Author Topic: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links  (Read 11249 times)

Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« on: March 14, 2020, 09:42:19 AM »
I think it's worth a thread for up-to-date information rather than discussion or speculation. Might become a useful resource at some point.

___

The first potential antibody has been discovered.

https://www.erasmusmagazine.nl/en/2020/03/14/unique-discovery-in-erasmus-mc-antibody-against-corona/?noredirect=en_US


Shoulders?-Stomach!

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Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2020, 09:51:03 AM »
Mate Dev says you can shag it out, he's cummin on walls out of respect.

Pass this on 2 loved ones

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2020, 10:11:28 AM »
egg, egg, egg,

Dex Sawash

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Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2020, 10:43:55 AM »

Does badmin get his cut if we order corona through your link?

hamfist

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Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2020, 10:52:01 AM »
This went well

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2020, 10:59:28 AM »
Can't say I don't hope that every person on this forum dies of not being able to breathe while I'm away there guzzling antibodies like so much yuzu caviar.

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2020, 11:10:41 AM »
Lie down and it all goes away

pancreas

  • The islets of Langerhans are the very best islets

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2020, 01:07:31 PM »
Good stuff, panc.

Interesting exploration/analysis of the UK gov approach here for Twitter people:

https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518371651649538?s=09

It does acknowledge that it's based on a number of assumptions and requires a precise balance of who to allow/encourage to transmit and who to isolate, but it also explains the remark yesterday that the government will be able to force some schools to stay open and some to close, which sounded absurd to me. There does seem to be some feasibility to this strategy having read around it, although it remains a gamble because of the assumptions and the variables which are very hard to control (isolation of the over-70s) and fundamentally whether immunity will occur.

However, to go back to what Zetetic said elsewhere, without immunity or vaccine in China and elsewhere, what does the future really involve for them? What is their longer term plan? I suspect their plan will be an impossible and unsustainable one for any other country on Earth. It will involve rigorous testing, tracking and enforced quarantine and basically detention centres. It'll be very effective and if there are any notable flare-ups, they'll just turn off lights again. Laborious but effective. We don't have the manpower.

Ours is a gamble then but actually, I do get it, and it seems to be the most difficult, complex approach with the most sustainable outcome. What are Italy going to do given the continued and increasing strain? It will slow at some point but what next?

If we systematically isolate and then introduce different groups to this in as controlled a manner as possible, that's arguably the best way to use our very limited resources and capacity.

They're apparently publishing their reasoning imminently but I don't have any confidence in that. I am slightly hopeful of this approach, though.

pancreas

  • The islets of Langerhans are the very best islets
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2020, 01:22:32 PM »
That thread is good but in the replies someone points out the obvious oversight: the numbers going in and out of hospital remain the same?? Apparently there are 4000 critical care beds in the UK. This would be like trying to fill a thimble with the water pump from a fire engine.

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2020, 01:41:19 PM »
True, but I hear they're clearing out psych wards and the like. I wouldn't be surprised if nursing homes were asked to consolidate to create more beds. It would be fucking hard to lose say 10% capacity in the care sector but if it gave 2% additional capacity in critical care, pulling numbers out of thin air, I understand the reasoning. It'll be about creating the maximum possible capacity and it will involve restructuring and making sacrifices elsewhere. In practice, hard fucking work but there is a reasoning and justification there.

Likewise, it might mitigate some of the economic impact on an individual level, people who work in retail, small businesses, etc. We won't necessarily go full lockdown at the same time - I mean, that is in line with the messages so far. And again, I understand that. A lot of businesses won't survive lockdown even if the employees do.

Zetetic

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Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2020, 02:31:08 PM »
I'm not sure that resources are really fungible like that. You can marginally increase critical care capacity by taking over operating theatres and so on (because you need actual built environment capacity as well as 24 hour 1:1 relevant nursing), not by shuffling care home beds.

The point of social care here is presumably about trying to get the reasonably medically fit out of hospital - which we struggle to do at the best of times. And we still need non-critical care beds as well.

That thread is good but in the replies someone points out the obvious oversight: the numbers going in and out of hospital remain the same??
I guess the idea is that you cocoon those most likely to require hospitalisation and critical care in particular, and so you avoid such a sharp peak in demand for those - instead we have a tolerable peak from the wider population, and later a slower, longer demand from the most vulnerable (more in line with seasonal flu).

That seems extremely difficult. We struggle to contain fairly straightforward bugs in our hospitals and care homes, and these are places that you find an awful lot of the most at risk.

And you're still going to see a huge trough in health and social care capacity, as they go ill with "mild" symptoms, particularly if you're trying to keep anyone who might have it away from the most risky.

« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 02:49:32 PM by Zetetic »

Zetetic

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Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #12 on: March 14, 2020, 02:37:20 PM »
The other thing is - Does anyone have a clear view on how immunity to COVID-19 actually works? Loads of stuff we don't develop long-term immunity too and loads of other stuff changes too quickly for it to even be possible to develop one-off vaccines even if we do (at least I think those are two separate things).

In the meantime, a "herd immunity" plan seems to risk turning a country into a great big incubator, doesn't it?

We don't know if this is going to be the problem for everyone for quite a while:
Quote
What is their longer term plan? I suspect their plan will be an impossible and unsustainable one for any other country on Earth. It will involve rigorous testing, tracking and enforced quarantine and basically detention centres.

pancreas

  • The islets of Langerhans are the very best islets
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2020, 02:38:22 PM »
Mmm. Seems like a valiant devil-advocacy defence of Johnson-Cummings but the idea that shit is going to be under control, given who's in charge of it, is rather far-fetched.

pancreas

  • The islets of Langerhans are the very best islets
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #14 on: March 14, 2020, 02:39:03 PM »
The other thing is - Does anyone have a clear view on how immunity to COVID-19 actually works? Loads of stuff we don't develop long-term immunity too and loads of other stuff changes too quickly for it to even be possible to develop one-off vaccines even if we do (at least I think those are two separate things).

We don't know if this is going to be the problem for everyone for quite a while:

Yes, if you read the lrb link above, it seems that it isn't in a position to mutate endlessly.

Zetetic

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Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #15 on: March 14, 2020, 02:45:28 PM »
Ah - well, that's one thing then. Doesn't solve the other side of our long-term immunity-formation, though, as far as I understand things. (As Beale, says, if a vaccine is possible?)

BlodwynPig

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Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #16 on: March 14, 2020, 02:47:10 PM »
Yes, if you read the lrb link above, it seems that it isn't in a position to mutate endlessly.

Hopefully it’ll be the dinosaur virus, too big to last

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2020, 03:08:33 PM »
I guess the idea is that you cocoon those most likely to require hospitalisation and critical care in particular, and so you avoid such a sharp peak in demand for those - instead we have a tolerable peak from the wider population, and later a slower, longer demand from the most vulnerable (more in line with seasonal flu).

That seems extremely difficult. We struggle to contain fairly straightforward bugs in our hospitals and care homes, and these are places that you find an awful lot of the most at risk.

Thanks for replying. When I say the increased care capacity, I know it's not going to be an extension of current facilities as much as a 'better than nothing' additional resource, even for quarantine purposes as China has done with a lot of hotels, but yeah, I understand what you're saying.

In terms of the broader ambitions of the approach, it is extremely difficult to keep bugs out of care homes but for the foreseeable future, we would need to build in extra layers of monitoring and testing and adapt working practices before staff even entered the buildings. It won't work 100% but as another measure to help isolate as much as is possible, it at least makes sense. I genuinely believe that would be doable, from my perspective. Harder would be to make sure that otherwise able-bodied senior citizens respected the social isolation measures.

In terms of the herd immunity, week no idea, have we? That said, if we don't develop some natural immunity to this or an effective vaccine, the entire operation around the world is largely academic. The species will be extinct within a hundred years.

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Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2020, 03:23:32 PM »
My local Tesco has loads of bog roll in stock.


Hahahahaha, only joking

chveik

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Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #19 on: March 14, 2020, 03:28:52 PM »
In terms of the herd immunity, week no idea, have we? That said, if we don't develop some natural immunity to this or an effective vaccine, the entire operation around the world is largely academic. The species will be extinct within a hundred years.

bit early for this kind of prediction I reckon

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #20 on: March 14, 2020, 03:34:49 PM »
OK, apologies for that kind of language and speculation. Not in the spirit of this thread.

To make the point a different way, while a lot of this thread is based on assumptions about the UK gov approach, I do think we basically have to operate now on the grounds that a certain degree of immunity will take place and deal with the alternative if it arises. We don't have the capacity for a parallel contingency plan. And regardless of whether immunity does or doesn't occur, we still need to focus on keeping the most vulnerable people safe and minimising the impact/#flattenthecurve to allow our infrastructure to cope as best as possible.

We're aiming for a slightly different outcome to the rest of Europe/the world and therefore our 'lockdown' will have different expectations and require a more nuanced strategy.

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #21 on: March 14, 2020, 03:44:52 PM »
'Herd immunity' is the UK government's strategy? What da fuck? Hundreds of thousands of elderly people are going to die you cretins!

Dewt

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Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #22 on: March 14, 2020, 03:47:06 PM »
Hey remember to play some computer games and shit, don't let this consume you. You're more likely to survive if you're not stressed.

Blue Jam

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Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #23 on: March 14, 2020, 03:48:43 PM »
Ori And The Will Of The Wisps is making my Xbone ill though.

pancreas

  • The islets of Langerhans are the very best islets
Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2020, 04:04:24 PM »
In terms of the herd immunity, week no idea, have we? That said, if we don't develop some natural immunity to this or an effective vaccine, the entire operation around the world is largely academic. The species will be extinct within a hundred years.

Yes, this is nuts on any level. Even if you had to have it every winter, you'd probably be fine until you got to 60. More people would die of this than cancer, which is probably preferable on many levels.

Blue Jam

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Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #25 on: March 14, 2020, 04:07:20 PM »
Yep, it's just measles parties on a larger scale, and still ignoring the fact that the disease in question is mild for most, but very serious for a small subset of unlucky fuckers.

Perhaps Glastonbury could still go ahead if it was just rebranded as a giant coronavirus herd immunity party. Natural treatment, maaaaaaan, let's all get in the Healing Field and cough on each other.

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #26 on: March 14, 2020, 04:08:46 PM »
It's almost impossible to think that they won't be able to develop an effective vaccine for an RNA virus. It's just that could take a year or more, even longer to effectively scale.

chveik

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Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #27 on: March 14, 2020, 04:13:47 PM »
they seem fairly hopeful to have one in 18 months or so

Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #28 on: March 14, 2020, 04:17:58 PM »
Yes, this is nuts on any level. Even if you had to have it every winter, you'd probably be fine until you got to 60. More people would die of this than cancer, which is probably preferable on many levels.

Manifesto 60

chveik

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Re: Sourced Coronavirus Information & Links
« Reply #29 on: March 14, 2020, 04:19:54 PM »
'Herd immunity' is the UK government's strategy? What da fuck? Hundreds of thousands of elderly people are going to die you cretins!

blitz spirit!

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