you have far too much faith in the vaccine rollout
I have no doubt the global rollout will be a proper fuckdown, but even the sputtering US effort has got 6.7m needles into arms already (including 700k into the wrinklies at care homes, the demographic who made up 1/3 of the total US deaths). That’s a big chunk of very vulnerable people who are (to some extent) protected now. Cases will continue to increase 1-2m+ per week because of the bizarre political setup of the US, but if the people at highest risk of dying are protected, I’d expect mortality rates to drop.
There’s so much economic and political pressure to vaccinate every
worker drone valued citizen that even the shittiest and most uncoordinated efforts (like the patchwork US healthcare system) will do at least half a job.
This is, of course, based on absolutely fuck all outside of my reading of the numbers and vague tea-leaf reading hoodoo.