is the EU going to explode?

[chveik]

I've been seeing more and more discussions/articles about this recently. I'm not knowledgeable at all when it comes to economic matters, but it seems like Germany and its allies sticking to their economic orthodoxy is going to create even more divisions. I doubt Italy or Spain will accept to be complete vassals of the ECB.

am I talking rubbish? anyone good with this stuff?

(it'd be ironic if all the brexit madness would've happened for nothing)

[Poirots BigGarlickyCorpse]

Who's saying it? British media?

[chveik]

nah I don't really read that.

I've seen a few leftist economists discussing it. and on the other forum I post.

[Claude the Racecar Driving Rockstar Super Sleuth]

I doubt Italy or Spain will accept to be complete vassals of the ECB.

They don't even play cricket.

[Fambo Number Mive]

I think there will be a sense of pulling together among the EU countries unlike in 2008.

[Buelligan]

They don't even play cricket.

That's a karma post if ever there was one.

[Poirots BigGarlickyCorpse]

I think there will be a sense of pulling together among the EU countries unlike in 2008.

What I've seen reported in the Irish media (I've started watching the news, like a Grown-Up) is that the EU is treating this, to put it bluntly, as "nobody's fault" because you know. Virus. So it won't be like 2008 where ourselves, Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain were kinda told "stop fucking up our beloved eurozone and get your books in order, you money-wasting bastards".

[Wonderful Butternut]

What I've seen reported in the Irish media (I've started watching the news, like a Grown-Up) is that the EU is treating this, to put it bluntly, as "nobody's fault" because you know. Virus. So it won't be like 2008 where ourselves, Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain were kinda told "stop fucking up our beloved eurozone and get your books in order, you money-wasting bastards".

I haven't killed myself on research here, but I believe there's a little disquiet because whilst everyone knows Coronavirs is nobody's fault and that everything should be put into one big EU bond that doesn't mature for a long time (some countries' WW2 debt is still in bonds that are yet to mature), there's a feeling that some countries, such as Italy, Greece and Spain[nb]We're off the hook because of the extent we were willing to completely fuck our own people over to straighten the national finances out[/nb] didn't do as good a job getting their books in order as they should have, and as a result have been hurt more by Coronavirus than they really should have been. There's a bit of eye-rolling, particularly in Holland & Germany, that the same countries are needing a bigger dig out again.

Of course pro-Tory and pro-Brexiteer press will no doubtedly overstate this. And there has been a soft North Europe v. South Europe divide in the EU since forever, and they always find a way to work something out.

[chveik]

What I've seen reported in the Irish media (I've started watching the news, like a Grown-Up) is that the EU is treating this, to put it bluntly, as "nobody's fault" because you know. Virus. So it won't be like 2008 where ourselves, Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain were kinda told "stop fucking up our beloved eurozone and get your books in order, you money-wasting bastards".

well that might be the official line, but in reality it's going to be very different. they won't bail countries or erase debts without asking some really drastic measures (ie austerity), like what's happening with the coronabonds stuff

edit: what WB said (but I have with much less optimism).

the divisions aren't going to disappear

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

The EU is among those institutions marked 'too big to fail'. What I've seen so far is initially pretty ignorant behaviour displayed by Dutch and German banking to the problems in the South, then the French government and EU bigwigs bashing their fucking heads in.

It could be a positive thing in the long run if it costs the rich side of the EU heavily as the more disparity in economic performance, the less of a union it is. I'm sure Spanish, Greek and Italian banking, whatever remnants of it are left, would rather not be stuck in a perpetually servile relationship.

[Wonderful Butternut]

well that might be the official line, but in reality it's going to be very different. they won't bail countries or erase debts without asking some really drastic measures (ie austerity), like what's happening with the coronabonds stuff

edit: what WB said (but I have with much less optimism).

the divisions aren't going to disappear

It kind of depends on what you mean by 'explode'.

Thinking out loud about the practicalities of it:

If Spain and Italy leave, aside from the fact that it'll probably take them years based on the UK experience, what would they do then? Have tariffs if they want to trade with France and Germany? I doubt it. They'd have to come to some sort of agreement which will either screw them economically or leave them in the EU in all but name.[nb]This is till how I expect Brexit to pan out, btw. Obviously I could be wrong as I lack a crystal ball[/nb] I don't think anyone would take that risk, at least not until they see where the UK is a few years down the line from leaving. The pressure on internal Spanish unity, which isn't exactly inconsequential as is, would also surely be increased.

The best I can see is that if they did leave, they (and anyone else who bailed out with them) could form another bloc and negotiate with the EU on that basis. So if that approach went to its natural conclusion across Europe, you'd end up with 4 or 5 little EUs, all with fairly generous trade agreements with each other. That would be messy and damaging, but honestly, I think such an arrangement would gradually coalesce into a single EU again.

At the same time, for their current grumbling about their historic fiscal irresponsibility, Holland & Germany, or anyone else in the EU for that matter, does not really want Spain & Italy to leave. It doesn't benefit them in the slightest. So I'm sure they'll iron something out.


But let's say, somehow, a load of countries manage to take their ball away quickly and at once, and it collapses, in international terms, overnight:

A replacement free trade block would be established almost instantly, because an ever expanding series of bilateral agreements between individual countries would become unmanageable pretty quick, and would ultimately coalesce into a free trade block anyway. Most ex-Eurozone countries would have to peg their currency against a stronger one[nb]Presumably the Deutsche Mark would be the most viable option within the former EU, although some countries would probably look outside, at least initially[/nb] or have their currency be extremely volatile. So then you have a free trade area, exchange rates fixed against one or more of your neighbours. Hmmm... better start thinking about things like consistency on workers rights and immigration so some jammy bastard doesn't undercut everyone by building sweat shops and importing cheap shit into everyone else's economy, and maybe we might need some nominated representatives from each country within the free trade block to discuss... AND OH LOOK AT WHAT WE'RE DOING HERE LADS. LOOKS A BIT LIKE A UNION OF EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, DOESN'T IT?

I think the worst realistic outcome is that one or two 'bad' countries basically get pegged out of the EU. But I doubt it'll be Spain or Italy, they're too big. That's not a good thing and will cause a lot of friction and grumbling. It may even stall the work of the Euopean Parliament at times, but unless Brexit is a resounding success, I don't think it'll lead to further break up.

[chveik]

very interesting post, a lot to think about.

apparently this recession is going to be much more important than the 2008 one, so I suppose I'm expecting that the current economic system within the EU won't be sustainable for much longer. but you're right, every country's pretty much in a double bind.

[Poirots BigGarlickyCorpse]

very interesting post, a lot to think about.

apparently this recession is going to be much more important than the 2008 one, so I suppose I'm expecting that the current economic system within the EU won't be sustainable for much longer. but you're right, every country's pretty much in a double bind.

Ehh, the EU has a lot of stuff in place to make it advantageous for members to trade with each other, that's kind of the point of it. Unless it disintegrates completely I don't think a country is better off for leaving it. nvm I don't know what I'm talking about

Euroskeptic groups are more likely to make hay out of omg open borders allowing Commies to spread corona via 5G towers, imo.

[idunnosomename]

i believe it is spelt E.X.P.L.O.D.E.

[olliebean]

Who's saying it? British media?

Whatever happens to the EU, even if it goes on to be a roaring success, the British Media will mostly be reporting that we're well out of it.

[drummersaredeaf]

'too big to fail'.

Like Sam Allardyce.