CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III

[George Oscar Bluth II]

The best salesman in the world won't be able to deal with a self-imposed no deal Brexit. In five years time he'll be a busted flush. Even if he isn't I can't see him winning the red wall seats again.

There was polling the other week showing Labour ahead in most of those seats: https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-poll-reveals-labour-leads-in-red-wall-constituencies

One thing that wasn't really talked about last year was how much of the Tory offer was "vote for us this one time and we'll sort Brexit and that nasty Mr Corbyn will go away". Remove both of those factors, add in no deal, covid and the fact that these places are getting fuck all from the Tories and why are you voting Tory exactly?

[Cuellar]

Why would you vote Labour though. The Tories at least Got Brexit Done, you've got to give them credit for that. What have Labour done recently? Nothing. They're just racists.

[Menu]

There was polling the other week showing Labour ahead in most of those seats: https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-poll-reveals-labour-leads-in-red-wall-constituencies

One thing that wasn't really talked about last year was how much of the Tory offer was "vote for us this one time and we'll sort Brexit and that nasty Mr Corbyn will go away". Remove both of those factors, add in no deal, covid and the fact that these places are getting fuck all from the Tories and why are you voting Tory exactly?

Exactly. This reminds me of the mid 90s when it was just a waiting game before Labour took power again.

[George Oscar Bluth II]

Why would you vote Labour though. The Tories at least Got Brexit Done, you've got to give them credit for that. What have Labour done recently? Nothing. They're just racists.

Because they're not the Tories, the same reason Labour always poll between 30 and 45% of the vote.

And no-one ever gets credit for the things they've done in the past. What relevance will having got Brexit done have in 2024, a full eight years after the vote? What are you going to do for me now? And the answer isn't obvious.

Anyway this isn't me saying this, it's an actual poll of actual voters. Ask them. If you'd asked me to guess how a poll of the red wall would go I'd have thought it'd be quite pro-Tory still but clearly not.

Exactly. This reminds me of the mid 90s when it was just a waiting game before Labour took power again.

If no deal is bad, it could be Black Wednesday again. Keef and the boys pushing at an open door.

[Norton Canes]

The Tories at least Got Brexit Done, you've got to give them credit for that

They haven't even remotely 'Got Brexit Done', as the ongoing shambles demonstrates.

[Cuellar]

Yeah but they will have, when the next election comes round. Hell, it'll be done in a few weeks time. Doesn't matter that we'll spend the next 10 years negotiating terms with the EU and other countries, that's irrelevant. Brexit will be DONE. Under a list of EU countries, the UK will not appear. DONE.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Because they're not the Tories, the same reason Labour always poll between 30 and 45% of the vote.

And no-one ever gets credit for the things they've done in the past. What relevance will having got Brexit done have in 2024, a full eight years after the vote? What are you going to do for me now? And the answer isn't obvious.

Anyway this isn't me saying this, it's an actual poll of actual voters. Ask them. If you'd asked me to guess how a poll of the red wall would go I'd have thought it'd be quite pro-Tory still but clearly not.

If no deal is bad, it could be Black Wednesday again. Keef and the boys pushing at an open door.

Brexit is only the start of years of rolling back human rights and hard-fought rights. Will we still have sick pay or tribunals by the time of the 2024 election? Half the country get off on things getting worse for other people and will happily vote for the Tories when they run on a manifesto that would turn the clock back to 1830. Black Wednesday couldn't be blamed on other people, whereas the Tories will manage to blame the economic and social fallout caused by No Deal on everyone but themselves.

[Dr Rock]

Blodwyn will save us.

[BlodwynPig]

Blodwyn will save us.

I can now reveal that tonight we sent over a slide pack to the Cabinet Office, which will be part of Boris' briefing pack on Monday morning. I was told "this is the first time he'll have seen the word wastewater in his daily briefing, so keep it simple"...to which I didn't reply "but he's seen plenty of shit in there, surely".

[Menu]

Love how Blodwyn's on the inside.

Playing the long game though.  Or was he really one of them all along?

Alec Guinness as Blodwyn Pig in "Was He Really One Of Them All Along?"

[jobotic]

I can now reveal that tonight we sent over a slide pack to the Cabinet Office, which will be part of Boris' briefing pack on Monday morning. I was told "this is the first time he'll have seen the word wastewater in his daily briefing, so keep it simple"...to which I didn't reply "but he's seen plenty of shit in there, surely".

Didn't he accidentally say that Covid could be transmitted through the water in a summer briefing? No wonder they're nervous.

You should get the Navy to patrol the wastewater.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Sad to see Germany losing their grip on it.

They had gone from June 12th - October 12th with a rolling average daily deaths under 15 per day (though mainly around 6 or 7). Visited Bavaria in July and went from Berlin across central Germany to Dusseldorf in September. They did pretty well considering restrictions were fairly eased. I went swimming, went out to bars, went to a football match in Cologne (masked and more tightly marshalled), went on the pedalos at Munich's Olympic park. Took the U-bahn and S-bahn around and about. People overall were acting sensibly, ducking out of crowd situations in city centres and on transport, not going ott in bars and so on. The messaging over there is extremely consistent and simple and just hammered home remorselessly.

At that point the restrictions evidently were working and a degree of normality was achieved, so no point laying guilt trips on the population for what's happening now

I suppose once schools started up, along with the other freedoms, the tipping point and reinfection rate just goes off the charts...likewise some of the protected people from the first lockdown have made it to winter, whereas the UK took the time out to ensure a lot of them died.

If going back to school was non-negotiable they should have tightened up elsewhere. Outright foolishness.

[idunnosomename]

this is an incredible collection of hack misinformation if nothing else

https://twitter.com/TheIDSmiths/status/1338259489754148866

[Chedney Honks]

Shoulders, are you confessing to being the first global hyperspreader? If Schneider Weisse shut down off the back of this, I will be fuming mate.

[BlodwynPig]

Sad to see Germany losing their grip on it.

They had gone from June 12th - October 12th with a rolling average daily deaths under 15 per day (though mainly around 6 or 7). Visited Bavaria in July and went from Berlin across central Germany to Dusseldorf in September. They did pretty well considering restrictions were fairly eased. I went swimming, went out to bars, went to a football match in Cologne (masked and more tightly marshalled), went on the pedalos at Munich's Olympic park. Took the U-bahn and S-bahn around and about. People overall were acting sensibly, ducking out of crowd situations in city centres and on transport, not going ott in bars and so on. The messaging over there is extremely consistent and simple and just hammered home remorselessly.

At that point the restrictions evidently were working and a degree of normality was achieved, so no point laying guilt trips on the population for what's happening now

I suppose once schools started up, along with the other freedoms, the tipping point and reinfection rate just goes off the charts...likewise some of the protected people from the first lockdown have made it to winter, whereas the UK took the time out to ensure a lot of them died.

If going back to school was non-negotiable they should have tightened up elsewhere. Outright foolishness.

Plague bearer Shoulders. I knew it! I knew it!

[BlodwynPig]

Shoulders, are you confessing to being the first global hyperspreader? If Schneider Weisse shut down off the back of this, I will be fuming mate.

He lied to me when I asked him (he was hinting at being in Munchen and denied it).

[Dr Rock]

I suppose once schools started up, along with the other freedoms, the tipping point and reinfection rate just goes off the charts..

Sadly it's a scientific fact that if children are kept away from school for more than 8 weeks their heads explode.

[Uncle TechTip]

Their parents' heads explode, you mean.

[Fambo Number Mive]

10% of tests for Covid-19 are coming back positive in London.

[Cuellar]

Not surprised - the way my London friends seem to be carrying on (rip). Pubs all the time, photos on insta of groups of 6, sitting on each others' laps, going to Cornwall. They all work from home, just stay inside for christ's sake it literally couldn't be easier.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Malden-Cheam area, Waltham Forest and parts of East London looking particularly bad, according to the interactive coronavirus map.

[jobotic]

Still nowhere near as bad as where I live in Kent, and no one's been to a pub in a long time. It's still going up.

[Bernice]

10% of tests for Covid-19 are coming back positive in London.

Is that a lot?

[George Oscar Bluth II]

Really bad yeah.

[bgmnts]

Is that a lot?

Almost a million people isn't it? A lot of them going to be possibly spreading all over the country to see family during the Great British superspreader event.

[olliebean]

Almost a million people isn't it? A lot of them going to be possibly spreading all over the country to see family during the Great British superspreader event.

Not unless every single Londoner has been tested, which seems unlikely. The people being tested will be mostly people who have reason to believe they might have it (because they have symptoms, or are front line workers or whatever), so the proportion of tests coming back positive will be significatly higher than the prevalence in the general population.

According to https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases:

In the most recent week of complete data, 03 December 2020 - 09 December 2020, 21,684 cases were identified in London, a rate of 242 cases per 100,000 population. This compares with 15,442 cases and a rate of 172 for the previous week.

The actual number of infected people will obviously be higher, but still very much short of a million.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/telegraph-columnist-says-she-doesnt-know-anyone-who-has-had-covid-except-her-whole-family/15/12/

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

He lied to me when I asked him (he was hinting at being in Munchen and denied it).

Well, I wasn't there at the time (or close to the time) of the conversation. This isn't a big reveal, I already posted this on here quite some time ago.

Following the return from my hyperspreader tour the German death rate fell then stayed at around 7 deaths a day for 4 months.

[BlodwynPig]

Well, I wasn't there at the time (or close to the time) of the conversation. This isn't a big reveal, I already posted this on here quite some time ago.

Following the return from my hyperspreader tour the German death rate fell then stayed at around 7 deaths a day for 4 months.

It's just jealousy. Rabid jealousy. You fucking bastard of gothic Europe.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Long COVID will be debated in the House of Commons on the 7th January.