CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III

[DrGreggles]

Beaver shortage in Spalding

[bgmnts]

Blodadamus here with his quatrains.

[Ferris]

It'll take more than individualism to get through this. Needs to be a rethink of power structures and the relationship between masters and serfs.

Schools closed. All non-essential services closed. No one allowed in or out of the city.

It begins.

[BlodwynPig]

What do you mean by that?

uptick in virus in the shit in these areas.

[BlodwynPig]

Schools closed. All non-essential services closed. No one allowed in or out of the city.

It begins.

Raccoon City?

[thelittlemango]

Raccoon City?

Another day on Blodwyn Island, the pink fat man whistles as he kicks a plastic pint glass down an alley.

[BlodwynPig]

Another day on Blodwyn Island, the pink fat man whistles as he kicks a plastic pint glass down an alley.

VOTE CERYS

[Old Thrashbarg]

uptick in virus in the shit in these areas.

Right, thanks.

So the data from those areas for positive tests will be interesting to watch over the next week or so. With the obvious proviso that a lot (the majority?) of people who take a test are those showing symptoms and you'd hope that vaccination would suppress, or at least reduce, symptoms for most.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Interesting that Van-Tam reckons we are 'at or close to' the bottom when it comes to the disease circulating.

England's deputy chief medical officer Prof Jonathan Van-Tam is explaining a series of data slides on the coronavirus situation in the UK.

The first slide is on the number of people testing positive for Covid-19 in the UK up to 28 April. Prof Van-Tam says the country is now seeing "very low levels" of the virus, which are comparable to where we were in September last year.

He adds that the UK is seeing a seven-day average of just over 2,000 people testing positive per day.

Van-Tam adds that the UK is probably "at or close to the bottom" in terms of the level of the disease circulating.

Haven't seen the briefing because urgh, but would be interested to know why this is his view. The 7 day rolling average got down to 600ish at the start of July 2020, whereas we are nearer 2000 now, but I suppose there were far fewer tests being done back then.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

I note from the map that the slightly higher cases in the M62 corridor area are falling as well, note some of the bordering regions are now lighter green versus when I shared this link a couple of weeks back. The 3 little clusters further south are only just over the threshold of 50, too.

[BlodwynPig]

Right, thanks.

So the data from those areas for positive tests will be interesting to watch over the next week or so. With the obvious proviso that a lot (the majority?) of people who take a test are those showing symptoms and you'd hope that vaccination would suppress, or at least reduce, symptoms for most.

Correct.

[Ferris]

Raccoon City?

Fucking feels like it. Went for a walk last night after putting the nipper to bed and every cunt had those half-face respirators, shuffling nervously from doorway to doorway, shooting glances my way under the streetlights.

I don't own any firearms now so it'd be just my luck if the fucking zombie apocalypse happens and for the first time since age 15 I'm not tooled up.

[MojoJojo]

I've been rubbing my Magic Cock and staring at the covid positive test rate and I think we're at the start of a gentle increase in cases. It seems about time with the restrictions being eased and the good weather. But hopefully very slow and with the vaccine hospitalisation rates will stay low.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

The projected R rate has increased from 0.8-1 to 0.8-1.1. Widening the margin suggests they aren't really sure.

The other day Van Tam said we had hit the bottom or near the bottom of cases going around the general population.

The BBC are also running reports on the low level of prevalance, so it does almost seem like we are being primed... For something.

We are a little way off completing the full first round of vaccinations, and other countries who are ahead with vaccines aren't very similar to the UK to do a fair comparison, so still a few unknowns on what will happen if several mutations of the virus are still able to be spread around easily.

[BlodwynPig]

Bastani and Walker have said its OVER, so its over lads. Get out your lentils and peronis comrades and join us in the socialist barns.

[Drygate]

I must confess I got a bit sucked into the whole casedemic thing last summer so please forgive my ignorance, but do the PCR really tests give out any false positives at all?

I know the covid skeptics were saying most cases were false positives and obviously they weren't.

But even if a tiny amount were, could that explain why there are still a few 1000 positive tests a day?

Or are they all 100 percent true positives?

[BlodwynPig]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/falsepositivityrateofthecovid19pcrtest


Contamination would be the majority route for false positives

[olliebean]

I must confess I got a bit sucked into the whole casedemic thing last summer so please forgive my ignorance, but do the PCR really tests give out any false positives at all?

I know the covid skeptics were saying most cases were false positives and obviously they weren't.

But even if a tiny amount were, could that explain why there are still a few 1000 positive tests a day?

Or are they all 100 percent true positives?

The false positive rate is supposedly slightly over 1%. Which would mean that if fewer than 1% of people being tested have Covid, there'll be more false positives than true positives.

[BlodwynPig]

Are you sure about that? TP should always be >>>> FP

[olliebean]

Are you sure about that? TP should always be >>>> FP

Quite sure. If 200 people get tested, and only one of them has Covid, then assuming the test picks that up, that will be one true positive. Meanwhile, if the false positive rate is 1%, there'll be two false positives. Although, I think my quickly googled 1% figure may have been wrong - a more authoritative source (the ONS) suggests it's 0.1% or lower. And since most people are only getting a PCR test if they have at least one of the main symptoms of Covid, it's unlikely that fewer than 1 in 1000 of them have it.

[beanheadmcginty]

Surely the false positive rate is a percentage of the positives rather than a percentage of the tests as a whole?

[BlodwynPig]

Surely the false positive rate is a percentage of the positives rather than a percentage of the tests as a whole?

Thats my assumption. FP are an indication of test specificity (inversely so). So its percentage of those who are negative rather than all tests

[Zetetic]

Surely the false positive rate is a percentage of the positives rather than a percentage of the tests as a whole?

False Positives ÷ (False Positives + True Positives) is usually referred to as the False Discovery Rate.
The denominator is all test positives.

False Positives ÷ (False Positives + True Negatives) is usually referred to as the False Positive Rate.
The denominator is all actual negatives. (I think this might be what Blodwyn is saying.)

The right answer is always present a confusion matrix.

[BlodwynPig]

yes, but I couldn't be bothered to post a confusion matrix as I was throwing out some rotten mediterranean vegetable mix.

[Zetetic]

(I guess part of the problem is still deciding what you think is an actual positive - are you happy to include people who are no longer infectious or symptomatic but did have it recently? - and what the 'gold standard' test for that would even be.)

[Chedney Honks]

Although eleven of my family members, friends and friends' family members have died, in addition to the 125k across the country, I've enjoyed a lot about this past year and this subforum has been a great source of camaraderie, support and laughter. Many thanks to steveh, Blodders and Zetetic for keeping us informed and befuddled throughout. There have been some brilliant times when we all rallied round, not least when Bozzer went vent tier, Cumdumpster got fucked and we learned that not even our shit is truly our own with Big Maths around. 😂😂😂

Thanks to all who pushed in the right direction and made untold sacrifices for the greater good while our democratic government tried to exploit the lives and deaths of normal people for personal financial gain. I wish them all a very merry VENT. This past year has changed me forever and, in some ways, made me grow up. I'm less frivolous but also much more thankful for the people I spend my time with one way or another. In that same spirit, thank you for your company, good humour and well-placed white hot hate.

We will surf the fourth wave together in paradise.

🌊🌊🌊.

[BlodwynPig]

Long may it last! Three cheers.

End Credits

*Bergerac theme tune*

[Drygate]

Thanks for the info about the FPs. So there not something to take into account.

[Wanking Monk of Kefalonia]

Just wanted to say, apologies to JamesTC for flying off the handle earlier (and anyone else on here that I've been abrasive towards). I know I get quite heated about this particular subject.

[SpiderChrist]

Just wanted to say, apologies to JamesTC for flying off the handle earlier (and anyone else on here that I've been abrasive towards). I know I get quite heated about this particular subject.

Is u hurtin' Bruv?

[Wanking Monk of Kefalonia]

Is u hurtin' Bruv?

Naive of me to expect anything other than a catty, passive aggressive response to posting anything sincere on CaB.