CORONAVIRUS 2020: RHYTHM OF THE DEATH III

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Schools, bars and restaurants are not being closed under the restrictions.

'Lockdown'.

[Bence Fekete]

With benefits.

Idk, they do keep trotting out this households are most infectious line. I might start believing it if I was still actually capable of belief.

[imitationleather]

Sitting at home doesn't help the economy. Get out there and pull your weight for capitalism!

[Zetetic]

Furloughing is in the hands of the Imperial Administration, remember.

[BlodwynPig]

Sitting at home doesn't help the economy. Get out there and pull your weight for capitalism!

Still seething after they built that Aldi on top of my allotment.

[Fambo Number Mive]

30 people who died within 28 days of a coronavirus test reported today in the UK. Highest since end of July.

Aside from locking down Bolton and blaming the young, what are the government going to do?

[Cloud]

Fuck all.   And that thing of telling the young they need to get back to school, get back to work, it won't hurt you because you're young, go fill the pubs and restaurants to help out and then implying that they're all irresponsible and the ones to blame for the rise in numbers... appalling

Who knows what the death numbers would be if it wasn't for the convenient 28 day fudge?

Who knows what the case numbers would be it it wasn't for the convenient "oh we're all out of tests but you might get one if you drive 200 miles while coughing your guts up" fudge?

[Fambo Number Mive]

I agree entirely.

Johnson's asking for more questions from the public, so he might be holding a press conference in the next few days.

[BlodwynPig]

I agree entirely.

Johnson's asking for more questions from the public, so he might be holding a press conference in the next few days.

would love it to be full lockdown again.

[Dr Rock]

Help me with this debate I'm having with my brother - he reckons all the deaths from Covid are people who would have died soon anyway (old people) and the rest are people with underlying conditions. I said there are loads of people dying from it who are young or middle-aged and have no underlying conditions. Loads? I dunno.

So roughly what percentages of those who have died were under 55 and had nothing wrong with them like diabetes or whatever. Cheers x

[NoSleep]

Being in an at risk group is far different from being close to dead, as your risk status could change and you might not die of your underlying condition; it might even be reversed. No chance of improvement if you die of covid before you get the opportunity.

[BlodwynPig]

You may also be very very ill for a very very long time.

It's not a bee sting.

[Zetetic]

For a start:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinjune2020#characteristics-of-those-dying-from-covid-19

If I'm reading this right:

About 10-15% of those aged under 70 who have died of COVID-19 so far in Wales and England had none of the "main pre-existing health conditions" mentioned on their death certificates. These "main" conditions include dementia, diabetes, COPD, pneumonia and heart disease.

About 4-5% of deaths in June amongst English people aged 45-64 involved COVID-19.

About 3-4% of deaths in June amongst English people aged 15-44 involved COVID-19.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

That is approximately in line with other estimates I've read over the last few months (both for the UK and other European countries at different points).

Your brother, Dr Rock, isn't that far away from the truth (though if he expressed himself anything like you've indicated he did that won't have been very convincing).

[Zetetic]

There have been about 540 deaths of people aged under 45 in Wales and England so far.

In about 100 of these deaths, there was no mention of a "pre-existing condition" on the death certificate.

There have been about 1,850 deaths of people aged under 55 in Wales and England so far.

In about 300 of these deaths, there was no mention of a "pre-existing condition" on the death certificate.

(As Blodwyn points out, death is not the only bad outcome.)

[Dr Rock]

So one in five, or one in six Covid deaths, where those that died were under 50, died cos of the virus, and not being aged or already had something up with them? That sounds about right.

[NoSleep]

There's probably conditions that are otherwise harmless and not usually monitored that make some vulnerable to covid.

[Zetetic]

I wouldn't say that the remaining five sixths didn't die of the virus, just because they had some chronic condition.

You don't always know that you've got pre-existing condition, of course...

[Zetetic]

I note that one of the most common "pre-existing conditions" is pneumonia. Untangling the causal routes there in someone who later tests positives for COVID-19 is not straightforward.

[NoSleep]

Hmm... the rapper Ty died of pneumonia whilst still in hospital recovering from a period in intensive care due to covid. Bit of a chicken/egg situation I think.

[Cloud]

It was back in late March but I think this guy's video still applies when it comes to the "they were going to die anyway" thing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ts8X3HDtPE

Without digging up more numbers (CBA... there have been enough anecdotes that I believe them) a lot of people, as we've seen since, have been suffering long tail covid for 4-5 months and were fit and healthy before.  Often, those who've had a difficult outcome or died who weren't in the "already teetering on their perch" category seem to be people who've been battered with a high viral load e.g. doctors, nurses, teachers.  What I will quickly link is the >620 NHS staff whose deaths have been linked to it - these aren't people who were sat in a retirement home about to fall off at any moment: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-nhs-deaths-healthcare-workers-covid-care-doctors-nurses-a9665386.html

The "muh freedom" types who are still angry about the lockdown and now want society back to 100% normal so they can get back to crowded festivals and football stadiums, don't seem to realise that having left everything normal and let it "just burn out" (tear through the population unfettered) not only would've been a giant, future-of-human-race gamble if it'd turned out more deadly (we were still figuring it out) but also meant that people were continuing to get those massive viral loads as it built up everywhere and the consequences could've been vast numbers of the population dead or spending several months recovering.  With worse impact on the economy, NHS and daily life than the 4 months of semi-lockdown.

[Zetetic]

Bit of a chicken/egg situation I think.

More than a bit.

Pneumonia isn't a causative agent. It's a condition brought about respiratory infections, including COVID-19 and infections that you can develop more easily though having COVID-19.

[Zetetic]

The other point about mass infection remains that a lot of people who had COVID-19 in the UK didn't die because they received quite a lot of healthcare.

[jobotic]

You get the 60 day figures here

http://covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com/

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

The other point about mass infection remains that a lot of people who had COVID-19 in the UK didn't die because they received quite a lot of healthcare.

Thankfully I'm having an affair with someone who works at a nuclear power plant so they just wank me off through a hermetically sealed partition with a glove-hole.

[NoSleep]

More than a bit.

Pneumonia isn't a causative agent. It's a condition brought about respiratory infections, including COVID-19 and infections that you can develop more easily though having COVID-19.

Exactly. I can think of a number people I know who went into hospital with one or another severe condition but "cause of death" was pneumonia.

[Zetetic]

Thankfully I'm having an affair with someone who works at a nuclear power plant so they just wank me off through a hermetically sealed partition with a glove-hole.

A bit of an overreaction.

[bgmnts]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/08/coronavirus-gatherings-of-more-than-six-to-be-banned-in-england

Gatherings of more than six to be banned. So that knocks the notion of school returning on the head I assume.

[Harry Badger]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/08/coronavirus-gatherings-of-more-than-six-to-be-banned-in-england

Gatherings of more than six to be banned. So that knocks the notion of school returning on the head I assume.

Bloody hell.

edit - The rule does not apply to schools and workplaces, or weddings, funerals and organised team sports.

[jobotic]

The rule only applies to activities that do not generate revenue.