness.

I thought this was an interesting interview as he seems very credible, with an impressive CV, and he pretty much dismisses the idea that hand washing is helpful at all for this crisis. He also seemed to support the herd immunity theory too.

Dewt

  • The Fun House Grand Prix
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #69 on: March 15, 2020, 04:16:52 PM »
Still utterly unclear how quarantining people who need personal care and ongoing monitoring is going to work for weeks, at scale.
I mean this is the (dumbed-down) theory: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

You surely can't have "no idea". You can disagree with ideas that are presented but you clearly have some idea.

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #70 on: March 15, 2020, 04:20:59 PM »
Two long podcasts by Sam Harris on Corona:

https://youtu.be/E9vIUtXa9ug

https://youtu.be/xwE0ldRtwGA

Blue Jam

  • No rice! No glitter! No bubbles! No litter!
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #71 on: March 15, 2020, 04:32:54 PM »
Joe Rogan and Ham Sarris? Hmmmm.

Dewt

  • The Fun House Grand Prix
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #72 on: March 15, 2020, 04:37:04 PM »
Joe Rogan and Ham Sarris? Hmmmm.
Yeah seriously

Can't wait to be dying and say "at least I listened to some past-it scientists trying to develop careers as talking heads making appearances on shows hosted by the world's biggest dipshits"

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #73 on: March 15, 2020, 04:40:17 PM »
Yeah seriously

Can't wait to be dying and say "at least I listened to some past-it scientists trying to develop careers as talking heads making appearances on shows hosted by the world's biggest dipshits"

What makes you think those scientists are past-it? Genuine question.

Dewt

  • The Fun House Grand Prix
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #74 on: March 15, 2020, 04:42:20 PM »
I'm talking about the boring Rogan link, I didn't look at your boring link TBH

Zetetic

  • Burying isn't the same as killing.
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #75 on: March 15, 2020, 04:44:59 PM »
I mean this is the (dumbed-down) theory: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
No, that's about slowing spread down through the population as a whole.


Quote
You surely can't have "no idea". You can disagree with ideas that are presented but you clearly have some idea.
I understand flattening the curve, but the UK's claimed approach doesn't resemble that.

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #76 on: March 15, 2020, 04:46:17 PM »
What makes you think those scientists are past-it? Genuine question.

More like what makes you think these past-its are scientists?


<rob brydon the trip yeah>

Dewt

  • The Fun House Grand Prix
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #77 on: March 15, 2020, 04:47:01 PM »
No, that's about slowing spread down through the population as a whole.

I understand flattening the curve, but the UK's claimed approach doesn't resemble that.
I'm with you there. The UK is putting the Super Noodles in before the water boils.

The US strategy is "Red Robin, Yum!".

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #78 on: March 15, 2020, 04:47:19 PM »
I understand flattening the curve, but the UK's approach doesn't resemble that.

Exactly this.

This was my point about the bucket metaphor, people have now convinced themselves they understand the flattening of the curve because some centrist dad taught them it with two buckets.  It doesn't make sense because the UK isn't slowing the number of cases now, it is (apparently) about flattening the curve at the sombrero peak next winter, which is subject to "herd immunity", which might not be a thing for Cv-19.

It is a contradictory mess.

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #79 on: March 15, 2020, 04:53:44 PM »

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #80 on: March 15, 2020, 04:55:05 PM »
I'm talking about the boring Rogan link, I didn't look at your boring link TBH

I appreciate your honesty

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #81 on: March 15, 2020, 04:57:48 PM »
Have we had this yet? https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ - some rather nice animated simulations there that I found easier to understand than that damn bucket. Just imagine a horizontal line on the graphs representing NHS treatment capacity.

Blue Jam

  • No rice! No glitter! No bubbles! No litter!
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #82 on: March 15, 2020, 04:59:47 PM »
What makes you think those scientists are past-it? Genuine question.

What makes you think Joe Rogan and Ham Sarris are scientists?

Has Ricky Gervais given us his opinion yet? He's an atheist so he must be clever.

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #83 on: March 15, 2020, 05:02:14 PM »
Up to date infection, death, and recovery stats: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ - the link is for the UK page but there are links there for other countries and worldwide stats.

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #84 on: March 15, 2020, 05:02:49 PM »
Not far in yet, but loving the part where Joe Rogan derails an interesting and helpful discussion by asking whether sitting in the sauna will cure coronavirus by melting the viruses.

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #85 on: March 15, 2020, 05:14:20 PM »
This was my point about the bucket metaphor, people have now convinced themselves they understand the flattening of the curve because some centrist dad taught them it with two buckets.  It doesn't make sense because the UK isn't slowing the number of cases now, it is (apparently) about flattening the curve at the sombrero peak next winter, which is subject to "herd immunity", which might not be a thing for Cv-19.

I think you misunderstand the goal if you are still repeating this 'herd immunity' thing. I said similar before when you saw the phrase in my post and misinterpreted what I had said.

You also got cross about the phrasing 'work closely with industry' as if I were giving a press release. It's a deliberately vague expression because it means 'they will have to do a massive amount of work to support public the public and private sectors if they are to protect the economy and its workforce - both of which are essential no matter our level of lockdown'.

I don't know what your suggestion is or the specifics of your concerns. I see a lot of political anger, which I share, but it's seemingly directed at strawmen and based on misunderstandings.

I'm not having a go at you, I'm trying to get some clearer engagement with these ideas rather than a burst of emotion. I know that's rich coming from me but that's what I'm asking you for, if possible.

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #86 on: March 15, 2020, 05:15:46 PM »
Have we had this yet? https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ - some rather nice animated simulations there that I found easier to understand than that damn bucket. Just imagine a horizontal line on the graphs representing NHS treatment capacity.

It is infintely better than the bucket example.

I like it but Brownian motion isn't a great model for human behaviour, cases are clustered and likely infect clusters around them.  It also assumes that immnity breeds lasting immunity which isn't clear.

It does absolutely demonstrate that if you want to flatten the curve then the government is doing the opposite.

Zetetic

  • Burying isn't the same as killing.
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #87 on: March 15, 2020, 05:16:51 PM »
Up to date infection, death, and recovery stats
There no up-to-date infection stats. They do not exist.

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #88 on: March 15, 2020, 05:21:10 PM »
There no up-to-date infection stats. They do not exist.

Fair enough. Up to date confirmed cases stats.

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #89 on: March 15, 2020, 06:03:00 PM »
I think you misunderstand the goal if you are still repeating this 'herd immunity' thing. I said similar before when you saw the phrase in my post and misinterpreted what I had said.

Sounds like you are trying to say I don't understand the "science" maybe you can tell me where i'm wrong.

flattening the curve (as the bucket man says and the government outriders have pounced on) is the process of reducing the flow of cases so services do not get overwhelmed.  A policy the UK government appears at present to not be persuing.  As many people have highlighted with the FTC graphs line that neatly balances with medical demand, the bucket is several magnitudes of being over generous in terms of NHS capacity.  It doesn't take much for exponential infection rates to overwhelm the low bar which is NHS capacity.  This is what has happened in Italy.

herd immunity was later brought into the conversation by the government as the idea of shifting the peak to a time with less seasonal demand on the NHS.  The government appears to be persuing this and is now clumsly briefing about isolating the 70+ group.  The idea being that herd immunity reduces the transmission rate in 4 months time.  This is about the sombrero peak that is modelled on the flu pandemic in 1918 (in which the second wave killled most people).  This is what the government have now said they want to avoid seemingly as a reason for contradicting their previous press briefing about flattening the curve.

So the idea appears to a be a hotchpotch of the two, an initial lax policy on infection control, then isolation of vunerable groups and this runs contrary to the science that tells you how to flatten the curve.  There are lots of reasons for this which we can go into when you drop this "you just don't understand the science" PR bullshit that the government has clearly started trying to throw out as criticism of its incoherent strategy has grown.

regardless of whether I agree with the strategy or not (i think it has some merits in a difficult situation) i'm not convinced by it seemingly contradictory explanation or the fact that contigency planning appears to be an after thought in all of this.

Quote
You also got cross about the phrasing 'work closely with industry' as if I were giving a press release. It's a deliberately vague expression because it means 'they will have to do a massive amount of work to support public the public and private sectors if they are to protect the economy and its workforce - both of which are essential no matter our level of lockdown'.

Nope,  I said it was weasel words, you say it is deliberately vague.  I don't see any disagreement here.  Your second statement is much better.

Quote
I don't know what your suggestion is or the specifics of your concerns. I see a lot of political anger, which I share, but it's seemingly directed at strawmen and based on misunderstandings.

I'm not having a go at you, I'm trying to get some clearer engagement with these ideas rather than a burst of emotion. I know that's rich coming from me but that's what I'm asking you for, if possible.

It's probably about now that I delve into how utterly tedious you are, as a grown man on an internet forum constantly typing disingenious shite that you can later go "ahhhh that was the joke".  I mean generally it's fine and sometimes you can definitely hit a turn of phrase that sparks a gentle smile on this old communists maw, but mainly i'm just here thinking about those kids at school that were always vying for attention, any attention, good or bad.  I remember this one kid (known as the baboonfaced boy as it happens) who once dared himself to eat all of the satchets of ketchup, mustard, salt and vinegar in the school cafeteria.  I remember the weird glint of desperation and arousal in his eyes as he glugged down another satchet of condiment to a crowd of contemporaries growing ever bigger, stronger and louder.  You know I think in that moment he felt that he had some control over these people perhaps.  Of course not long after his performance he appeared to have suffered a petit-heart attack from hypernetremia and was rushed to hospital.  I often wonder what became of him : (


Anyway keep on keeping on you little rascal.

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