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March 28, 2024, 09:51:19 PM

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How long is this all going to last?

Started by Small Man Big Horse, March 16, 2020, 09:23:51 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Uncle TechTip

Quote from: Zetetic on March 18, 2020, 12:19:48 AM
It's the Imperial College paper discussed in the Sourced thread: https://www.cookdandbombd.co.uk/forums/index.php/topic,78635.msg4129762.html#msg4129762

There are many models (and many approaches to modelling). The Imperial paper isn't definitiv, even if it is influential.

You shouldn't take the precision in that chart as credible - it's illustrative.

The thing it's illustrating - a proposed approach for switching measures off in response to critical care demand - is extremely arguable.

I saw this graph discussed on Sky News and from what i gather, it shows the modelling based on a dialing up and down of social distancing measures as the need arises (ICU capacity). Four weeks on, two weeks off. The blue line is max measures. If that understanding is right, for one thing it would mean only sporadic spectator sport for two years.

idunnosomename

Quote from: Sin Agog on March 18, 2020, 12:38:58 AM
Get Corona Done!
just get it done!!!

*drives forklift through polystyrene boxes*

solved.

Ferris

Quote from: Uncle TechTip on March 18, 2020, 01:24:02 AM
I saw this graph discussed on Sky News and from what i gather, it shows the modelling based on a dialing up and down of social distancing measures as the need arises (ICU capacity). Four weeks on, two weeks off. The blue line is max measures. If that understanding is right, for one thing it would mean only sporadic spectator sport for two years.

Yeah, I wasn't clear in what I was replying to. I meant 6 weeks for "all this" to blow over. The isolations and travel bans and emergency budgets because of all the businesses folding etc. I still reckon that's about right, though it might not be as long as that.

I think COVID-19 itself will be with us much longer than that, as Zetetic (correctly, in my opinion) points out with the seasonal "waves" model.

jamiefairlie

Quote from: FerriswheelBueller on March 18, 2020, 01:28:48 AM
Yeah, I wasn't clear in what I was replying to. I meant 6 weeks for "all this" to blow over. The isolations and travel bans and emergency budgets because of all the businesses folding etc. I still reckon that's about right, though it might not be as long as that.

I think COVID-19 itself will be with us much longer than that, as Zetetic (correctly, in my opinion) points out with the seasonal "waves" model.

I think it's going to be longer than that. The growth curve has to peak and then be on the way down before restrictions are eased and even then there's the danger of another spike if you do that too early. I doubt we'll even have peaked in 6 weeks.

Zetetic

To be a bit clearer - I think the idea that we can switch measures on and off in response to critical care demand or occupancy is fanciful, and there are shortcomings in the modelling - as best I can tell - that mean it exaggerates how credible an option it is. (I don't think it accounts properly for variation in the rate of change of demand, btih COVID-19 and other ICU demand, for example, and I think there are problems with treating the UK's capacity as one big bucket, given challenges of transferring people who need critical care.)

Setting that aide, I think this will be having a massive direct impact on public life well into next year at least, however exactly we try to manage the disease and our response to it.

olliebean

Quote from: Uncle TechTip on March 18, 2020, 01:24:02 AM
I saw this graph discussed on Sky News and from what i gather, it shows the modelling based on a dialing up and down of social distancing measures as the need arises (ICU capacity). Four weeks on, two weeks off. The blue line is max measures. If that understanding is right, for one thing it would mean only sporadic spectator sport for two years.

So there is an upside, then.

Egyptian Feast

Quote from: gib on March 18, 2020, 12:31:36 AM
I do wonder if young people will eventually work out they are completely immune* and just think fuck it. Some modern day version of raves. That and threatening to cough at older people if they don't hand over their valuables.

According to my sister in Dublin, teens have been hanging around outside Dunne's Stores up the road from her coughing when anyone walks past, especially old people. I admit it, I laughed.

Pseudopath

Christ, are Dunnes still going? That's reassuring at least.

Chedney Honks

Hiya.

Same question as the OP then.

I really thought the vaccines would choke this and we'd be basically sound by Autumn but it seems more uncertain now.

Inane observation, but I think we need to improve vax take up among young adults and get kids sorted, as well, if we're to move past this. I like the vax passports that France and a few others have put in place to restrict attendance to pubs and cinemas etc without the vax. People don't have to have it but they will have to 'learn to live with Covid' without being able to go to Nando's or ten pin bowling or whatever.

Or, do we wait for better/upgraded vaccines?

Couple of months ago I felt that I was safe from Covid albeit I continue to wear masks and distance to protect others. Now, I feel a little more fatalistic about my own chances.

imitationleather

I have the horrible feeling that if we do get on top of this then the next society-shaking crisis will only just be around the corner. This is basically going to be life now. Non-stop upheaval.

Fortunately for me I didn't have any long-term plans anyway. But if I did I'd be scrapping them now and just living in the moment. Which I had been doing. Which is a boon!

GoblinAhFuckScary

Quote from: imitationleather on July 23, 2021, 09:41:09 AM
I have the horrible feeling that if we do get on top of this then the next society-shaking crisis will only just be around the corner. This is basically going to be life now. Non-stop upheaval.

Bleak but i sympathise with this

dead soon

The Mollusk

The completely fuckin fed up and hungover part of me thinks the vaccine passports are the best way to go, especially after having an argument with my uncle this week who is a fucking care worker and is refusing to have the vaccine because it's "a government ID card under any other name" and then quoted Crass "no authority but yourself" to me. Fucks sake. But then equally, is he sort of right about that? On one hand it's objectively a good idea and mandatory vaccines to travel to certain countries have been a thing for a long ass time now, but I can understand the distrust in our particular government. They certainly are the type to slide in levels of control incrementally like that.

metaltax

Quote from: imitationleather on July 23, 2021, 09:41:09 AM
This is basically going to be life now. Non-stop upheaval.

This is maybe a contender for a new thread but I wonder how much of this is now generally true, and how much of it is down to society having changed, availability of information (and misinformation), more freedom to make personal (bad) choices etc.? In 1918 the majority of people didn't have great access to information, didn't have effective platforms to spew their own crazy opinions, and didn't have a lot of choice in how their lives played out. If the government told them to get a vaccine because there was a pandemic, then for the most part they did as they were told. Have we created a society that, on the face of it is more "free", but the price for that is that we can now no longer cope with situations which require a single response from a mass of people?

Chedney Honks

Re: The Mollusk

He is right to have that concern, but there were plenty of decent folk on here in March 2020 saying that we shouldn't lock down because it was another step towards totalitarianism and control.

It's important to be very wary of this government, and with very good reason, but if you see everything through that one lense you're blind to the bigger picture.


SpiderChrist

Quote from: The Mollusk on July 23, 2021, 09:54:33 AM
The completely fuckin fed up and hungover part of me thinks the vaccine passports are the best way to go, especially after having an argument with my uncle this week who is a fucking care worker and is refusing to have the vaccine because it's "a government ID card under any other name" and then quoted Crass "no authority but yourself" to me. Fucks sake. But then equally, is he sort of right about that? On one hand it's objectively a good idea and mandatory vaccines to travel to certain countries have been a thing for a long ass time now, but I can understand the distrust in our particular government. They certainly are the type to slide in levels of control incrementally like that.

Anyone who quotes Crass in that context is a buffoon. Crass, for all their faults, did not promote selfish individualism (which is what a lot of the anti-vaxxers are doing).

Quote from: Chedney Honks on July 23, 2021, 10:04:59 AM

Re: The Mollusk
He is right to have that concern, but there were plenty of decent folk on here in March 2020 saying that we shouldn't lock down because it was another step towards totalitarianism and control.

It's important to be very wary of this government, and with very good reason, but if you see everything through that one lense you're blind to the bigger picture.

In a nutshell.

steveh

Quote from: Chedney Honks on July 23, 2021, 09:31:46 AM
Or, do we wait for better/upgraded vaccines?

The vaccines being used are really good. There might be tweaked versions at some point that add a few percentage points for effectiveness with newer variants but there really is no problem currently with any of them.

The primary issue is the spread in the unvaccinated population with a knock-on effect of predominantly mild illness and a smaller onward infection in some of those that have been vaccinated. The country needs to get secondary school kids vaccinated as they've been a big spreader and reach the communities where vaccination rates are low. Unfortunately now the country is reported to have pretty-much exhausted all its Pfizer and Moderna stocks and won't get more till the autumn.

MoreauVasz

It does seem like lockdown is the only thing that actually works when it comes to keeping numbers down.

What might happen is a shift towards the social engineering based responses that have worked in South East Asia. So not just having track and trace but using track and trace to determine who gets to go to populated places. Been pinged in the last week? No shopping centre for you matey.

checkoutgirl

Quote from: metaltax on July 23, 2021, 09:57:08 AMIn 1918 the majority of people didn't have great access to information

There were protests against restrictions even then.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

Page 1 of this thread is interesting to read back.

My prediction is I haven't got a fucking clue. Isolation rules may need to be relaxed to keep society functioning, yet conversely they need to be imposed to limit infection and keep the NHS functioning.

No-one knows what the ceiling on this wave will be or what will happen when that's reached, or whether a new variant will begin to take over, or what the booster plan is, or what the Winter 2021/22 plan is.

It's fucked, exhausted by it yet ever more critical to be paying attention to it.

Shoulders?-Stomach!


MojoJojo

Yeah. An early advocate of inoculations, Cotton Mather, had a bomb thrown through his window with a note attached to it  "Cotton Mather, you dog, dam you: I'll inoculate you with this; with a Pox to you.'' in 1721. *

For a more recent example of people not acting great in a pandemic situation, 200,000 attended the Philadelphia Liberty Loans Parade during the Spanish Flu, leading to an estimated 12000 deaths.

(*The same Cotton Mather involved in the Salem Witch trials. It has to be said that back in the 18th century, the opponents of inoculation had a much stronger case.)

Blinder Data

Quote from: FerriswheelBueller on March 18, 2020, 12:08:08 AM
I reckon about 6 weeks (tops). Am I absurdly overly-optimistic?

I mean, just economically after the first wave everything will have to open up again and society will (wittingly or otherwise) just decide that a small number of people dying is the price of business.

Haha Ferris you mug!!!

Quote from: Blinder Data on March 17, 2020, 11:32:15 AM
I reckon self-isolation and wider societal shutdown in the UK will last at least three months. We might get let out in July before it returns (with a vengeance?) in October.

I can see our lives being touched by the Coronavirus and its response until end of 2021 at least.

I was right! YAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSS

Now that it's established I have perfect foresight, I expect this to be pretty much wrapped up by Summer 2023 (in the UK at least). Vaccine boosters and restrictions on indoor gatherings during the colder months until then.

Thomas

Exciting new bacterial pandemic in three months.

Chollis

Quote from: FerriswheelBueller on March 18, 2020, 12:08:08 AM
I reckon about 6 weeks (tops). Am I absurdly overly-optimistic?

I mean, just economically after the first wave everything will have to open up again and society will (wittingly or otherwise) just decide that a small number of people dying is the price of business.

CHECK OUT THIS DUNCE

Ferris

Quote from: FerriswheelBueller on March 18, 2020, 12:08:08 AM
I reckon about 6 weeks (tops). Am I absurdly overly-optimistic?

I mean, just economically after the first wave everything will have to open up again and society will (wittingly or otherwise) just decide that a small number of people dying is the price of business.

lmao

Dr Rock

Until the living envy the dead. And then a bit longer.

BlodwynPig

Quote from: Chedney Honks on July 23, 2021, 09:31:46 AM
Hiya.

Same question as the OP then.

I really thought the vaccines would choke this and we'd be basically sound by Autumn but it seems more uncertain now.

Inane observation, but I think we need to improve vax take up among young adults and get kids sorted, as well, if we're to move past this. I like the vax passports that France and a few others have put in place to restrict attendance to pubs and cinemas etc without the vax. People don't have to have it but they will have to 'learn to live with Covid' without being able to go to Nando's or ten pin bowling or whatever.

Or, do we wait for better/upgraded vaccines?

Couple of months ago I felt that I was safe from Covid albeit I continue to wear masks and distance to protect others. Now, I feel a little more fatalistic about my own chances.

I thought you were kidding back then. Fucking hell. Naive!

monkfromhavana

I suppose that, with only a small proportion of the world's population being vaccinated, it's going to go on for quite some time in one form or another. Especially if it mutates and renders the original vaccine useless.

BlodwynPig


BlodwynPig

Quote from: monkfromhavana on July 23, 2021, 02:05:33 PM
I suppose that, with only a small proportion of the world's population being vaccinated, it's going to go on for quite some time in one form or another. Especially if it mutates and renders the original vaccine useless.

Preddo, climate change disaster wipe us out before pandemic done