Author Topic: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III  (Read 137537 times)

BlodwynPig

  • The Last Living Member of COVID-20
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2190 on: January 11, 2021, 08:14:27 PM »
To repost a question from another thread:

How far in advance of the positive test figures are the wastewater incidence figures? I'm working on the assumption that it takes an average of 5 or so days after infection for a positive test to be recorded. So how quickly after infection does it show up in your piss/shite, then how quickly does it become traceable in the collective wastewater, and finally, how quickly does that then make it's way into your figures?

Inherent biases in the testing strategy (REACT data seems best, but is sparse and can suffer in other ways), mean that wastewater 'may' lead T&T data. However, early Dutch work showed that when these biases are accounted for, there should be very little lead or lag. Remember that wastewater is an aggregate across a population serving the sample point or treatment works, so there will be variation in space and time due to shedding rates and distribution of this shedding in the population. Once you get to large numbers, the correlation is pretty stark. We update the PHE dashboard with wastewater data now I believe, so should be near to real time (that is 3-5 days lag from sample date, dependent on Dover queues).

BlodwynPig

  • The Last Living Member of COVID-20
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2191 on: January 11, 2021, 08:15:43 PM »
My local beach made it to the front page of The Daily Mail as an example of people flouting the rules, although again they've used perspective to make it look a lot worse than it is. From another angle you'd see it's actually pretty empty with space between groups



Tynemouth?

Zetetic

  • I wasn't supposed to be around this long, so…
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2192 on: January 11, 2021, 08:51:46 PM »
We update the PHE dashboard with wastewater data now
Do you mean an internal one?

(We're still getting nothing of use for directing testing.)

Chedney Honks

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2193 on: January 11, 2021, 09:08:58 PM »
Will we ever get 2k deaths per day?

Gonna put £500 on.

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2194 on: January 11, 2021, 09:35:17 PM »
Inherent biases in the testing strategy (REACT data seems best, but is sparse and can suffer in other ways), mean that wastewater 'may' lead T&T data. However, early Dutch work showed that when these biases are accounted for, there should be very little lead or lag. Remember that wastewater is an aggregate across a population serving the sample point or treatment works, so there will be variation in space and time due to shedding rates and distribution of this shedding in the population. Once you get to large numbers, the correlation is pretty stark. We update the PHE dashboard with wastewater data now I believe, so should be near to real time (that is 3-5 days lag from sample date, dependent on Dover queues).

Thanks.

So from that data you can presumably get a reasonably accurate picture of how many infected people are actually testing positive, which should then give a reasonable estimate of the rate of asymptomatic infection (maybe? Maybe I'm underestimating how many asymptomatic cases are picked up by testing). Not that that probably matters hugely at this point, but it was interesting earlier on to see very high estimates of asymptomatic infection, potentially leading to herd immunity being achieved earlier than we would otherwise expect. Would be intriguing to know how accurate those predictions were. At this point it seems like they were way off the mark.

Chedney Honks

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2195 on: January 11, 2021, 09:57:38 PM »
Shedding means shitting.

BlodwynPig

  • The Last Living Member of COVID-20
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2196 on: January 11, 2021, 10:02:06 PM »
Do you mean an internal one?

(We're still getting nothing of use for directing testing.)

Should be public. I’ll find out status

BlodwynPig

  • The Last Living Member of COVID-20
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2197 on: January 11, 2021, 10:02:54 PM »
Shedding means shitting.

No. Unless you are referring to your rancid plague gazebo

Chedney Honks

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2198 on: January 11, 2021, 10:05:40 PM »
I started using Washies specifically so you'd stop calling it that :(

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2199 on: January 12, 2021, 12:38:36 PM »
Tynemouth?

Yeah. Might go for a walk there today since it's actually sunny and I haven't left the house in about a month.

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2200 on: January 12, 2021, 03:03:01 PM »
Yeah. Might go for a walk there today since it's actually sunny and I haven't left the house in about a month.

Blood on your hands and feet!

Alberon

  • His heart is an empty fridge
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2201 on: January 12, 2021, 06:09:48 PM »
Another day with a four digit death toll, but it looks like the number of new infections is starting to drop. Of course, even if that is true the number of hospitalisations will continue to rise for now and so will deaths.

Fambo Number Mive

  • Golden Member
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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2202 on: January 13, 2021, 04:08:30 PM »
47,525 reported cases, 1,564 reported deaths within 28 days of a positive test.


Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2203 on: January 13, 2021, 04:19:51 PM »
LOADS MORE DEAD POOR PEOPLE TORY SPUNK DREAM 2021 SURVIVAL OF THE RICHEST FUCK YOU COUNCIL HOUSE CUNT

Alberon

  • His heart is an empty fridge
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2204 on: January 13, 2021, 04:20:20 PM »
Reported cases are down nearly 15,000 on last week, but hospitilisations are up nearly 6,000 to 36,489.

Over 100,000 people have now died in the UK with Covid listed on the death certificate (as opposed to the 28 day limit in the official toll).

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2205 on: January 13, 2021, 04:35:50 PM »
Reported cases are down nearly 15,000 on last week, but hospitilisations are up nearly 6,000 to 36,489.

Over 100,000 people have now died in the UK with Covid listed on the death certificate (as opposed to the 28 day limit in the official toll).

Fuck I was trying to work out how many deaths before the fall in cases results in a fall in death rates. With 1500 deaths a day it's not looking good.

Norton Canes

  • In today's room, with today's view
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2206 on: January 13, 2021, 05:18:48 PM »
Not long before deaths hit 83,000, which is a third of the way to the 250,000 predicted deaths that would happen before achieving herd immunity. Great progress!

And, we're there! Govt must be well chuffed

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2207 on: January 13, 2021, 07:51:32 PM »
So, this new Brazilian variant? Fuckdown or not?

shiftwork2

  • pies this is your time
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2208 on: January 13, 2021, 09:10:28 PM »
Shaved up the sides is it. Like Heathrow 27L on final is it?

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2209 on: January 14, 2021, 12:05:02 AM »
It's all going as planned lads, good work!

bgmnts

  • Depressed to the point of poisonous toxicity.
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2210 on: January 14, 2021, 12:35:02 AM »
Fucking hell that was such an insanely horrible sentence I actually laughed.


sirhenry

  • That worked out well...
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2211 on: January 14, 2021, 11:03:29 AM »
It's all going as planned lads, good work!

Another winning one-liner by that glorious double act - Malthus and Smith.

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2212 on: January 14, 2021, 11:11:24 AM »
Well at least Johnson can start writing those cheques to the NHS now, then? Now he's got his oven-ready Brexit Meal Deal all cooked up nice and tasty.

Oh wait that bus was just a big Brexiteer wet dream mirage wasn't it.

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2213 on: January 14, 2021, 04:07:50 PM »
Brazil variant coming lads. Looks like a good one.

Alberon

  • His heart is an empty fridge
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2214 on: January 14, 2021, 07:31:57 PM »
48,682 cases today so slightly up on yesterday, but the death toll has been delayed for some reason.

Sin Agog

  • Dogs fucked the pope; no fault of mine
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2215 on: January 14, 2021, 08:18:08 PM »
48,682 cases today so slightly up on yesterday, but the death toll has been delayed for some reason.

Maybe someone's finally tricked Death into climbing in a big sack and trapped him in there with a double granny knot?

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2216 on: January 14, 2021, 09:55:03 PM »
48,682 cases today so slightly up on yesterday, but the death toll has been delayed for some reason.

Where did you get cases from? Dashboard still has yesterday's figures.

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2217 on: January 14, 2021, 10:18:01 PM »
This is troubling: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-lungs-worse-smokers-lungs/

Quote
patients who've had COVID-19 symptoms show a severe chest X-ray every time, and those who were asymptomatic show a severe chest X-ray 70% to 80% of the time.

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2218 on: January 14, 2021, 10:29:03 PM »
Where did you get cases from? Dashboard still has yesterday's figures.

I saw this tweet earlier: https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1349772301533925376
 
Also just posted in the last few minutes, apparently the death figures are 1248 today: https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1349844628225273860

Alberon

  • His heart is an empty fridge
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #2219 on: January 14, 2021, 10:32:46 PM »
Where did you get cases from? Dashboard still has yesterday's figures.

I saw it on the BBC though a quick search shows it on several other newspaper sites as well.

PHE has apparently said the death toll for today is delayed by a ‘processing issue’.

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