How long is this all going to last?

[Small Man Big Horse]

I know no one knows the actual answer but informed speculation would be appreciated, as I've heard people suggest it'll be 3 - 4 months, but others feel it might be up to a year. Either way it's fucking horribly depressing, the idea that I won't see Mrs SMBH, or any of my friends or family, for a quarter or even a third of the year is one I'm really fucking struggling with right now.

[massive bereavement]

A 2nd wave towards the end of this year/start of 2021 must be a fair bet and then what happens when the next new variant appears? Governments will be under pressure not to take any chances and be seen to make the same mistakes. We could be looking at annual lockdowns for the next couple of years.

[Emma Raducanu]

Could we maybe look at making a year 450 days long to mitigate for that

[batwings]

Hope it's not a year. I can't stay in this wardrobe for a year.

[Alberon]

Yeah, first wave lasts into June here in the UK. Then it comes back with winter and the second wave (which I think will be worse) rolls into Spring. Based on admittedly no medical knowledge, I think China will get hit hard paradoxically because it was so good containing the first wave.

Then it returns every year and it depends on the vaccines if it kills more people on average than the other types of flu did before.

[SteveDave]

When can we start looting?

[Replies From View]

At least it is absolutely hilarious on all levels with no downsides whatsoever.  Can't say that about everything can you.

[Danger Man]

When can we start looting?

When the pubs are officially closed.

[thecuriousorange]

I'm licking doorknobs to make sure I have the antibodies to swat away Coronavirus 2: The Secret of the Ooze.

[Puce Moment]

Universities' decision to close down with the hope that a drink down the Winchester will sort out the issues come the start of the new term in September now seems rather optimistic.

I'm expecting to be distance teaching for a year or so, which suits me fine.

[steveh]

We don't know for sure yet that it will follow the flu pattern of decline in the summer months and a resurgence in the winter, we don't know if reinfection is possible and vaccines for coronaviruses are not as straightforward as others. However, even if it takes 12-18 months to get a vaccine, antivirals may help in the meantime:

Klausner named two specific antiviral agents that look promising, including remdesivir and actemra, the latter of which he called "essentially a synthetic antibody" that is "currently being used and recommended for use in China" to treat the new coronavirus. It has been jointly manufactured by Roche and Chugai Pharmaceutical for use as an anti-inflammatory drug for rheumatoid arthritis.

Meanwhile, remdesivir, which was created by Gilead Sciences, has been reported as the most promising possible treatment for the virus because it is a "broad spectrum" drug that has shown effectiveness against various viral targets in lab testing.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/four-ways-experts-say-coronavirus-nightmare-could-end?ref=home

[A Hat Like That]

Yeah, first wave lasts into June here in the UK. Then it comes back with winter and the second wave (which I think will be worse) rolls into Spring. Based on admittedly no medical knowledge, I think China will get hit hard paradoxically because it was so good containing the first wave.

Then it returns every year and it depends on the vaccines if it kills more people on average than the other types of flu did before.

Basically this.

With a warmer spring, if this behaves like most other coronaviruses, then it should start falling back, so I can see it plateauing/receding earlier than June is the weather is good.

But we're likely a second wave, as discussed.

At least some of the antivirals are showing promise. A vaccine will take longer.

[jobotic]

But what about the fact (?) that its now spreading quickly in South East Asia, where it's already hot?

[GMTV]

Remember this first waves wiping out most of the people who are most at risk. There's a possibility we may develop a partial immunity to a viable mutated virus and so the next wave could be quite mild in comparison.

Edit genetic partial immunity as a result of contracting this current virus, as opposed to vaccination development.

[thenoise]

Hope it's not a year. I can't stay in this wardrobe for a year.

Vivienne Westwood do home delivery now, darling.

[massive bereavement]

But what about the fact (?) that its now spreading quickly in South East Asia, where it's already hot?

And you've got MERS too, the Middle East corona variant, which has been a problem in that region since 2012, still no vaccine (though trials were being done recently from what I could gather). Nothing like as contagious though, it would seem. Whether or not that's because of the heat, I don't know, but the virus has not been killed off altogether by the hot temperatures, that's for sure.

[Blinder Data]

I reckon self-isolation and wider societal shutdown in the UK will last at least three months. We might get let out in July before it returns (with a vengeance?) in October.

I can see our lives being touched by the Coronavirus and its response until end of 2021 at least.

[Sheffield Wednesday]

This is the modelled projection if no vaccine or treatment arises. Smaller intermittent spikes, slightly lower in summer and slightly larger in winter.

Wuhan is at the second blue line, starting to open up again with an expectation that they will again suppress as incidence increases. People will learn how to social distance, practise better hygiene, should help moderate. Bit of work and school, keep things ticking as best we can til a vaccine appears.

[bgmnts]

Euros 2020 suspended for a year so at least a year.

Fuuuuck.

[Marner and Me]

Year and a. half atleast, everyone in the UK will catch it, just depends when.

[Ferris]

I reckon about 6 weeks (tops). Am I absurdly overly-optimistic?

I mean, just economically after the first wave everything will have to open up again and society will (wittingly or otherwise) just decide that a small number of people dying is the price of business.

[Ferris]

This is the modelled projection if no vaccine or treatment arises. Smaller intermittent spikes, slightly lower in summer and slightly larger in winter.

Wuhan is at the second blue line, starting to open up again with an expectation that they will again suppress as incidence increases. People will learn how to social distance, practise better hygiene, should help moderate. Bit of work and school, keep things ticking as best we can til a vaccine appears.

Where is that data from? I'd be interested to know how they extrapolate ICU cases in November 2020 as approx 10 ICU cases a week worse than May 2021.

[Zetetic]

It's the Imperial College paper discussed in the Sourced thread: https://www.cookdandbombd.co.uk/forums/index.php/topic,78635.msg4129762.html#msg4129762

There are many models (and many approaches to modelling). The Imperial paper isn't definitiv, even if it is influential.

You shouldn't take the precision in that chart as credible - it's illustrative.

The thing it's illustrating - a proposed approach for switching measures off in response to critical care demand - is extremely arguable.

[Ferris]

It's the Imperial College paper discusses in the Sourced thread.

There are many models (and many approaches to modelling). The Imperial paper isn't definitively, even if it is influential.

You shouldn't take the precision in that chart as credible - it's illustrative.

The thing it's illustrating - a proposed approach for switching measures off in response to critical care demand - is extremely arguable.

Noted, thanks!

[imitationleather]

Am I absurdly overly-optimistic?

Yes. This isn't one of my sarky jokes, either. Yes. Six weeks is being absurdly overly-optimistic.

It's even less absurdly overly-opitimistc than five weeks. Because five weeks is just stupid.

It's going to be at least three months.

[Zetetic]

It's also actually an extremely simple model in many, many ways. I'm too tired to be sure, but I think it has next to no expression of random variation at certain levels, and how that might screw up using critical care demand or occupancy as an early signal (given how tight the system is).

But, the wider point - that this will likely be lasting very publicly well into next year - doesn't depend on any of this.

[Zetetic]

a small number of people dying is the price of business.

Deaths in the UK moving from 550k (2017) to 800k isn't terribly unlikely. Even if it's 650k, a jump of 100k, that's not a small number.

(For bad context - the Blitz killed about 40k over 9 months.)

[gib]

I do wonder if young people will eventually work out they are completely immune* and just think fuck it. Some modern day version of raves. That and threatening to cough at older people if they don't hand over their valuables.


*terms and conditions apply

[Sin Agog]

Get Corona Done!

[Ferris]

Crikey. Well that's the end of my optimism.

What... what happens now, then? Do we... stay like this for 6+ months? Surely not