Werewolves of London Mafia Day 4

[Buelligan]

Buelligan really set alarms off for me though. Seemed too 'actively passive' and I thought that would be a good ploy to muddy the waters. Plus, there was little reason why she shouldn't have joined the pile on of shiftwork at that point. Ferris was right - had he lied we could have just had him the next day and it's still a townie for a wolf trade very early in the game.

Heheh.  You can't have it both ways, either the cop's just another townie and it's a townie for a wolf.  Or they're valuable and it's not a townie for a wolf, it's a cop for a wolf.

[Cuellar]

It was also a simplistic way of viewing that scenario.  As drummers pointed out, it could just as easily been that Ferris was a wolf who'd thrown Shiftwork under the bus to gain the trust of the townies and prevent them knowing the truth.  The fact that, after Shiftwork, the next deaths were townies, including the doctor (arguably the most valuable player), should increase suspicion of Ferris in anyone thinking sensibly about it.

Yes, this was my reading of the situation:

Cuellar said... (Yesterday, looking at version 1) 
    Ferris is leading them all a merry dance isn't he

    "I'll definitely get got tonight and if I don't well, just get me tomorrow"
    [doesn't get got]
    "ah but I was right about the wolf wasn't I so i'll definitely get got tonight and if I don't well, just get me tomorrow"
    ETC ETC

    Mugs, absolute mugs.

    I notice that I only got got after deciding to vote for Ferris. They knew I was too dangerous to leave alive.

selectivememory said... (Yesterday, looking at version 1)

    Honestly I have no idea at this point. I feel I might have been wrong about everything, especially seeing how that other game panned out. But of the three I was initially throwing accusations at, it's Ferris that I'm still suspicious of. Other than that, I really don't have a clue.

shiftwork said... (Yesterday, looking at version 1)

    Hi cuellar.

    Not sure how much I can contribute to this with my prior knowledge but I'm enjoying reading your thoughts.

Cuellar said... (~24 hours ago, looking at version 1)

    I think it's all a plan cooked up between the wolves and the Alpha-wolf, Ferris. He can chuck a wolf to the townies under the guise of being a copper: he doesn't need to fear exposure from the REAL copper because he's the Alpha and will appear innocent.

    Someone could come along and say 'no guys I'M the real copper, honest!' but the Ferris groundwork has been done, they're too invested in Ferris being the copper. All it will take when the REAL copper reveals themselves is for Ferris to say 'oh ho! very suspect, isn't it guys? We've got to get rid of this guy' – and if that doesn't work, the wolves will get the copper in the night.

Cuellar said... (~23 hours ago, looking at version 1)

    Haha – oh wooops they've offed another townie! I'm sure the wolves will definitely get Ferris tonight, definitely. Definitely definitely.

    They're being played like fiddles, and I, like my namesake Corbyn, tried to warn them and tried to show them a different path, only to be hounded (quite literally) in the press (back alley lynching).

[Paul Calf]

I never pretended to be a wolf.  I explicitly stated several times over that I was a townie, to the point of swearing upon my family's life that I was.  I thought that people would be decent enough to know that such things are not said lightly, nor in jest.  I felt it would be a good way to let my fellow townies know that I'm on their side.  Instead I learned that most people have no scruples and would happily lie and swear on their families life...

Yes, but that doesn't actually mean anything does it? As my example demonstrated, if you don't have convincing evidence (or swaying rhetoric) to deflect suspicion, you're going to get lynched.

"Swearing on your family's life" doesn't mean anything if you know that lying definitely won't kill your family.

Unless you're preparing the ground for a future bluff...

[Gregory Torso]

I think I painted myself into a corner by being way too quiet on the first couple of days, so if I'd then come out posting loads and questioning people it would have looked hugely suspicious I think. It was so frustrating not being able to just go into the thread and start talking shit to Ferris or kittens, I wanted to do that so much, but had to hang back.

What happened to Angrew, through? Did he forget he was in this?

[Gregory Torso]

Jim Bob: It's not about 'pretending to be a wolf', it's about others making deductions that you might be. Everyone gets paranoid, and if I'd been on the Town side, the way you went after Paul Calf, 'certain' that he was a wolf, would have made me nominate you for a lynching once it was revealed he was innocent.

[drummersaredeaf]

Heheh.  You can't have it both ways, either the cop's just another townie and it's a townie for a wolf.  Or they're valuable and it's not a townie for a wolf, it's a cop for a wolf.

Ah, yes, but it's like poker isn't it. I suspected Ferris was telling the truth so there was an easy way to test that - if shiftwork was a townie then reasonably Ferris must have been a wolf. So it makes sense to sacrifice a possible townie (shiftwork) in order to definitely get a wolf gone. In both cases there is evidence that there is a wolf in play, and once the cop had outed himself (he had) there was no reason not to test shiftwork and Ferris in one move. And that move was to lynch shiftwork.

The fact that you were active in the game at that point but were calling Ferris' uncovering of fact a hunch (I paraphrase) said to me that you were likely trying to direct votes to the next highest player by discrediting Ferris.

[Buelligan]

I think that's fair but have to add that if I had been a townie, I wouldn't have seen any reason at all - what was the reason? - for the cop investigating Shifty.  When the card was turned, it still would've left the question, is Ferris really the cop? 

Is it more likely that he's a wolf, playing us and throwing Shifty under the bus or is it more likely that he amazingly picked only one of two possible wolves on his first pick?  That would've been the question I would've been asking.  Especially given that there were three people out of the game who couldn't challenge his cop story. 

I wasn't calling the Shifty reveal a hunch - I was saying that, even as a pukka cop, he could reveal (accepting the Alpha thing) the guilt or innocence of one player each night.  But that was all.  Investing belief in all of his ideas was pure magical thinking.  A bit like the self-confirming real life thing where cops start believing they're specially gifted at divining criminals.  It's just not a real thing.  His gift was a one per night thing, any other ideas of his were no more based on fact than anyone else's ideas. 

[drummersaredeaf]

Yeah, but given what was in the open it has to be tested. There is every chance (well about a 1/6) that he got a wolf first night. Given that he did declare, you have to then test that statement. The easy way to test it is to lynch shiftwork. If shiftwork was town then it stands to reason that Ferris is wolf and should be lynched the next day.

Likewise, your suggestion that Ferris doesn't have magical powers is fair - but he did potentially have accurate information. You are right that you need to ask the question whether it is a ploy - and I did. So you you then test that by lynching shiftwork. In that context not lynching shiftwork is the suspicious move. Some were out of the game, some genuinely passive, but your input could have potentially stopped people from voting shiftwork and an alternative (was it kittens?) being pulled over the line at the death. I wasn't certain you were a baddie, but had enough doubt from that that I would have wanted to apply much more pressure in subsequent days.

[Buelligan]

I agree with what you're saying but still think, not talking specifically about this game but generally, even once we'd tested the Shifty thing, it was risky to invest trust in Ferris.  Shifty's wolfdom was not absolute evidence that Ferris was on the level.  I'm not going to say any more about this now because I have my own thoughts about how this strategy could play out and I'm not entirely sure I want to share them if we're going again.  Heheh.

Interestingly though, the game, generally, did make me think about how people's personalities, prejudices and world views influence their choices.  And how random, as well as logical, reality and those choices, really are.

[drummersaredeaf]

Oh yes, I agree entirely about Ferris. I think on balance you'd want to trust him, but once only the alpha remained, I'd have been quite prepared to lynch him as he becomes a liability. I would have liked to have used his lynching as a means of sussing out who is still onside though. Easier said than done.

And I did think it might be somewhat 'in character' for you to criticise a pile on, but also that you might use that to your advantage while all the townies were in a froth. This is a game of poker essentially. You make sacrifices to gain information. And you are quite right, personalities, prejudices, and everything else all feed into that.

[Ferris]

And...I think I've just worked out what was actually going on there.

Olive branch from me ferris.  Good game, good tussle.

??

I genuinely picked someone who was being quiet (that's what I'd do if I was the wolf), and your avatar looked more like a wolfman than Angrew or Cuellar.

This game is eroding trust, I'm being genuine!

[Ferris]

Buelligan really set alarms off for me though. Seemed too 'actively passive' and I thought that would be a good ploy to muddy the waters. Plus, there was little reason why she shouldn't have joined the pile on of shiftwork at that point. Ferris was right - had he lied we could have just had him the next day and it's still a townie for a wolf trade very early in the game.

Yeah it's easy to overvalue the cop as a superman. If you're lucky, they'll get one wolf without misidentifying their alpha. Once they've got two wolves, they are worth negative value in case they misidentify the alpha.

I saw a chance to get one wolf, and took it as a trade because the chances of me getting a second were so low, and doubling down would mean I could lose my shot at the wolf I had in my sights.

[Buelligan]

Yep, well, if I'm ever the cop I'm going to keep my head down until I have both or at least give it a bloody good try.

??

I genuinely picked someone who was being quiet (that's what I'd do if I was the wolf), and your avatar looked more like a wolfman than Angrew or Cuellar.

This game is eroding trust, I'm being genuine!

But isn't Shifty saying he's offering you an olive branch?  That sounds like peacemaking, not whatever the other thing is.  Hold on to your trust Ferris!

[drummersaredeaf]

Laying the ground for the next game already? Interesting...

[Ferris]

Oh yes, I agree entirely about Ferris. I think on balance you'd want to trust him, but once only the alpha remained, I'd have been quite prepared to lynch him as he becomes a liability. I would have liked to have used his lynching as a means of sussing out who is still onside though. Easier said than done.

And I did think it might be somewhat 'in character' for you to criticise a pile on, but also that you might use that to your advantage while all the townies were in a froth. This is a game of poker essentially. You make sacrifices to gain information. And you are quite right, personalities, prejudices, and everything else all feed into that.

Poker is a good analogy, and one I thought of every time shifty/buellers asked me to restate my case.

"You can't bluff me here, lads - I'm the one with the high card so if you want to keep doubling down then fill yer boots, I'm happy to keep saying the same thing over and over", essentially.

Fun game anyway, thanks everyone! I recommend Guinness for strength interdependent game theory outcome analysis.

[Ferris]

Yep, well, if I'm ever the cop I'm going to keep my head down until I have both or at least give it a bloody good try.

But isn't Shifty saying he's offering you an olive branch?  That sounds like peacemaking, not whatever the other thing is.  Hold on to your trust Ferris!

Ok, I didn't know what was going on first day, I only lynched poor selectivememory because Danson looks like a wolfman

All the logic in the world won't predict the fact that sometimes people make decisions for illogical reasons!

(And if you're the cop and you outline one wolf, you would stay in the game? You'd be putting yourself at risk of getting eaten/lynched pretty quick and missing out in the one you had in the bag. Different strategy I suppose, and one that could potentially pay off big-style but I don't think the odds favour that approach. You could improve your odds by reading people? Oh I don't know)

[Buelligan]

The problem with the poker comparison is that it doesn't matter whether you go for the bluff Ferris, you and the possible bluffer are not the focus, it's the rest of the group.  And the rest of the group are turned on or off by all manner of different things, not necessarily the thing you're enticing or threatening them with. 

A bit like your numbers thing, works a treat if people are all tuned into that way of thinking, otherwise, you might as well be singing the national anthem to a tree.  That's how I see it anyway.

[chveik]

I recommend Guinness for strength interdependent game theory outcome analysis.

you did good mate, taking down one wolf and exposing another.

[Ferris]

And that's a fair point, but it is like poker in that (as long as I was very noisy about my accusations so no one could forget), I still make the trade I wanted to make whether it's this round (as happened) or the next round after I get eaten. Attempts to call my bluff on the trade I was making were just that, bluffs, with the added bonus that everyone could see who was arguing against my clear points. I tried to keep the conversation going as much as possible so I could "investigate" in public and have everyone see who was pushing back (and I said as much).

You're right on the numbers, it blew my mind that people didn't look at the odds and say "well how on earth could he be lying", but people are wired in different ways. I was surprised there was as much play in the "real names" as there was.

Future wolves/townies, I like numbers so you should use them to get me on-side.

[drummersaredeaf]

Poker is a game of people though. The maths/logic of it alone is insufficient - you have to have an understanding of the people you're playing. It's no good slow playing something to lure someone into a trap if they are reckless and are not watching what you are doing. They call everything regardless of what you do and catch a lucky card at the end, and you're forced to make a decision on limited information by virtue of playing the opponent wrong. That's the crux of this game too -  it's not just what are they doing, it whether they are doing it in response to something else. And that was apparent in this game. Was Torso being passive just in response to what was going on, or a calculated ploy? Torso wasn't remotely on my radar because he simply wasn't involved - ALW too. But that doesn't mean that information isn't useful later on. The Ferris situation was an easy call, but it would have been interesting to see how flushing out the last two would have panned out, and I suspect it would have gone over a few more days.

Half-arsed fake edit: Maybe Ferris has just said similar

[Buelligan]

And that's a fair point, but it is like poker in that (as long as I was very noisy about my accusations so no one could forget), I still make the trade I wanted to make whether it's this round (as happened) or the next round after I get eaten. Attempts to call my bluff on the trade I was making were just that, bluffs, with the added bonus that everyone could see who was arguing against my clear points. I tried to keep the conversation going as much as possible so I could "investigate" in public and have everyone see who was pushing back (and I said as much).

You're right on the numbers, it blew my mind that people didn't look at the odds and say "well how on earth could he be lying", but people are wired in different ways. I was surprised there was as much play in the "real names" as there was.

Future wolves/townies, I like numbers so you should use them to get me on-side.

I saw the names as irrelevant too, I don't think they were important at all.  But truthfulness, when you're asking for trust, that is important.  When you gave an obviously made up name, when there was no need to, it was a gift.

[Ferris]

^very good point, looking back it was absolutely a mistake & I hadn't thought of it like that

That will teach me to read mod messages properly, as I had no idea we even had names

[Jim Bob]

Jim Bob: It's not about 'pretending to be a wolf', it's about others making deductions that you might be. Everyone gets paranoid, and if I'd been on the Town side, the way you went after Paul Calf, 'certain' that he was a wolf, would have made me nominate you for a lynching once it was revealed he was innocent.

That's fine and agreeable.  It's just the way in which the question was phrased; "what the bleeding hell was Jim Bob playing at? If you're Town, is there any play in pretending that you're a wolf?" that rubbed me up the wrong way.  If Paul Calf had simply said "why was Jim Bob continually making poor tactical choices that made him appear to be a wolf?", then I'd have no issue.  After all, I agree that in hindsight I made some regrettable tactical decisions.  It was simply the accusation that I was purposefully trying to appear to be a wolf that had me miffed.

[Buelligan]

Don't get miffed, JB.  I've really enjoyed this game and I did get miffed at the end (a tiny bit and foolishly) but one of the best parts of the whole thing was the teamy-ness and the good-sportedness of everyone.  And the good-natured way we've talked about it after, because we all enjoyed it, none of us were perfect, it was just a thoroughly enjoyable thing we all did together.  It was really good.

[Jim Bob]

Don't get miffed, JB.  I've really enjoyed this game and I did get miffed at the end (a tiny bit and foolishly) but one of the best parts of the whole thing was the teamy-ness and the good-sportedness of everyone.  And the good-natured way we've talked about it after, because we all enjoyed it, none of us were perfect, it was just a thoroughly enjoyable thing we all did together.  It was really good.

Well, quite.  There are far less silly and minor things in this life for me to be getting miffed about.

[gib]

Ok, I didn't know what was going on first day, I only lynched poor selectivememory because Danson looks like a wolfman

All the logic in the world won't predict the fact that sometimes people make decisions for illogical reasons!

(And if you're the cop and you outline one wolf, you would stay in the game? You'd be putting yourself at risk of getting eaten/lynched pretty quick and missing out in the one you had in the bag. Different strategy I suppose, and one that could potentially pay off big-style but I don't think the odds favour that approach. You could improve your odds by reading people? Oh I don't know)

There's a compromise approach which is for the cop to leave 'breadcrumbs', so that when they eventually die their teammates can look back and figure out what their views were. It's risky though because the crumbs are either so subtle they get missed or so obvious the scum players figure out what you're doing and kill you anyway.

[Cuellar]

If I'm ever the cop I'm going to make the first letter of every sentence spell out who the wolf is.

Oh crap!

[Paul Calf]

That's fine and agreeable.  It's just the way in which the question was phrased; "what the bleeding hell was Jim Bob playing at? If you're Town, is there any play in pretending that you're a wolf?" that rubbed me up the wrong way.  If Paul Calf had simply said "why was Jim Bob continually making poor tactical choices that made him appear to be a wolf?", then I'd have no issue.  After all, I agree that in hindsight I made some regrettable tactical decisions.  It was simply the accusation that I was purposefully trying to appear to be a wolf that had me miffed.

Ah, OK. Fair enough. I was overthinking your strategy as I thought you might have a reason for playing like that. Again, sorry for boiling over in that third round.