Has Covid-19 been with us for longer than we currently think?

[Old Thrashbarg]

Before November I knew of one person who had pneumonia. My very elderly great-uncle (just turned 95) had it around seven years ago. Between November and January, four people I know, from different social circles, came down with pneumonia. Well, in each case it was described as being 'probably' pneumonia due to the symptoms and tests showing 'signs' of pneumonia.

In November, my three year old daughter developed a bad cough, fever and difficulty breathing. Tests weren't conclusive, but there were signs of pneumonia. She was prescribed antibiotics which she refused to take due to the taste of the first couple of doses, so we found an alternative (my partner is an Advanced Practitioner in A&E, so knew that the alternative she got was equivalent to the original - not sure why the Consultant who prescribed the original would've gone with that if there was something nicer-tasting for a three year old that would also do the job), and she was better after a week.

During that week, my partner also came down with the same symptoms. She had it much worse and was essentially bed-bound apart from the times she forced herself to get up to do some uni coursework. Walking anywhere was a struggle due to shortness of breath and the constant dry cough lead to a complete inability to talk for a few days. Tests similarly weren't conclusive, but pneumonia was also suspected. After two weeks she was active again, but still feeling very run-down, and it was only after a couple of months that she felt back to normal.

So both cases could quite feasibly be pneumonia, though as it in itself isn't contagious it would mean they likely contracted the same virus to trigger it. Why I didn't get it I'm not sure, given that I spend longer in the presence of both than they do each other, given our working patterns. Though I do tend to avoid any sort of illness apart from the occasional cold. But with how closely the symptoms match Covid-19 (accepting that they're basically the same as pneumonia symptoms) and it affecting our young daughter much less significantly despite her being in a much higher risk category for pneumonia, I have wondered if it maybe wasn't what it appeared at the time.

Working against that is that it didn't spread to my 60+ year old parents, despite them looking after our daughter for a couple of days during the period just before and while she was symptomatic, and that the timeline doesn't quite fit with the first cases being traced in China. With my partner working in a large hospital A&E and our daughter going to an NHS nursery, with each child there having at least one parent who works in some capacity in the NHS, we're definitely at a higher risk of contracting Covid-19, but it would've had to have been someone flying over from Wuhan within days of being infected whilst being asymptomatic and then visiting a hospital to pass it on to either my partner or someone at the nursery. Assuming the source is what is currently suspected.

The other two people I know who have had suspected pneumonia in the last few months I've got no case details for, so no point speculating there.

It's likely all just coincidence, but something I've thought about over the last few days, and seeing a couple of other reports of recent pneumonia cases on here got me wondering further.

[bgmnts]

Well i've had a bad cough for over a year or so now so quite possibly?

Would anything else cause a cough when you laugh or speak loudly? Covid, tellin you.

I'm patient zero.

[BlodwynPig]

[Uncle TechTip]

There's a fellow at work who was in hospital end of last year with pneumonia, got very close apparently, no-one could establish the cause of his symptoms. Better now but he's wisely not been in the office since the very first advice to wfh.

[QDRPHNC]

Fucking hell Blodwyn, don't tell me you've become one of those the-face-on-mars-sneezed-coronavirus-on-to-neil-armstrong-when-he-was-on-the-moon-and-the-government-took-it-and-kept-it-but-now-it's-been-intentionally-released-as-a-bioweapon-to-derail-the-upcoming-elections wankers.

[RicoMNKN]

The thought did go through my mind due to a couple of similar experiences in my family, but I came to the conclusion that it can't be true since the data would still have a spike in deaths, even if wrongly attributed.

[Old Thrashbarg]

Very true, given the rate this is spreading it's impossible that it would've been undetected in the population for any significant length of time.

[MojoJojo]

Genetic analysis has concluded that it is highly likely that the common ancestor emerged in November or December 2019.

[massive bereavement]

Very true, given the rate this is spreading it's impossible that it would've been undetected in the population for any significant length of time.

I guess it depends on whether or not they were satisfied with "Corona" as an explanation or wanted to be more specific. Corona has apparently been part of the mix in flu-like symptoms leading to pneumonia for as long as they've been bothered to make the tests, which is relatively recently according to a German scientist I was watching the other day whose theory is that the Chinese lab that found it have a vested interest in finding something 'new' and that's what has resulted in the mass panic. He isn't satisfied that it's actually anything particularly out of the ordinary death rate wise and questioned how the figures are being reached and the quality of the testing.

Could well be that the world hasn't got time to argue over that sort of thing and that it isn't helpful sowing the seeds of doubt in people's minds that this isn't something we've never seen the likes of before. I dunno, I just know that I'm feeling very paranoid about this cough I've had since Sunday, not persistent by any stretch of the imagination, once every hour or so but it's got worse today and my chest feels a bit weird. I had walking pneumonia 12 years ago and it took me about 5 months to recover fully.

[El Unicornio, mang]

I had a really bad cough/general awful feeling for about a month after New Year. Have never been ill that long. I found it strange as I had just had the flu a couple of weeks earlier. Wondering now if it might have been C-19.

[Dewt]

My sort-of girlfriend was really sick about a month ago and I got it a tiny little bit too. It would be fucking aces if that was 'rona, but I doubt it.

[steveh]

First confirmed case was November 17 but "Of the first nine cases to be reported in November – four men and five women – none has been confirmed as being 'patient zero' ... It is possible that there were reported cases dating back even earlier than those seen by the Post."

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

[massive bereavement]

First confirmed case was November 17 but "Of the first nine cases to be reported in November – four men and five women – none has been confirmed as being 'patient zero' ... It is possible that there were reported cases dating back even earlier than those seen by the Post."

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

Closer to the timing of the Military Games held there in October.

[Alberon]

There is an opinion among some admin staff at the university I work at that the spate of illnesses in January and February might have been the Coronavirus. We have a lot of Chinese students and maybe one brought the disease back with them when China was the epicentre of the outbreak.

I'm not convinced though.

[massive bereavement]

How do they decide when to give viruses that are constantly changing a new name or suffix? Is it based on the difference in numerical values related to its structural composition, would one single change (say one that caused it to jump from one subspecies to another) warrant a new title, or is it to do with a change in behaviour prompted by the environment (infection rates).

In other words, is there a strict guideline for declaring a virus to be a new variant or do they just come up with a new one for the latest outbreak of what is basically something that's been dormant for a while?

[olliebean]

Has it been around longer than the experts say who know far more about it that some random people who got a bit ill more than a couple of months ago? No, probably not.

[massive bereavement]

I'm wondering how factually inaccurate or misleading it would have been to describe the virus as a return of Sars, rather than "Covid-19" or to have declared it as cases of MERS popping up in the far east. Just how different is it?

[steveh]

In genetic terms, Chan et al. have proven that the genome of the new HCoV, isolated from a cluster-patient with atypical pneumonia after visiting Wuhan, had 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-like-CoVZXC21 and 82% with that of human SARS-CoV[4]. For this reason, the new virus was called SARS-CoV-2. Its single-stranded RNA genome contains 29891 nucleotides, encoding for 9860 amino acids. Although its origins are not entirely understood, these genomic analyses suggest that SARS-CoV-2 probably evolved from a strain found in bats. The potential amplifying mammalian host, intermediate between bats and humans, is, however, not known. Since the mutation in the original strain could have directly triggered virulence towards humans, it is not certain that this intermediary exists.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/

So that 82% difference with human SARS is sufficient for it to be classed separately. The whole paper is a really interesting read.

Also:

According to recent research, a spike mutation, which probably occurred in late November 2019, triggered jumping to humans. In particular, Angeletti et al. compared the Sars-Cov-2 gene sequence with that of Sars-CoV. They analyzed the transmembrane helical segments in the ORF1ab encoded 2 (nsp2) and nsp3 and found that position 723 presents a serine instead of a glycine residue, while the position 1010 is occupied by proline instead of isoleucine.[9] The matter of viral mutations is key for explaining potential disease relapses.

Though now perhaps is more likely that happened in late October / early November.

[massive bereavement]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/

So that 82% difference with human SARS is sufficient for it to be classed separately. The whole paper is a really interesting read.

Also:
Though now perhaps is more likely that happened in late October / early November.

Thanks, just read the first bit and it says "Initially, the new virus was called 2019-nCoV. Subsequently, the task of experts of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) termed it the SARS-CoV-2 virus as it is very similar to the one that caused the SARS outbreak (SARS-CoVs)."
I read the 82% as 82% 'similar', rather than 82% "difference".

If they'd stuck with "SARS" as opposed to "Covid-19" I imagine there'd be a little less panic, which wouldn't necessarily be a good thing, maybe we do need to be alarmed.

Perhaps there is some comfort to be taken in the detail that they first identified variants as long ago as the 1960s, so it's not a new phenomena, but on the other hand 50 odd years is a long time to have not come up with an effective vaccine.

[steveh]

I read the 82% as 82% 'similar', rather than 82% "difference".

Yes, I wrote the opposite from what I meant...

Perhaps there is some comfort to be taken in the detail that they first identified variants as long ago as the 1960s, so it's not a new phenomena, but on the other hand 50 odd years is a long time to have not come up with an effective vaccine.

Though I assume each new variant needs a specific vaccine and if there isn't an immediate threat then getting someone to fund the research is going to be a problem.

[Ferris]

I think I've mentioned it on here, but my son was hospitalized with a virus about a month or so ago. Ambulance, seizures, a retrospective bill for the ambulance, the whole thing.

We were all super ill, as were my parents who were in town at the time. It'd be lovely if that was us done but I suspect life isn't that fair.

[JesusAndYourBush]

It wouildn't have been corona because the symptoms don't fit, but I had something weird for the last few days of December/first week of January.  Kindof a cold/fluey thing but I didn't feel too bad (apart from one evening I could barely stay awake) - the main symptom was my sense of taste was totally screwed.  Anything fruit/vegetable-based tasted really bland, anything meat-based tasted really greasy.  That nice bread with seeds in etc tasted like sawdust.  Sense of smell (which is linked with taste, obvs) was affected too - the smell after making a piece of toast was really nasty.  After about 10 days of that and then finally smelling some food and it smelled like it was supposed to was amazing.

Dunno what the fuck that was but I've never had anything like it before.

[Dex Sawash]

I had a really bad cough/general awful feeling for about a month after New Year. Have never been ill that long. I found it strange as I had just had the flu a couple of weeks earlier. Wondering now if it might have been C-19.

You're back! Fix your avatar

[JesusAndYourBush]

Now this is interesting...

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-experts-say-new-symptoms-could-be-loss-taste-or-smell-11961439

The British Association of Otorhinolaryngology (ENT UK) say asymptomatic patients - ones who do not have a fever or a cough - could show a loss of smell or taste as symptoms after contracting coronavirus.

It's saying loss of taste or smell.  With the thing I had it wasn't a complete loss, I could still taste *something* but my taste & smell was really messed up. (See post 2 posts back, no point me quoting it it's right there), and like that article says - I didn't have a fever or a cough.  Hmm, I wonder if I had Corona?

[Dex Sawash]

My coworker's wife lost smell/taste after a flu 2 years ago.
She's lost a ton of weight and is really into doing a rimming now.

[shiftwork2]

I saw the thread title and thought biggy had been sent back in to lock CaB down.  'Interesting coincidence', 'here's an interesting comment under a blog...'.

[Hand Solo]

My Mum came down with something a few weeks after Christmas which restricted her breathing, a particularly bad case of pneumonia of some kind I think they said. She was in hospital for a few days with a ventilator and I visited her and she was demanding to go home but they wanted to run more tests which she didn't want to do because she thought they were trying to kill her.

She eventually went a bit unresponsive overnight and my sisters decided on her behalf she should get a particular scan the staff wanted and they wheeled her bed off, right after the scan the staff said they put her back into bed and her heart immediately went, I wasn't there but my sisters who were in the next room had agreed on no-resuscitation so by the time I go to the hospital she was gone, then they wheeled her back into her room still warm and that was that and this was on the Feb 5. Now my Dad's devasted and still coming to terms with being alone for the first time in 50 years and at 78 absolutely bricking it over the news panic, but still going out to the shops etc 'just to get out of the house'.

[BlodwynPig]

I saw the thread title and thought biggy had been sent back in to lock CaB down.  'Interesting coincidence', 'here's an interesting comment under a blog...'.

"When the stars were right, They could plunge from world to world through the sky; but when the stars were wrong, They could not live."
― H.P. Lovecraft, The Call of Covid-19

[Non Stop Dancer]

I had a virus at the end of Jan. Persistent cough which I still have the very last remnants of, and a fever which led to me being admitted to hospital overnight with delerium. Never had anything like it in all my 41 years. I'm assuming they would have tested for it in hospital at that point (or would they?) but can't find my discharge notes. Wife works at Uni with loads of Chinese students. I don't actually think it was that but it's certainly been suggested to me by enough people to warrant posting in this thread.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

My coworker's wife lost smell/taste after a flu 2 years ago.
She's lost a ton of weight and is really into doing a rimming now.

I laughed