Werewolves of London Mafia Day 3

[kittens]

well, your behaviour seemed strange from my point of view, voting for jim bob, then a bit later seeming to decide upon this new strategy. i was sure most of the day you were tricking us. but you ultimately convinced me, because we couldve just killed you today had you turned out to be lying.

[Buelligan]

I think you're being really unfair Ferris.  When I challenged your assertions, you more or less said that those who didn't go along with you must be baddies. 

Again, I hope everyone reading remembers who is pushing back the most against the most straightforward game theory positive outcome you can have in this game.

And you did give two different names

Officer McWolf-Finder.

It's dutch.

For the record, I am PC Tony Stamp (who I see was in the Bill).

And you said that Jim Bob was deffo a wolf, voted for him, then said you were only bluffing, then investigated him and found he was town.  Like select was.  Only select's dead now, because you voted for him, because you were wrong.  Why don't you investigate me or kittens before you call us wolves because, like Jim Bob and select, we are innocent.

[drummersaredeaf]

A question then, Buellers: why are you so convinced Ferris is not the cop?

[Ferris]

I'm not trying to be unfair, genuinely. Just throwing my 2 pennorth out there. My opinion is worth the same as everyone else's now that I missed with my 2nd guess at JimBob.

I was trying to get some investigating done out in the open on the basis that the 3 wolves knew I was telling the truth and to what extent would they push back?

I gave 2 names because I didn't want to rise to the obfuscation tactics of shiftwork, so gave one that was deliberately absurd to close that off because I wasn't interested in giving him ammunition to muddy the waters. Do you think I was genuinely pretending I was given the character name Officer McWolf-Finder (with the addendum that it was Dutch)? And then, oh shit, I gotta give one that sounds realistic? Other people then got on board with his line of inquiry (yourself included as confirmation that I was definitely lying if I recall correctly) which, although I thought it was a daft investigative tactic, I gave out my real name for the benefit of people reading.

And for the record, whatever anyone at the time thought, I turned out to be telling the truth. You'll agree that your line of questioning was, while potentially well-intentioned, harmful to the townie side? Nearly cost them a townie and saved a wolf? Maybe that was unintentional, maybe not, but it's what I'm going on. And you can lynch me if you like, I've done what I set out to.

Vote player buelligan

[drummersaredeaf]

A question then, Buellers: why are you so convinced Ferris is not the cop?

This is badly framed actually. Buelligan - convince me Ferris is not the cop.

[Buelligan]

A question then, Buellers: why are you so convinced Ferris is not the cop?

Sorry, I'm in the middle of woodworking thing, so not paying enough attention. 

I'm not convinced he's not the cop, I've never said I was convinced either way.  I just prefer to look at the evidence and make a choice based on that.  I looked at what was being said yesterday and like you posted earlier today, there were several completely logical ways of interpreting it.  There was nothing that convinced me either way.  And there were some things, the name-changing, the vote-changing, that made me feel doubtful about what Ferris was saying.  I see that as perfectly logical.

Right now, let's say Ferris is definitely the cop, that's how he was able to detect Shiftwork.  That doesn't mean that his hunches are any better than anyone else's.  He can investigate someone - he investigated Jim Bob last night and says Jim Bob's a goodie.  But Ferris's hunch, before he investigated was that Jim Bob was a wolf.  He also believed that Select was a wolf (and we know, certainly, he wasn't). 

So I'm saying even if you 110% believe Ferris is the cop, it doesn't follow that he's always correct with his guesses.  We have proof that he isn't.  His guesses are as good as any of ours and we know he's made several wrong ones already.

[Ferris]

Don't think I ever claimed I have super guessing ability, in fact...

Just throwing my 2 pennorth out there. My opinion is worth the same as everyone else's now that I missed with my 2nd guess at JimBob.

I was doing my investigating out in the open because the way I played meant I wasn't going to get a lot of shots at night. I was suspicious of JimBob after the first round (and just because he was muted for the 2nd didn't mean I'd forgotten about him). With him cleared, I am absolutely investigating yourself/kittens depending on if I make it through the night or not.

_{Spoiler: I won't make it through the night}

[Buelligan]

I'm not saying that you did claim super guessing ability, this is not all about you.  I'm simply saying that, IMO, consideration of known facts is more useful than following random hunches.  Doing that allows you to be played.

[Ferris]

Fair enough, you mentioned me by name so figured I'd respond.

I was telling the truth yesterday. What other known facts do we have?

[kittens]

if ferris gets to tomorrow, he is confirmed wolf.

i note paul calf got his random accusation in and has since buggered off. he's the guy we ought to be killing.

[drummersaredeaf]

if ferris gets to tomorrow, he is confirmed wolf.

i note paul calf got his random accusation in and has since buggered off. he's the guy we ought to be killing.

I'm not sure that's necessarily true about Ferris. They could deliberately leave him in the hope that he's lynched and they get a free kill on someone else. There's not especially any great need for them to off Ferris at this point either. There's a very small chance of him getting the vanilla wolf, and if he gets the alpha that could strengthen their hand.

[kittens]

the reason i said that was to make the wolves leave him alone so we have the cop for longer BUT YOU'VE GONE AND BLOWN THAT
this is the last time i try to be crafty

[drummersaredeaf]

I WAS ALSO BEING CRAFTY IT'S THE END OF DAYS IF HE GOES ANY TIME SOON.

PLEASE DON'T LEAVE ME FERRIS

[Ferris]

I suspect they'll eat me up tonight, sorry everyone. Agree with kittens though, if I make it to tomorrow intact, then that is super suspicious and I'd understand if I had to be got (even though you will find my pointy sheriff badge and crumpled shirt for hat in my shorts after the fact).

What say the quiet people? Angrew/Torso/Calf?

[Jim Bob]

i note paul calf got his random accusation in and has since buggered off. he's the guy we ought to be killing.

I agree.  He's my number one suspect right now.

Vote Paul Calf

I suspect they'll eat me up tonight, sorry everyone. Agree with kittens though, if I make it to tomorrow intact, then that is super suspicious...

Not necessarily.  There's always the town doctor (I'd speculate as to who that may be, but that doesn't seem wise, as surely it's best for whoever it is to work in secrecy); they could cast their protection vote in your favour.  It all depends on whether they believe you to be the town cop or not, I suppose.  I know I do and would encourage the town doctor to vote wisely and save your skin (if they're even reading this - there's players who aren't much participating.  Knowing our luck, one of them is the town doctor and hasn't even cast a protection vote as of yet.  Probably don't even know they have the ability).

[Ferris]

^I think the town doctor voted to save me last night (I openly asked them to anyway) and I don't think they can protect the same person twice in a row. I also think that's why the wolves went for Cuellar instead of me, because they knew I was on the level and the doc would likely protect me (cos no one else was a real candidate for protection) so I'm unprotected tonight.

They can't let me get another guess, because even if I'm lynched by the townies the next day I'll still have provided the info (that will be verified after I'm gone) similar to the play I made against shiftwork. Agree it would look dead suspicious if I made it another night though.

[kittens]

why the hell did they kill cuellar tho. he came out against ferris in the very last minutes which made him look very wolfy. most likely he would've been lynched today. i guess what we have on our hands here is a case of very dumb werewolves.

[Ferris]

Yeah the Cuellar move makes no sense to me either.

[Gregory Torso]

What say the quiet people? Angrew/Torso/Calf?

I have had real life things to attend to the last couple of days which is why I haven't been posting much. I have been reading though, and I fwiw I don't trust anyone apart from dear leader Pancreas.
I believe Ferris, although man you could have waited a while and collected more info before outing yourself.
The main thing that's confusing me is what the fuck are the wolfs doing? No kill first night, random kill last night. I guess they must have thought the doctor would be protecting the cop, so why not at least go for the mayor?

[Gregory Torso]

Also, kind of agree with kittens and Jim about Paul Calf. He's got time to pop in, stir some shit and then disappear again, hasn't he?

[Ferris]

I agree.  He's my number one suspect right now.

Vote Paul Calf

Not necessarily.  There's always the town doctor (I'd speculate as to who that may be, but that doesn't seem wise, as surely it's best for whoever it is to work in secrecy); they could cast their protection vote in your favour.  It all depends on whether they believe you to be the town cop or not, I suppose.  I know I do and would encourage the town doctor to vote wisely and save your skin (if they're even reading this - there's players who aren't much participating.  Knowing our luck, one of them is the town doctor and hasn't even cast a protection vote as of yet.  Probably don't even know they have the ability).

Ok - how about this. I'll vote calf also (he is on some shady shit), and investigate someone else (buelligan/kittens/anyone else?) tonight. You are certain it ain't buellers so I'm happy to go along with that, plus I like her name and woodworking is a useful skill for the town.

This way, we get more info overnight on the basis of your say-so and calf has to do some explaining (no more staying quiet) or he's for the chop. That feels like a good move to me.

Happy to investigate anyone the townie me feel is helpful.

Unvote player buelligan

Vote player Paul Calf

[Buelligan]

I'm not doing woodworking right now.  It's been raining here for over 24 hours and now the bastard springs have sprung in the downstairs bit and it's all merrily swimming in icy spring water.  I've had to bring all my woodwork, tools and furniture up to the higher levels.  But I still get to cook paddling.  Fucking hell at least it's clean water.  I don't know about Paul, he hasn't said enough for me to feel anything about it but I admit, right now, I'm quite distracted.

[Jim Bob]

Ok - how about this. I'll vote calf also (he is on some shady shit), and investigate someone else (buelligan/kittens/anyone else?) tonight. You are certain it ain't buellers so I'm happy to go along with that, plus I like her name and woodworking is a useful skill for the town.

This way, we get more info overnight on the basis of your say-so and calf has to do some explaining (no more staying quiet) or he's for the chop. That feels like a good move to me.

You and I are on the same wavelength.  I fully agree with your thoughts and plan of action here.  It would be nice to know whether kittens is on the level or not (I suspect that he is but I'm less sure about him being a townie than I am of Buelligan), so I would encourage you to investigate kittens during the night.

[Gregory Torso]

Right, I'm putting my trust in Ferris and his cop sense.

vote Paul Calf

Paul, you are welcome to come into the thread and defend yourself.

[Jim Bob]

Ah, shite.  I was just looking over the team roles again as a refresher and I forgot about the alpha werewolf; who will appear as a townie if investigated by the town cop.  This makes things substantially more difficult.  I'm not sure how we'll be able to eliminate the alpha without resorting to blind luck (and likely losing innocent townies in the process).  This does not bode well.  We must be careful and methodical in our suspicions and eliminations.  For now I suggest that we pray that Ferris remains in the game for as long as possible (as the town cop) and concentrate on weeding out the one remaining regular werewolf.  We can worry about the alpha after that.

[kittens]

feel free to investigate me. i am normal town man but i guess it would be advantageous to have that proven.

[Paul Calf]

Not much I can say in evidence for myself really as there's nothing hard to go on. Up to you, but you're killing a Townie.

I'm suspicious of Jim Bob as well as kittens because they seem to be working in tandem to initiate pile-ons and Jim Bob in particular offers a load of emotive guff when accused and little else.

Up to you. Your funeral. Or mine. But you're killing a Townie.

[Paul Calf]

nb: I'm still not entirely convinced that FWB is Town.

[Paul Calf]

nbnb: I've been working today, you feckless dolescum.

[Jim Bob]

Yeah, you're almost certainly a wolf, Paul.  I saw this kind of desperate move in the last game from the mafia; when it's looking like curtains for a scum player, they start lashing out, hopelessly attempting to sew seeds of doubt among the townies.

Time to put this flea ridden mongrel to sleep, methinks.