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Werewolves of London Mafia Day 2

Started by MSG, May 09, 2020, 09:54:00 PM

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Ferris

Quote from: kittens on May 10, 2020, 10:10:30 AM
haha. oh yeah. fucking hell ferris.

definitely vote player ferris

Do what you gotta do - you can get me tonight or tomorrow night. I'm toast either way.

My value proposition is - leave me in a round, then get me next night if I'm lying. If I'm lying, you get me anyway and it makes no odds, if I'm telling the truth, then the town gets an extra piece of information. It's as clear cut a win-win as you can get in this game.

Voting against that seems bizarre to me (my play makes no sense unless I'm telling the truth and I'm out either way so I have nothing to gain) but ok.

kittens

mayor needs to get of his fat arse and make a ruling. i'm being swayed whenever anyone makes a counterargument. just tell me who to vote for

Ferris

Quote from: kittens on May 10, 2020, 10:14:54 AM
mayor needs to get of his fat arse and make a ruling. i'm being swayed whenever anyone makes a counterargument. just tell me who to vote for

You're not swayed by my argument? Pretty susp tbh.

If I was a wolf and wanted a townie gone, I'd just say nothing because the odds would still be massive in our favour, and there's no way I'd out myself as a wolf this early and this obviously for no gain. And you get to prove me right tonight or tomorrow, I just want it to be tomorrow so I get another chance at investigating.

Buelligan

Quote from: FerriswheelBueller on May 10, 2020, 10:13:26 AM
Do what you gotta do - you can get me tonight or tomorrow night. I'm toast either way.

My value proposition is - leave me in a round, then get me next night if I'm lying. If I'm lying, you get me anyway and it makes no odds, if I'm telling the truth, then the town gets an extra piece of information. It's as clear cut a win-win as you can get in this game.

Voting against that seems bizarre to me (my play makes no sense unless I'm telling the truth and I'm out either way so I have nothing to gain) but ok.

It does make a difference if you get us to kill a goodie though, I'd feel better about this if you hadn't accused Jim Bob and to a lesser extent, me, if it's true that you knew Shiftwork was the baddie.  To me, that just drops a hole right through your argument. 

Ferris

I don't think that makes sense, look at the post timings, I was a bit pissed up when I went this direction a few hours after trying to be clever and hide the fact I was a copper. But that got me thinking - how much value to the townies is a secret copper anyway? Probably not much because they can't communicate effectively so they might get one wolf maybe if they're smart and play it right.

This way, I've got one wolf 100% (either today or tomorrow) so under those assumptions from a gaming perspective it's a smart play for the townies (although... not for me personally as I get lynched or eaten) and you can find out if I'm lying right away.

I just want the extra day to do an extra investigate, and would ask the doctor do the protection thing tonight on me if poss.

It is possible that I wasn't pissed, am a random townie, and am just ruining the game because I'm a twat (and got up at 4.30am to post in here to give my Guinness-y hangover story more credence), but balance of probability does that really make sense? And even if that was true, you get me the very next day so it's hardly a master stroke on my part.

Buelligan

Oh I dunno Ferris, I need to get on with my day.  I just think you did nominate selective (who was innocent).  Since then you've pointed the finger at Jim Bob, Shiftwork, me and now, kittens, all the time saying you know for definite who the baddie is.  That doesn't look like you're that worried about getting a goodie hung to me (or that you really know who the baddie is).

Ferris

Quote from: Buelligan on May 10, 2020, 10:49:40 AM
Oh I dunno Ferris, I need to get on with my day.  I just think you did nominate selective (who was innocent).  Since then you've pointed the finger at Jim Bob, Shiftwork, me and now, kittens, all the time saying you know for definite who the baddie is.  That doesn't look like you're that worried about getting a goodie hung to me (or that you really know who the baddie is).

You do you, mon frere.

When I come back 100% townie, then I hope everyone reading remembers who was arguing with the clearest, most foolproof win-win value proposition in the game.

Ferris

Quote from: Buelligan on May 10, 2020, 10:49:40 AM
Oh I dunno Ferris, I need to get on with my day.  I just think you did nominate selective (who was innocent).  Since then you've pointed the finger at Jim Bob, Shiftwork, me and now, kittens, all the time saying you know for definite who the baddie is.  That doesn't look like you're that worried about getting a goodie hung to me (or that you really know who the baddie is).

And for the record, that fact pattern fits my amateurish renegade "fuelled by Guinness" style perfectly, so it's a pretty good indicator I'm on the straight.

Ferris

Actually shit what am I saying, if the doctor can protect me from wolves then as long as I don't get lynched I can keep investigating and we can only lynch when I find a wolf (assuming the doc protects me each night).

If you give me a chance, we probably win. If I'm lying, then you get me the next night and lose nothing.

Can't say fairer than that.

kittens

doc can't protect the same guy two nights in a row. you have convinced me though.

unvote ferris
vote shiftwork

Ferris

Oh ok didn't realize the doc was such a diva. Well I'll get an extra investigate anyway. 11 players left and I know me (copper) and shiftwork (wolf), so I can take a shot at random. That gives us a 1/9 chance knowing and dispatching the 2 regular wolves within 3 rounds and giving us an 8:1 advantage. If I get 2 investigates that becomes 1/9 + 1/8 = 23.5% chance of us figuring it out (and even higher if the wolves take out more townies so the smart move for them at this point is not to kill anyone*), which is miles better than random guessing. Have you see the state of the other game? Hanging innocents like nobody's business.

Alright alright alright.

*because I have 1/9 shot at guessing another wolf this round (~11%), and if they kill someone overnight, then my selection pool reduces for that round and I end up with a 1/7 chance of getting it right 2nd time, which is ~11% + ~14.4% = just over 25% or 1/4. While I'm alive, the wolves best option is to do jack shit and try to muddy the waters as best they can because we'll have them at a numerical disadvantage

pancreas

Would anyone like to speak against Ferris?

He makes a convincing case, and I'm even prepared to suspend my vendetta against kittens for the time-being, despite how much it pains me.

Let me be clear: I don't care if he is a wolf or not. kittens must die for challenging my authoritas. I want him strung up in front of a signpost with his entrails spelling out the word paed. Just maybe not right now.

shiftwork2

Yeah, funnily enough I would.

Nice trap Ferris.

Your intention is to get us to reveal the cop, and also to get your second townie lynch in to complement yesterday's.  Your cop claim has gone unchallenged so far but a couple of people are yet to post (and a few are unable, which I think you knew) and this will fall apart when they do.  I would urge the cop to think carefully about revealing themselves so early on but you would stop a townie lynch. On balance though, please save me.

I'd also urge all players to have a very careful read back of the play so far.  This is out of the blue.  As a shitmuncher townie again that makes me 100% that you are wolf.  Thing is, you haven't done this with enough care – your story about choosing me for my suspicious behaviour was an outright lie, and so is the rest of this.

shiftwork2

And – I'm surmising a fair bit in this but it does fit – I think this oddball play is happening because you are the only wolf and haven't had any advice. Your two friends are amongst the three non-participants (Paul Calf, Jim Bob and the Wegger) and you've been left out on your own to balls it up.

Your two friends being out of play may also explain why there was no night kill.

Could the no death thing be because the doctor saved the likely candidate? Presumably in this case Mayor Pancreas.

shiftwork2


Ferris

A bold late play! But it doesn't follow the fact pattern unfortunately.

I say again, string me up tonight or tomorrow, it doesn't matter. I'll get revealed as the copper and shiftwork gonn be chopps the next day vs let me go for one more night, and I'll have another shot. I'll be proved truthful tonight either way (via shiftwork being revealed as a wolf or myself being revealed as the copper).

Either way, I've made my play and I've got one wolf for you. Give me one more night to find another.

shiftwork2

You must have a police officer character name Ferris.  What is it?  Careful when you make it up - if you duplicate it with the real cop you'll be exposed.

Ferris

Quote from: shiftwork2 on May 10, 2020, 02:19:38 PM
You must have a police officer character name Ferris.  What is it?  Careful when you make it up - if you duplicate it with the real cop you'll be exposed.

Officer McWolf-Finder.

It's dutch.

shiftwork2

Oh I forgot to say - when you make it up, keep it plausible.

WOLF

shiftwork2

Quote from: FerriswheelBueller on May 10, 2020, 02:13:09 PM
A bold late play! But it doesn't follow the fact pattern unfortunately.

Also, could you point out what's wrong with the fact pattern?

kittens

oh christ now i believe shiftwork. fucking hell.

but ferris has a point, if he is lying, he's definitely getting lynched tomorrow. or we lynch him tonight. and he might turn out to be a wolf if we do it tonight. or the cop. fuck knows.

ummmmm  unvote shiftwork
vote ferris

Ferris

Quote from: shiftwork2 on May 10, 2020, 02:50:12 PM
Also, could you point out what's wrong with the fact pattern?

Absolutely! I'd be glad to - my argument is clear and makes sense. The more excuses I get to lay it out in this thread, the better. I understand your only play is to obfuscate (see: the names stuff above), but I want my points to be here as much as possible

The facts are these: you are a wolf, I am the copper. This will be disclosed one way or the other tonight. 2 scenarios

A: I'm making it all up, I'm really the wolf. Result - I bump off one townie in the 2nd round when any fule kno that the best thing to do is nothing, and let the law of averages play out. That would give the outcome I wanted 72% of the time. But by making the play I did, I'm also giving myself up, which is objectively a terrible trade. Result - you are toast, so am I. One dead townie, one dead wolf. That's a pretty good deal for the townies - if we can trade 1 for 1 like that, we'd win v quickly because we have the numerical advantage.

B: I'm telling the truth. You are the wolf, and I picked you out and had it confirmed. Now in this instance, you get aced and the townies have a great outcome because I'm still around to have another guess. I can name and knockout 2 wolves in 2 rounds, and I'm still alive after, and you can't knock out a townie this round for the statistical reason given above, and the other townies are safe the round after thatbecause you have to go after me.

NB doc if you are reading this, protect me tonight pls

So here are the facts one way or the other.

Now to be clear, both of these outcomes are good for the town, so I'd be a pretty shit wolf I'd this was a bluff. That said, scenario B is markedly better for the town to the point where the only people arguing against it must have some ulterior agenda.

Even if you think I'm full of it and am doing this for some mad reason, you should still vote to go after you, because that scenario is so much better for the townies. Regardless of my motives, the facts are the facts and those are the two outcomes. We, the townies, the people reading this thread have the ability to make that choice as we have the numerical advantage.

And of course, your concern is for the townies, correct?

Ferris

And to be clear, thinking about it last night through a Guinness fug is when I realized either scenario is good for the town which is why I fucking went for it. Townies win out either way, and that's my main motivation.

Ferris

Another benefit for scenario B and voting for shiftwork - even if I miss the wolf and guess a townie, I can post in the thread and tell the townies who they can trust.

The wolves already know who they are, so there's no secret being revealed on the wolf side, it's just more information for the townies. Though I'd defer to the townies whether they wanted me to reveal it in the thread or not as it may make that person a target. But it's all good info!

Please let me know if you want me to lay out the scenarios again - as I say, the more I can get my message out, the better the outcome for the townies and the worse it is for the wolves.

kittens


pancreas

All this talking is just making me want to kill kittens. I want to kill him so bad.

shiftwork2

But they're not the facts Ferris.  Just restating those words doesn't make it so.

It is scenario A.  It doesn't make rational sense for you to do this I completely agree - but you did, perhaps after a few drinks as you say, and now you're committed.  I think you just wanted something fun to do tbh.  Not all play is rational and it would be a mistake to believe it was.

And, again, I think it's partly because you didn't have any counsel from your friends who are currently sitting out the game.  They would have stopped you.

Ferris

Have you seen my posts?

Come on, this isn't something I've put 0 thought into.

shiftwork2

Also - the name you gave is completely up for discussion.  It doesn't fit the theme at all.  I'd like all players to reflect on how their character names fit either London or Werewolves.  Yours does neither because you made it up in a hurry when pressed.

Admittedly a tiny bit out on a limb with this but it's what I've seen in the Blackadder game and my own character name.  Which, rather excellently, is Terry McCann out of Minder.