Cook'd and Bomb'd Mafia: Blodwyn's Island Day 3 - Fires in the Fall

[Delete Delete Delete]

I ask the question if you were Invader, would you want to appear so close to someone in the game thread?

If youl ook at my votes you will see I've voted for nearly everyone in this game, ecpet maybe for Gib, but my final votes have never fallen on the Townie that got lynched. I tried to save Beulligan because i thought she was Townie, I tried to save Ceuller because I thought he was Townie. Don't get confused between a pressure vote to find more information and an actual final death blow vote.

And yes I do worry at the end that Gib will turn up to be Invader at the end and that I have been had, but I don't think he is, mainly for the reason that his thought process seems similar to mine, and there are a lot of moments I think yes that is the right play. 

[drummersaredeaf]

Fucking hell delete. Just when I was thinking i was on team Greggles.

[DrGreggles]

1 Delete Delete Delete
2 Gib
3 JimBob
4 Drummersaredeaf

If you are Town vote Delete Delete Delete today. (all 6 votes will be needed)
If you are Town vig, kill Gib tonight.
*I will be killed tonight*
If you are Town vote JimBob tomorrow.
If you are Town vig, kill Drummersaredeaf tomorrow.

This is how we win.

[drummersaredeaf]

Here's my thinking:

If we look at gib-delete vs greg-cerys, and ignore the other two for a second:

This war is a proxy war for editgate. And in editgate both parties were ultimately innocent. So here we have both sides who simply picked the wrong side in a war in which there is no winner. Looking at it like that, why does that make Cerys guilty? And how did Greggle's vote help the invaders? It simply added another name to the hat for a random draw rather than definitely offing a townie.

gib-delete meanwhile look much more suspicious in that context, and again, the buddying up thing has always sat uneasily with me. You are right, that buddying up would be a risky move for invaders, but that's not necessarily a reason not to do it. It gives you protection because it looks like an insane move.

Based on that logic, I have to go against you, don't I?

[drummersaredeaf]

Hang on a second here greggles! I just posted that I was inclined to come down on your fucking side! How am I pulled into this suddenly?

[Delete Delete Delete]

Good plan Dr Greggles, apart from I'm Townie and will be revealed by my death. In which case that discredits your list. Are you wlling to stake your life on me being Scum?

[Delete Delete Delete]

gib-delete meanwhile look much more suspicious in that context, and again, the buddying up thing has always sat uneasily with me. You are right, that buddying up would be a risky move for invaders, but that's not necessarily a reason not to do it. It gives you protection because it looks like an insane move.

Based on that logic, I have to go against you, don't I?

If you think me and Gib are genius, then you have to fall on that logic yes. in that case I'm happy with the compliment.

If we drw from the logic of Cropgate, then that would lead to both parties being innocent. Does that make sense in that context?

[DrGreggles]

Good plan Dr Greggles, apart from I'm Townie and will be revealed by my death. In which case that discredits your list. Are you wlling to stake your life on me being Scum?

Yes

[Delete Delete Delete]

Yes

Ok then you are Townie.

[drummersaredeaf]

It possibly does, yes. But this is the option that is laid before us today. On balance, does it seem unlikely that there are no invaders in this war of 6 - yes it probably does.

But if you're going to follow my logic that it was a proxy war in which both sides were wrong, why does that necessarily vindicate everyone that was on the periphery of it either?

And beyond the 'buddying up' aspect, the moves haven't necessarily been genius as they've hurt the town. And more directly than Cerys and Greggles. Which is why when I try to plumb in my thinking, it makes sense that of the two sides, the greggles side is more likely to be be benign.

And this doesn't mean that all of your side are invaders, but it would be a clever move to buddy with someone you know to be town to keep good cover, wouldn't it?

[Delete Delete Delete]

It dosn't make sense to me why an Invader would have such a bold list. Its more the list of someone who feels impassioned who think hes caught out some invaders. The invaders MO has been to remain very passive, so to suddenly jump in like that full force dosn't wash with me.

[Delete Delete Delete]

It possibly does, yes. But this is the option that is laid before us today. On balance, does it seem unlikely that there are no invaders in this war of 6 - yes it probably does.

But if you're going to follow my logic that it was a proxy war in which both sides were wrong, why does that necessarily vindicate everyone that was on the periphery of it either?

And beyond the 'buddying up' aspect, the moves haven't necessarily been genius as they've hurt the town. And more directly than Cerys and Greggles. Which is why when I try to plumb in my thinking, it makes sense that of the two sides, the greggles side is more likely to be be benign.

And this doesn't mean that all of your side are invaders, but it would be a clever move to buddy with someone you know to be town to keep good cover, wouldn't it?

It would mean I was working in isloation, apart from the other 3 invaders.

How does my death effectt he game for you.

If I am Invader what does that mean for you?
If I am Townie what does that mean for you?

[Delete Delete Delete]

Kittens who do you think are Townies? No sitting on the fence please.

[drummersaredeaf]

It would mean I was working in isloation, apart from the other 3 invaders.

How does my death effectt he game for you.

If I am Invader what does that mean for you?
If I am Townie what does that mean for you?

If you were scum, I don't think we could infer anything about the rest of the scum from you buddying up with gib. This is the Buelligan-TIWS issue once again - either death doesn't necessarily reveal anything useful.

If I were to vote either you or gib, no matter what you turned out as I think I would still want to turn the screw on the surviving member. One of you being invader doesn't necessarily vindicate the other.

[Delete Delete Delete]

If you were scum, I don't think we could infer anything about the rest of the scum from you buddying up with gib. This is the Buelligan-TIWS issue once again - either death doesn't necessarily reveal anything useful.

If I were to vote either you or gib, no matter what you turned out as I think I would still want to turn the screw on the surviving member. One of you being invader doesn't necessarily vindicate the other.

Ok, so for you my death dosn't prove anything. Thats a shame, I was really hoping that some good for the Townies would come from my death. If that  is the case I fucked up there.

What do you think about my vote currently standing for Rizla?

[Paul Calf]

Why is there a Greggles-Delete front? Could both of them be Townie? Could they be Invaders playing us off against each other?

[drummersaredeaf]

I don't know. Why Rizla rather than either of the other two in the new war?

Things are so opaque now, and the reason they are opaque is surely by design. So it becomes a question of motive - who is benefiting from the opacity, and I find it hard when looking at the current proxy war to go against Team Greggles. So then it becomes a question of who is benefiting from that, and surely it's the people that are accusing them.

Today is absolutely pivotal and we need to get one, hopefully two invaders today in order to recast the run of play in this game. If it's going to revolve around picking a side between two sides, then I'm afraid I have to go against you based on how things are now.

[Delete Delete Delete]

Things are so opaque now, and the reason they are opaque is surely by design. So it becomes a question of motive - who is benefiting from the opacity, and I find it hard when looking at the current proxy war to go against Team Greggles. So then it becomes a question of who is benefiting from that, and surely it's the people that are accusing them.

You know i'm not accusing Dr Greggles now. I beleive him to be Townie and its not becuase you posted that. It for the resons i stated before you posted this. Park me aside for one moment. Vote for me at the last minute if you have to, if that what your gut tells you. Lets take it for a given that i will be voted as scum today. Regardless of inncoence. Great thats settled.

Can we start investigating some of the people who are trying their hardest not to play the game.

[drummersaredeaf]

Based on my thinking I am inclined to back Cerys too. She can't be piled on simply by virtue of picking a different side in the Day 1 row.

So who now?

[Delete Delete Delete]

Id like to hear more from Kittens, Rue The Polywhirl and Rizla.

Also Kryton has not put in apperence today so far.

[Delete Delete Delete]

Based on my thinking I am inclined to back Cerys too. She can't be piled on simply by virtue of picking a different side in the Day 1 row.

So who now?

yes I agree, investgation into Cerys today. would result coming back todays Proxy war. I nwhich case no further information is gathered.

[kittens]

Kittens who do you think are Townies? No sitting on the fence please.

i aint sitting on no fence. think you and gib are baddies and are playing us off against each other. the other two, fuck knows. jim bob maybe because you and gib seemed to just decide he was definitely town with very little evidence. a fourth one. could be anyone at this point. so that would make everyone else town

[Delete Delete Delete]

i aint sitting on no fence. think you and gib are baddies and are playing us off against each other. the other two, fuck knows. jim bob maybe because you and gib seemed to just decide he was definitely town with very little evidence. a fourth one. could be anyone at this point. so that would make everyone else town

Fence sitting there, who do you think are Town, not who do you think are Invaders.

[Cerys]

I think investigating me would be a waste of time, but I'm saying that from the position of being an innocent townie.  You have no reason to believe me - so logically it makes sense to investigate me.  Investigate away.

[kittens]

Fence sitting there, who do you think are Town, not who do you think are Invaders.

well, my friend, you see, there are only two factions, so once i have outlined who i think are the invaders, one may extrapolate from that who i think are town. maybe ask gib to explain it to you.

i mean, come on, that is anything but fence sitting! this is silly.

[Delete Delete Delete]

I want to see your working out why you think all the others are townie,. My point being that by being mafia, there is no need to do any work on explaining why others are Townie. It reeks of trying to accuse without putting yourself in the spot light.

Can you at least post a list of people in the order that you think they are most innocent.

[BlodwynPig]

I want to see your working out why you think all the others are townie,. My point being that by being mafia, there is no need to do any work on explaining why others are Townie. It reeks of trying to accuse without putting yourself in the spot light.

Can you at least post a list of people in the order that you think they are most innocent.

1 hour ban if I see that word again

[Delete Delete Delete]

I'm not sure this proves anything at all, but these are pictures of me trying to work some things out in this game. Yes I use a notebook.

[DrGreggles]

1 hour ban if I see that word again

It's in le fucking thread title!

Excuse my Francais.

[kittens]

I want to see your working out why you think all the others are townie,. My point being that by being mafia, there is no need to do any work on explaining why others are Townie. It reeks of trying to accuse without putting yourself in the spot light.

Can you at least post a list of people in the order that you think they are most innocent.

Fine.

kittens' big list

most likely baddies

del
gib

i've explained this before but the way they are working doesn't make sense unless they are communicating elsewhere. they are constantly backing each other up, but they want us to believe they are doing this without any evidence whatsoever of the other person's innocence? if some unknown quantity was constantly buddying up to me, i would be suspicious that i was being dragged into something, but they have just been like yeah we're mates lads don't worry about it.

i guess maybe baddies

jim bob
drummers
paul calf

purely based on the fact that del and gib have also declared them to be definitely town without much investigation.
i can see that this is one too many baddies so at least 1 of them must be innocent but i couldn't say who.

not enough evidence either way but most likely town as i already have too many baddies listed

cerys - she's asking to be investigated which you would only do if you were town, but she could just be buying herself more time, so can't say
rue - seems to be in a similar position to me, having the fingers of del and gib pointed at him. this is the only evidence i have that he is cool and it could be a double bluff so i do not now

have they even posted?

rizla
kryton

there we go.

I am a townie AMA