Sweden watch!

[Kryton]

Sweden are going with the No lockdown, Herd immunity strategy.

I thought a thread focusing on this strategy might give us some insight on how it works (or doesn't). Guess we'll see in a few days.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102203/cumulative-coronavirus-cases-in-sweden/

It's not that Sweden is in denial. It has had 5,466 confirmed cases, 282 deaths. Coronavirus has been found in a third of Stockholm's (many) elderly care homes. But the debate there is still where the British debate was three weeks ago when the Prime Minister was resisting lockdown. This changed for Britain when Imperial College London published its study suggesting that avoiding lockdown could mean 250,000 deaths. This logic applies to Sweden – but the country of the Nobel Prize and the Karolinska Institute believes its own experts. They disagree with Imperial. They still see Covid-19 as a manageable risk.

The face of Sweden's response has been Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist, who has held daily press conferences. Politicians have taken a back seat. His team have published their own assessment of the virus and its likely trajectory, showing it peaking with about 250 needing intensive care in Stockholm. The nation's hospitals, he says, can cope. A 600-bed temporary ward is opening tomorrow, south of the city – and when it does, a quarter of all intensive care beds will be used. So for now, no reason to impose any more restrictions.

The article is behind a paywall here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/swedes-rest-world-engaging-reckless-experiment/

But i've quoted relevant points.

He urges caution, and Swedes are responding. Sixth formers and university students are learning from home. Sports fixtures continue, but with spectators more spaced out. Online meet-ups are replacing real ones, elbow-bumping (remember that?) replaced handshakes long ago. A naturally cautious country is taking Tegnell's advice. But crucially, he isn't asking Swedes to trust him. Hospital data is published all the time, so Sweden's "experiment" is being conducted in the open. Every time a patient is admitted, the data is updated on a Covid live website in striking detail. Average age: 60. Those with diabetes: 26 per cent. With cardiovascular or lung disease: 24 per cent. With at least one other underlying health condition: 77 per cent. Sweden is also updating its statistics to say if someone died from Covid, or of something else – but with Covid. This might reduce the "death" figure by two thirds.

If Tegnell's analysis proves wrong, the public will be able to see it unravel on his dashboard. In which case, he says, he stands ready to tighten things up. Sweden's famous love of transparency – you can look up your neighbour's salary online if you feel the urge – is being used as a tool to foster trust. So far, it's working: polls show that three quarters of Swedes support the strategy. The debate, overall, is very different from Britain's. There is no shortage of epidemiologists in the Swedish press, backing Tegnell and denouncing the "desk-based theory" of the Imperial College study.

The Swedish prime minister is asked if he has ceded power to Tegnell: he doesn't seem offended. Time will tell if we made the right choice, he says. Over here, this would be seen as dangerous, even heartless. Doesn't he want to save lives? But Swedes are also looking at Britain's surging unemployment, one in five small firms on the verge of going bust, children deprived of education, working mothers edged out of their job. That also hits lives.

And this case is being made, in Sweden, in a way it might not be over here. Kerstin Hessius, who runs a government pension fund, has been arguing that money vs lives is a false choice. Rising unemployment hits pensions directly," she says. "What's more, the tax base disappears – then we have to start cutting welfare." And Swedes should be proud that "we have not extinguished the entire society, as many other countries have done".

The risk is pretty obvious. Tegnell might soon find out that the virus spreads far faster than he thought – and by then it would be too late. Sweden's hospitals would be overrun. A letter signed by 2,000 luminaries appeared in the papers this week saying it was time for Sweden to fall in line with the rest of the world. Åre, where I had hoped to be skiing next week, will shut its lifts the week leading up to Easter. Posters had started appearing in train stations, put up by locals, telling visitors they were endangering lives by refusing to stay home.

Sweden is not immune from what is, now, a fierce global recession. Unemployment has spiked and bailouts have started – albeit ones that will be easier to pay off than Britain's. Swedes tend to have more of a sense of the economy as the engine of the welfare state: damage one, and you damage the other. You also damage public health, society, education and democracy. As one former politician told me, Sweden is not resisting lockdown in spite of being a strong social democratic state. It's doing it because it's a strong social democratic state.

For now, Stockholm is perhaps the last capital in Europe where there are signs of normal life – with shoppers, skateboarders, pensioners and commuters (albeit in far fewer numbers). They know who to thank for their liberty. On Vasagatan, there's a poster taped to a wall saying "All power to Tegnell, state epidemiologist". Whether they'll be saying this at the end of the month is, of course, another question entirely.

Thoughts? If nothing else it will give us some data.

[Sony Walkman Prophecies]

Just been listening to the Cardigans. Swedish women are godly aren't they? I might go over there after all this calms down. Go visit the Abba Museum. Manhandle some Hasselblads, then pop over to Norway to pay homage to Knut Hamsun, the zaniest Skandi of them all.

[Wonderful Butternut]

As I understand it, Sweden, having a proper Social Welfare system and state services being a Pinko Commie-Socialist nightmare state that's one step away from turning into Venezuela or opening Stalinist gulags (just watch, I promise! We have it right, not them) has a health system that shits all over the UK's and Ireland's, and a less batshit housing market where there are significantly less 30 year olds living with their parents.

Therefore, with less people coming home from work and coughing COVID all over their 60-70 year old parents who then go down and give it to all the other old bastards in the Bingo hall, and a health service that might be better able to deal with loads of ICU cases before totally shitting itself, they have a better chance of pulling this off than BoJo or Varadker ever did.

That's not to say they will. I don't know. They just have a better chance.

[ZoyzaSorris]

I was thinking that this writing sounds more than a bit right wing and lo and behold it is Fraser Nelson, who is more than a bit right wing.

[Kryton]

I was thinking that this writing sounds more than a bit right wing and lo and behold it is Fraser Nelson, who is more than a bit right wing.

Sorry, I just linked it as an example rather than any defined opinion, more so just a filler for anyone wanting to know more. Feel free to provide better examples.
More of a discussion point than any statement, you get me?

[BlodwynPig]

Ooops...allah!

[bgmnts]

I apparently have a tiny bit of Swedish ancestry on my biological father's side way down the line so I suppose I am going to start taking this very seriously I suppose.

[BlodwynPig]

I apparently have a tiny bit of Swedish ancestry on my biological father's side way down the line so I suppose I am going to start taking this very seriously I suppose.

PROOF

[bgmnts]

Why am I fozzy bear?

[idunnosomename]

I was thinking that this writing sounds more than a bit right wing and lo and behold it is Fraser Nelson, who is more than a bit right wing.

he is a sensible fellow who just happens to hang out with unabashed fucking fascists

[Thomas]

he is a sensible fellow who just happens to hang out with unabashed fucking fascists

I skipped the the sentence you were quoting and thought you were describing Fozzy Bear.

[idunnosomename]

who is the most fascist muppet, though

[Thomas]

He believes all Muppets should be getting back to work immediately.

[idunnosomename]

i guess. i love sam though, since he is so absurd it's impossible for nationalists to appropriate him

[Mr_Simnock]

Just been listening to the Cardigans. Swedish women are godly aren't they? I might go over there after all this calms down. Go visit the Abba Museum. Manhandle some Hasselblads, then pop over to Norway to pay homage to Knut Hamsun, the zaniest Skandi of them all.

I went a few years ago to that, it was better than I thought it was going to be. The only odd thing about it was a sign stating something like they don't accept cash as cards are a safer/more secure method of payment to which I chuckled. The Vasa museum is also top drawer too, Stockholm felt a bit like Manchester center, bit underwhelming.

[Sony Walkman Prophecies]

Stockholm felt a bit like Manchester center, bit underwhelming.

I have heard that. Maybe I'll give it a miss. The women though...

[Emma Raducanu]

The women in Manchester are mad for it

[Foggy Buntwhistle]

The current population of Sweden is 10,084,127 as of Saturday, April 4, 2020, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data.

The population density in Sweden is 25 per Km2


The current population of the United Kingdom is 67,800,485 as of Saturday, April 4, 2020, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data.


The population density in the United Kingdom is 281 per Km2


Population of London alone is almost 8 million, probably more.


As well as the other contributing factors, a functioning healthcare system, more people living alone, more people able to work from home etc etc. I wouldn't be massively surprised if their outcomes were no worse than most other northern European countries.

There are so many differing factors on a country by country basis it seems almost impossible to make much sense of the data atm. Of course they could be making a terrible mistake and get absolutely fucked.


Also Sweden is lovely but yeah, also found Stockholm a bit dull. Plus the price of a beer in a bar is outrageous.

[BlodwynPig]

Why am I fozzy bear?

You remind me of the big cuddly foz bear (I've seen the photos)

[thenoise]

Swedish women are all about 10 foot tall and built like rugby players. The men are even bigger. They'll be fine I reckon. Deaths have probably all been tourists/foreigners.

[big al]

There are so many differing factors on a country by country basis it seems almost impossible to make much sense of the data atm. Of course they could be making a terrible mistake and get absolutely fucked.

I wish some of the blokes on Reddit would factor this in. I'm sick of reading posts where they have calculated the potential UK deaths based on the Chinese or Italian figures and disregard that countries demographics and situations differ.

[Poirots BigGarlickyCorpse]

As I understand it, Sweden, having a proper Social Welfare system and state services being a Pinko Commie-Socialist nightmare state that's one step away from turning into Venezuela or opening Stalinist gulags (just watch, I promise! We have it right, not them) has a health system that shits all over the UK's and Ireland's, and a less batshit housing market where there are significantly less 30 year olds living with their parents.

Therefore, with less people coming home from work and coughing COVID all over their 60-70 year old parents who then go down and give it to all the other old bastards in the Bingo hall, and a health service that might be better able to deal with loads of ICU cases before totally shitting itself, they have a better chance of pulling this off than BoJo or Varadker ever did.

That's not to say they will. I don't know. They just have a better chance.

I was gonna remark on Sweden's population density but Foggy Buntwhistle beat me to it.

[Inspector Norse]

Sweden are going with the... Herd immunity strategy.

No they are not. Anders Tegnell has repeatedly said this isn't the aim. He has specifically said that too little is known about the virus for any such strategy to be taken. There is unfortunately some serious misreporting going on in the international press (which is really fucking irresponsible when you think about it, because there should be a focus on finding the right strategies rather than misrepresenting the alternatives), who are seeing that Sweden isn't in lockdown and making assumptions.

What they are going with is acknowledging that the virus is here, advising caution and taking small steps at a time, in an attempt to limit the spread, avoid overwhelming the healthcare system, avoid having too much impact on daily life and the economy, ensure that plans are in place for coping with possible closures of schools and workplaces, give hospitals and related industries time to get hold of more essential supplies and create more space and train more staff, and avoid a situation where the country emerges from three or four weeks of lockdown only for coronapocalypse to strike again and people to start getting seriously angry and uncooperative.

The changes we're noticing on the ground are that a lot of people are working from home, that public transport is nearly empty, that restaurants and cafes are taking steps to limit custom and behaviour, that schools and daycare may be open but are only half-full as anybody with cold symptoms stays home.

I don't know if this approach will work. I was very sceptical in the beginning as other countries started panicking and shutting down, but I've been won over to an extent by the fact that the government and opposition parties have agreed to leave their differences aside and present a united front in order to allow scientists and experts to call the shots, rather than populism leading them to disastrous mistakes (hi Boris). Swedes do not, though, like being told what to do and so there are still a lot of people refusing to give a shit: over-70s who refuse to stay home and avoid shops, people making plans to go to their summer houses despite being advised not do, people going in to work with a sniffle, and so on. I think one key step is for the government to start saying CAN'T insteaed of SHOULDN'T.

Tegnell has acknowledged that at some point, probably in the near future, the spread curve will start climbing and that's when more serious action will be called for. I think so far he's been pretty impressive keeping it together in the face of increasing scrutiny and hysteria, and he's been very open about the fact that any path they choose is going to be a big risk. It's started to look over the last couple of days like further steps are needed to support healthcare and, with the schools and daycare having closed yesterday for Easter break, everyone is now wondering whether they'll open again afterwards: this week might be perfect to put arrangements in place for distance learning and childcare for those with necessary jobs. My girlfriend's job is connected to the hospitals and there's just a constant stream of stuff happening and things being done.

[Inspector Norse]

Also Sweden is lovely but yeah, also found Stockholm a bit dull. Plus the price of a beer in a bar is outrageous.

Price of a beer is high but wages are like five times what you get elsewhere so it evens out in the end. Expensive for visitors though.

I wouldn't call Stockholm dull but you do need to know where to go, certainly the areas around the central station are boring chainstore drabs and, speaking as someone living in the suburbs, there is not a lot of interest in the architecture or nightlife once you get off the main islands. But anywhere near a metro station on Södermalm is lively 24/7, Vasastan has a lot of charm and if you want to go bankrupt fast then hit Östermalm on a Friday or Saturday night.

[Foggy Buntwhistle]

Expensive for visitors though.

This was the problem I think.

I wouldn't call Stockholm dull but you do need to know where to go,

Dull is maybe a bit harsh, I still had fun there. Just coming from London it seemed a little clean and nice. Not always a bad thing.

But yeah in terms of the governments response it's interesting at least. Just to see how things pan out. As I mentioned in the post up thread I think that the demographics and general cultural differences are such that at this point it's almost pointless trying to extrapolate stuff or compare different countries. We are all very much in the middle of this shit and it's not gonna be possible to really analyse numbers or make sense of them for quite a while I think.

Appreciate the detailed post from the Swedish frontline though mate!

[Dex Sawash]

Was thinking Kryton had fucked it right up not going with 'Swiss Watch" but then I thought a bit more.

[BlodwynPig]

Price of a beer is high but wages are like five times what you get elsewhere so it evens out in the end. Expensive for visitors though.

I wouldn't call Stockholm dull but you do need to know where to go, certainly the areas around the central station are boring chainstore drabs and, speaking as someone living in the suburbs, there is not a lot of interest in the architecture or nightlife once you get off the main islands. But anywhere near a metro station on Södermalm is lively 24/7, Vasastan has a lot of charm and if you want to go bankrupt fast then hit Östermalm on a Friday or Saturday night.

Norse, have you heard this album?

https://www.discogs.com/The-Persuader-Stockholm/release/24200

A nice soundtrack to your City in those halcyon days.

[Inspector Norse]

Norse, have you heard this album?

https://www.discogs.com/The-Persuader-Stockholm/release/24200

A nice soundtrack to your City in those halcyon days.

Never heard it but looks intriguing. The tracklist is a bit geographicallt scattershot though, leaps all over the place. I wonder if you plotted the journey out on a map if you'd get a secret message or something.
That label put out the Björn Torske[nb]a man whose name literally translates as Bear Cod[/nb] records which were really good.

[BlodwynPig]

Yeh, The Persuader is Jesper Dahlback (Wasp Bacon Rump in English), one of the early pioneers of Scandinavian Deep House

[Sin Agog]

When I was in Göteborg years back, I heard this shit joke twice, maybe even three times:

"Help, somebody's been run over!  Somebody call the government so they can call an ambulance."

The premise of their domineering, busybody government seems kinda faulty when you compare it to their coronareaction.