CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III

[hamfist]

Indian looks likely to push transmissibility back to March 2020 levels.

Nice - I'm definitely rooting for India here. Like watching Kabaddi on Ch4 in the 90's, watching Balwinder Singh just wipe his opponents out despite their best efforts.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

A few days in a row of small increases, now a really big increase in cases today. Eek. Looks like that R rate might have tipped >1

[BlodwynPig]

0.8 - 1.1 last week from what I saw

[Cuellar]

Close the pubs!

[Drygate]

But didn't Boris just literally say we're on course to remove all restrictions and leave it up to the individual's common sense?

[Cuellar]

Well everyone (doctors scientists etc) said that they expected to see a rise in cases when they open stuff up.

Us youthful cunts are just going to have to weather the infected hordes while we wait for a vaccine.

[DrGreggles]

But didn't Boris just literally say we're on course to remove all restrictions and leave it up to the individual's common sense?

[Old Thrashbarg]

A few days in a row of small increases, now a really big increase in cases today. Eek. Looks like that R rate might have tipped >1

Remember that it's always worth bearing in mind the amount of tests being conducted. The figure from 9/5 was the highest since 28/4. Nearly triple the amount conducted on 8/5 and nearly double the amount on 7/5.

Obviously more tests might have happened simply because more people are symptomatic due to more people being infected. But if that is the case, a few hundred positive results for 900,000 extra tests doesn't seem too bad an outcome.

[BlodwynPig]

Interesting, i had that question yesterday - thought symptomatics had gone down and testing too given the data i was looking at.

[Zetetic]

A bit of a tangent but has anyone seen a decent estimate of how many people are "symptomatic" for upper respiratory tract infections (e.g. cold, flu) at any given time, in the absence of COVID-19?

Complicated by also having to consider how different URTI viruses are influenced very differently by lockdown etc. One of the first work conversations I had about the 'ViD back in February 2020 involved a back-of-an-envelope guess at the number of people with a cold, based around the claim that adults have "2-3 [noticeable] colds per year", and I've seen work from colleagues about trying to guess how flu incidence might influence testing (but of course we mostly stopped flu in the 2020/21 season).

[Drygate]

I'm not sure what you're trying to say with that photo but just the sight of those flags gives me hope for the future.

[MrMrs]

what photo

[Zetetic]

[MrMrs]

get me tae fuck

[Ferris]

A bit of a tangent but has anyone seen a decent estimate of how many people are "symptomatic" for upper respiratory tract infections (e.g. cold, flu) at any given time, in the absence of COVID-19?

Complicated by also having to consider how different URTI viruses are influenced very differently by lockdown etc. One of the first work conversations I had about the 'ViD back in February 2020 involved a back-of-an-envelope guess at the number of people with a cold, based around the claim that adults have "2-3 [noticeable] colds per year", and I've seen work from colleagues about trying to guess how flu incidence might influence testing (but of course we mostly stopped flu in the 2020/21 season).

I read something about active flu cases in the US but cannot for the life of me remember where. The upshot was that the common flu has been essentially eradicated by quarantines and social distancing etc, I want to say ~1500 cases total or something? But that can't be right can it. Maybe ~1500 confirmed cases but basically no one is bothering to look for it at the moment? Or do you mean in non-covid years to compare the number of active flu cases with 0 restrictions against the number of covid cases?

Apologies for the worthless comment, I have been up since 5.12am getting pissed on by potty training toddler.

Oh look, it's the 8th circle of hell.

[BlodwynPig]

A bit of a tangent but has anyone seen a decent estimate of how many people are "symptomatic" for upper respiratory tract infections (e.g. cold, flu) at any given time, in the absence of COVID-19?

Complicated by also having to consider how different URTI viruses are influenced very differently by lockdown etc. One of the first work conversations I had about the 'ViD back in February 2020 involved a back-of-an-envelope guess at the number of people with a cold, based around the claim that adults have "2-3 [noticeable] colds per year", and I've seen work from colleagues about trying to guess how flu incidence might influence testing (but of course we mostly stopped flu in the 2020/21 season).

Very little going around. We'll be shifting to a noro and influenza strategy soon btw

[Zetetic]

That's interesting.

It thought it looked to us like rhinoviruses haven't been touched at all, based on respiratory panel testing. (Although these are less likely to produce cold-like symptoms in the spring/summer, maybe, in adults???)

Edit: Or maybe I'm being too generous to the rhinovirus in my memory:

[Zetetic]

I read something about active flu cases in the US but cannot for the life of me remember where. The upshot was that the common flu has been essentially eradicated by quarantines and social distancing etc, I want to say ~1500 cases total or something?But that can't be right can it. Maybe ~1500 confirmed cases but basically no one is bothering to look for it at the moment?

I think quite a few places run broad testing on a sample of both random people turning up to healthcare and people with respiratory symptoms - this is a pre-COVID thing.

Or do you mean in non-covid years to compare the number of active flu cases with 0 restrictions against the number of covid cases?

No, I'm interested in the current situation, where we've obliterated a wide variety of respiratory viruses while leaving others largely untouched (because their transmission is quite different).

(The context was originally a discussion about why our keyworker positivity rates are so low and whether there was any better explanation than "no one cares about the LFD-then-PCR-unless-symptomatic" policy. I was wondering how many people we expect to be symptomatic for non-COVID respiratory infections at the moment.)

Oh look, it's the 8th circle of hell.

Pretty much - it's

Spoiler alert

Serco-run Yarls Wood Immigration Removal Centre

[close]

.

[Ferris]

Fucking hell, seriously? Wow.

[Drygate]

For the staff or the inmates? Not sure which would be worse.

[olliebean]

For the staff or the inmates? Not sure which would be worse.

A party for the inmates, to mark the Queen's Diamond Jubilee in 2012. I don't know if they had any choice about whether to attend - I presume not.

See also:



(from https://neoliberaldoompatrol.wordpress.com/2015/01/03/a-virtual-tour-of-yarls-wood-immigration-removal-centre/)

[frajer]

[Zetetic]

Primary source for the Jubilee photos specifically:
https://web.archive.org/web/20131114075739/http://www.yarlswood.co.uk/gallery/category/queens-jubilee

[Drygate]

Jesus that's rough. Talk about reeducation camps! It reminds me of those Abu Ghraib photos from a few years back...

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Over 50% of Covid deaths now coming from just 3 countries. Quite populous ones though.

[Zetetic]

^^ If nothing else, it's an interesting companion to other depictions of celebrations of the Jubilee and the London Olympics ("the first and last time I could feel proud of being British" and all that).

[bgmnts]

Recruitment company recruiting for a BPM company that I think is doing customer service for Vaccine Passports. So they're coming soon definitely. Was that in the news?

[steveh]

This is worth a read on why you shouldn't get overly scared about the variants: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/05/13/1024850/dont-panic-coronavirus-variants/.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

I think the total uncertainty about the outcome of a successful hard to fight mutation is still providing low to mid level anxiety for me.

It can be summed up with 'If there isn't a deadly mutation we're probably gonna be alright in the end, but there might be, more so if infections run rampant, which they sort of are currently in India'. Not terrifically reassuring.

[Chedney Honks]

steveh, the only guy never on ignore in the Covid subforum. Respect.