Author Topic: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III  (Read 105086 times)

Shoulders?-Stomach!

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #30 on: April 14, 2020, 10:37:04 AM »
UK has the first N/A in the worldometer - Number of recovered N/A

N/A Cigs

Zetetic

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #31 on: April 14, 2020, 11:05:28 AM »
Excess deaths from ONS data:
https://twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1249986522692096003

(Not the best of all possible charts.)

pancreas

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #32 on: April 14, 2020, 02:27:07 PM »
It's pretty clear that their method of reporting is suppressing of the order of 50% of the real deaths due to Covid.

Zetetic

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #33 on: April 14, 2020, 02:33:17 PM »
Whose method of reporting? Junior doctors?

pancreas

  • The islets of Langerhans are the very best islets
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #34 on: April 14, 2020, 02:44:17 PM »
Whose method of reporting? Junior doctors?

Govt. We know they are not attributing covid to deaths in care homes. Presumably that's just part of a raft of under-reporting of covid deaths.

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #35 on: April 14, 2020, 02:58:27 PM »
UK has the first N/A in the worldometer - Number of recovered N/A

NONE SHALL RECOVER

I don't get this as, you know, some people have recovered. Dominic fucking Cummings is back at "work" for one.

Zetetic

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #36 on: April 14, 2020, 03:01:18 PM »
Since the reporting on death stats is so fucking terrible, here's my attempt to set down my understanding. Apologies in advance if bits of it are patronising as fuck to some people.

Hospitals record deaths of people who have recently[1] tested positive for COVID-19. These appear in the daily reported deaths figures, but there's often a lag of a few days. (See English figures by day-of-death here..)

The ONS publish weekly deaths based on death certificates - this shows you all deaths, deaths involving an underlying cause of a respiratory disease or condition[2] and now deaths with any mention of COVID-19[3]. "Any mention" here means pretty much you just have to write "COVID-19" somewhere on the death certificate - not that COVID-19 is what, fundamentally, killed this person. These deaths include deaths anywhere, not just in hospital.

Note that death certificates are frequently filled out by the least experienced and qualified medics available, and that they've often had very little contact with the deceased before they died. A lot of the fallout from Shipman was that death certification was a bit rubbish, and that we needed to setup a proper system for reviewing deaths (which we're finally doing after UK Government decided to pay for it).

A fair number of people who died from COVID-19 out of hospital will not have "COVID-19" written on their death certificate anywhere. In many cases, doctors might feel that they suspect COVID-19 was involved, but given that they don't have a positive test might not feel it's appropriate to write it on the certificate. They will probably have "pneumonia" on there somewhere. At the same time, a fair number of people whose deaths involve pneumonia, or COPD etc., won't have COVID-19.

Death registration also has a considerable lag, and this is possibly particularly bad at the moment because of discouraging travelling.

I don't think that not including care home deaths is a ruse by any of the four governments of the UK. I think it reflects that it's hard to get rapid and reliable reporting of community deaths, even in communal establishments. Focusing on hospitals and positive-tests at least gives a consistently biased picture of the situation with only a few days lag.[4]

Right now, relatively few people with COVID-19 on their death certificates are dying in care homes[5] - of course, some of that is biased testing (including perhaps because it's not useful to keep testing symptomatic residents in a care home that you know that there is an outbreak in[6]).

The ONS provide enough data that I think it's hard to cover up under-reporting at a national level; ultimately we can see total excess deaths with only about a fortnight's delay.
 1. 28 days, I think.
 2. They did this pre-COVID-19.
 3. Which can and probably often does overlap with a respiratory condition.
 4. Well, until we stop being able to admit people at all.
 5. See figure 6a
 6. And testing isn't actually that fun for the person being tested.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2020, 03:15:22 PM by Zetetic »

chveik

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #37 on: April 14, 2020, 03:05:54 PM »
deaths in care homes amount to a third of the total number of deaths in France. I dunno if it's because they've fucked really badly or if any country will have to expect that

Zetetic

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #38 on: April 14, 2020, 03:13:38 PM »
Alternatively, they're better at managing certain death than we are. Dying in your care home is preferable to dying in critical care.

Is France including those deaths in their daily reported numbers, chveik? (A source would be really helpful.)

pancreas

  • The islets of Langerhans are the very best islets
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #39 on: April 14, 2020, 03:14:56 PM »
Right now, relatively few people with COVID-19 on their death certificates are dying in care homes[1] - of course, some of that is testing (not least because it's not useful to keep testing symptomatic residents in a care home that you know that there is an outbreak in[2]).
 1. See figure 6a
 2. And testing isn't actually that fun for the person being tested.

That chart you didn't much like earlier is indicating that only approx 50% of deaths above 5 year average are down to Covid. I propose most of the remainder are. That suggests massive under-reporting. One potential source is deaths due to Covid in care homes. I don't know how many care homes are plagues with Covid, but if 1/3 of residents are dying from it (see below) then I could imagine that being of the order of 1000/day.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/are-people-dispensable-care-home-manager-tells-how-third-of-residents-have-died-from-covid-19

This isn't just the weather. Something could be done about it. It is convenient that the death certificates will not reflect infection with Covid, since it makes the govt look bad. Does that convenience add up to a ruse? Maybe.

Is death stats reporting better in other countries and if so how and why?

Zetetic

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #40 on: April 14, 2020, 03:23:39 PM »
Quote
One potential source is deaths due to Covid in care homes ... This isn't just the weather. Something could be done about it.
Yes, and I do think that's plausible.

For the sake of clarity: that's not so much the "only deaths in hospital" criteria for the daily reported deaths, though, but the issues with such limited testing, and death certification and what junior docs feel that they should write.

Quote
Is death stats reporting better in other countries and if so how and why?
An excellent question, that I've never got to the bottom of.

There are international standards on death certificates and how you fill them out (precisely so WHO etc. can do international comparisons), but a lot of it is still down to ... fads[1]. For example, the rise in 'dementia' as an underlying cause.
 1. Or more generously changing understanding and attention.

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #41 on: April 14, 2020, 03:24:36 PM »
I've asked some staff locally about the situation in care homes (albeit only three) and only one resident has died. It's anecdotal and I really think the figures are much higher than the govt wishes us to know, but I doubt it's going to 1/3 across the board. I'm probably wrong but I fucking hope not. Imagine living or working there.

chveik

  • vampires have it easy
Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #42 on: April 14, 2020, 03:33:44 PM »
Is France including those deaths in their daily reported numbers, chveik? (A source would be really helpful.)

yes they are, since april 2. genuinely struggling to find a decent source in english, but for example you can see it here in the report for yesterday's numbers

Quote
A total of 335 of the deaths occurred in hospitals, up from 315 the previous day, while 239 deaths were recorded in nursing homes

https://www.france24.com/en/20200413-covid-19-france-records-574-new-deaths-in-24-hours

Zetetic

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #43 on: April 14, 2020, 03:34:54 PM »
Thanks.

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #44 on: April 14, 2020, 03:40:14 PM »
I thought they hadn't done it daily, hence the large amounts of deaths reported on single days. Unless it's the way this site does it, which is possible.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

chveik

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #45 on: April 14, 2020, 03:53:07 PM »
I thought they hadn't done it daily, hence the large amounts of deaths reported on single days. Unless it's the way this site does it, which is possible.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

I think it takes them more time to collect those particular numbers. they hadn't included in the reports any deaths in nursing homes before april 2, which explains the massive spike.

chveik

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #46 on: April 14, 2020, 03:55:43 PM »
anyway it's fucking grim.

NoSleep

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #47 on: April 14, 2020, 04:00:58 PM »
The subway nonce?!?

Slumlord son-in-law of Trump.

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #48 on: April 14, 2020, 04:26:07 PM »
deaths in care homes amount to a third of the total number of deaths in France. I dunno if it's because they've fucked really badly or if any country will have to expect that

in Ireland care home clusters account for about 50%, last i saw. the governor of Florida is currently locked in a legal battle to hide just how many cases are in retirement homes in the state. the only reason not report those numbers is to cover up the death toll.

Zetetic

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #49 on: April 14, 2020, 04:48:38 PM »
A better attempt to show 'excess' deaths:
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1250007002165755905/photo/1



Quote
cover up the death toll.
Not very effective at that, though.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #50 on: April 14, 2020, 05:00:36 PM »
Since 2010 is a bit limited. On Twitter people have mentioned data isn't available from before then but surely we have an official register of deaths don't we?

17,000 a week is 2428 deaths a day. On average per day in the UK (ie in a more usual non-pandemic year) 1500 people die, so the excess currently while the virus is peaking is approx 900, which is supported by the official figures we are being given.

Zetetic

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #51 on: April 14, 2020, 05:17:00 PM »
Since 2010 is fine as a comparison for these purposes.

The week shown as the latest there isn't this week. (Week 13-14, I think we were seeing 200-400 deaths per day in daily reported figures. So, no, they're not equal. Excess mortality was far above the daily reported deaths in hospital.)

ONS deaths are also 'official figures'.

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #52 on: April 14, 2020, 05:18:18 PM »
I've just realised who Sunak reminds me of



katzenjammer

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #53 on: April 14, 2020, 06:36:25 PM »
Since 2010 is a bit limited. On Twitter people have mentioned data isn't available from before then but surely we have an official register of deaths don't we?

Here it is from 1970

https://twitter.com/HarryKennard/status/1250113283069284352?s=20

chveik

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #54 on: April 14, 2020, 11:17:55 PM »
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/us/coronavirus-updates.html

Quote
New York City, already an epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, sharply increased its death toll by more than 3,700 on Tuesday, after officials said they were now including people who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died because of it.

The new figures, released by the city’s Health Department, drove up the number of people killed in New York City to more than 10,000 and appeared to increase the overall United States fatality rate by 17 percent, to more than 26,000.

The numbers brought into clearer focus the staggering toll the virus has already taken on the largest city in the United States, where deserted streets are haunted by the near-constant howl of ambulance sirens.

Far more people have died in New York City on a per-capita basis than in Italy, the European country with the most deaths.

The revised death toll renewed focus on shortcomings in testing that have hamstrung city and state officials since the beginning of the outbreak. A limited number of tests has been available, and until now, only deaths where a person had tested positive were counted among those killed by the virus in New York.

But for weeks, the Health Department also had been recording additional deaths tied to the virus, according to two people briefed on the matter. Those cases involved people who were presumed to have been infected because of their symptoms and medical histories.

They were not included in the counts given publicly by Mayor Bill de Blasio because no tests had confirmed that the victims had Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

Officials like Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, encouraged by data suggesting a flattening curve, have begun to edge toward setting a strategy for reopening New York, partnering with other states in the Northeast, including New Jersey, to create a coordinated strategy. But Mr. Cuomo has emphasized that the reopening was dependent on New Yorkers continuing to observe the restrictions that were imposed weeks ago.

BlodwynPig

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #55 on: April 15, 2020, 01:56:45 PM »
The BBC are really highlighting how unnecessary they are these days

Main headline: "Coronavirus cases close on 2 million"

Worldometer: Number of cases passed 2 million earlier today

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #56 on: April 15, 2020, 02:20:15 PM »
Death figures going to be huge today

Zetetic

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Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #57 on: April 15, 2020, 02:23:40 PM »
?

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #58 on: April 15, 2020, 02:24:33 PM »
Death figures going to be huge today

761 today for the UK. Not the huge increase that was expected. Hopefully an indication that we are now in the midst of the peak and it will slowly go down.

Re: CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III
« Reply #59 on: April 15, 2020, 02:25:27 PM »
?

Weekend figures are usually lower due to issues in reporting. With a four day weekend showing lower figures, it was expected that today would be a big jump up. Thankfully that hasn't been the case.

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