5% of us have had it

[Abnormal Palm]

Apparently. That's a stat.

[Sebastian Cobb]

It's got to be more than 5%, I've had it up to here.

[Alberon]

40,000+ dead and only 5% of the population got it?

Bloody hell.

[Jittlebags]

When did it start? Early Feb in UK officialy. Anecdotal earlier cases? Some choir cases from Yorkshire? Mine for one? First weekend in Feb, went off to potato day in Shropshire (that can have it's own thread) just as stuff about first cases on the news were coming in. Bit of a throat clear/cough whilst having a slash, hmm, specks of blood. Felt fine. Drove home, felt shit, spent literally 2 days in bed with fever, with occasional mega coughs. Got up, had shower, was ok. The odd thing was the water I had by the bed literally tasted like shit, really manurey, sulphery. Ditto beer for the rest of the week. Mrs J showed up with it 2 days after me. Two days of fever in bed, felt better, got up for a day, then relapsed with another bout of fever and coughing for about 3 days which I would say were borderline pneumonia. Might have been a flu. Who knows? I'm quite keen to have a go at an antigen test when they're available and not expensive.

[Jittlebags]

I'm reading in a couple of places that it's burnt itself out in places like London. Up here in N Wales, cases are accelerating, but if social distancing has been in place for 2 months here and in London, how can that work? Either way, I think there will be a massive enquiry once the dust (miasma) settles.

[JesusAndYourBush]

I had a loss of my sense of taste and smell the first couple of weeks of January (caught it at a pub in Leeds on Dec 29), no other symptoms except for a slight cold, and I felt really tired on Jan 1 just before the sense of taste/smell went awry.  I'm told that those symptoms aren't limited to Corona but the timing is uncanny.  Maybe a Chinese student had just returned from China having visited relatives over Xmas and he'd stopped off at the pub, and we both touched the same thing?

[Bronzy]

I'm convinced I had it end of October/start of November, I live in an area with a sizeable Chinese Italian community and used public transport daily, all the symptoms matched perfectly and it took me at least 2/3 weeks to recover.

Wouldn't be surprised if it's been around for a while and until China Italy decided when to reveal discovered its existence it was just assumed to be some form of Pneumonia.

EDIT: I could possibly be right after all (Daily Mail, I know) - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8292981/Study-suggests-coronavirus-spread-swiftly-world-late-2019.html

[Dewt]

two posts in a row that are "yeah I might have gone near a Chinaman so who knows"

[BlodwynPig]

you've never more than 2 posts away from a privileged white ur-middle-class

[Bronzy]

two posts in a row that are "yeah I might have gone near a Chinaman so who knows"

Bit sexist, who's to say that I didn't get it off a Chinese an Italian woman?

Like through sex and stuff eh phwoaar

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

40,000+ dead and only 5% of the population got it?

Bloody hell.

On the shaky basis that's true (I think more people have caught it but let's roll with this stat for now) that's near enough 1% of  3,500,000 infected.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52003804

75% of the dead are aged 75 or over.

5.4 million people in the UK are aged 75 or over.

Not that the people who caught it will be spread evenly demographically, but let's say for the purposes of illustration they did do. 5% of 5.4 million is 270,000.

If 270,000 people aged 75 or over have caught it, and 75% of 40,000 people who died of it are aged 75 or over (30,000), that would mean the virus has a mortality rate for that age category of 11.1%.

Codgers getting decimated.

[Dewt]

Bit sexist, who's to say that I didn't get it off a Chinese woman?

Most viruses are perpetrated by men. Perpetrated.

[steveh]

DNA analysis of SARS-COV-2 in the UK shows the majority came via Italy - people on city breaks or ski holidays. Very little came direct from China.

The mass antibody tests have had problem with specificity to SARS-COV-2 leading to false positives and insensitivity to lower levels leading to false negatives so it is too soon to state what percentage have had it with much accuracy.

[Bronzy]

Most viruses are perpetrated by men. Perpetrated.

thats because were brilliant and can do anything

[Bronzy]

DNA analysis of SARS-COV-2 in the UK shows the majority came via Italy - people on city breaks or ski holidays. Very little came direct from China.

The mass antibody tests have had problem with specificity to SARS-COV-2 leading to false positives and insensitivity to lower levels leading to false negatives so it is too soon to state what percentage have had it with much accuracy.

Fixed my post accordingly.

[Dewt]

Yet more antipasta sentiment on this forum

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

DNA analysis of SARS-COV-2 in the UK shows the majority came via Italy - people on city breaks or ski holidays. Very little came direct from China.

The mass antibody tests have had problem with specificity to SARS-COV-2 leading to false positives and insensitivity to lower levels leading to false negatives so it is too soon to state what percentage have had it with much accuracy.

Wasn't it a similar case with Italy where there were more traceable cases from Iran than China?

[Bronzy]

Wasn't it a similar case with Italy where there were more traceable cases from Iran than China?

Graham Linehan considers rewrite

[steveh]

Wasn't it a similar case with Italy where there were more traceable cases from Iran than China?

Using Nextstrain's interface, there doesn't look like much from Iran to Italy. Probably also not the majority into the UK from Italy as I said - the routes are messy, coming early on from Belgium, France, the US and others too. You can see some early transmission direct from China but that mutation seems to have been less successful in establishing itself. There was some research on this that Cambridge University did:

The research revealed three distinct 'variants' of SARS-CoV-2, consisting of clusters of closely related lineages, which they label 'A', 'B' and 'C'.

Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of SARS-CoV-2 to the one discovered in bats – type 'A', the "original human virus genome" – was present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city's predominant virus type.

Versions of 'A' were seen in Chinese individuals, and Americans reported to have lived in Wuhan, and mutated versions of 'A' were found in patients from the USA and Australia.

Wuhan's major virus type, 'B', was prevalent in patients from across East Asia. However, the variant didn't travel much beyond the region without further mutations – implying a 'founder event' in Wuhan, or 'resistance' against this type of coronavirus outside East Asia, say researchers.

The 'C' variant is the major European type, found in early patients from France, Italy, Sweden and England. It is absent from the study's Chinese mainland sample, but seen in Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea.

The new analysis also suggests that one of the earliest introductions of the virus into Italy came via the first documented German infection on 27 January, and that another early Italian infection route was related to a 'Singapore cluster'.

I don't think it's been established where the C variant likely mutated.

The UK has been a big exporter of the virus. Over 40% of cases in Hong Kong came from the UK.

[Danger Man]

This being CaB I assume this thread is about sex.

[Bazooka]

This being CaB I assume this thread is about sex.

Or hair, or hairy sex.

[finnquark]

The UK has been a big exporter of the virus. Over 40% of cases in Hong Kong came from the UK.

Mrs May's much maligned industrial strategy bearing fruit.

[massive bereavement]

Ran naked through a Wuhan wet market last November, rolled about over dead and alive animal bodies whilst biting off a bats' head.

Then went skiing and stayed in an old folks home in February. Had sex with old folks.

Shook Boris Johnson's hand in March.

Went to Cheltenham.

Went to Cheltenham again when the big races were on.

Got lost in Brazil on the way to the USA via Spain.

Sucked off Eddie Large.

Not had it.

[Johnny Yesno]

Ran naked through a Wuhan wet market last November, rolled about over dead and alive animal bodies whilst biting off a bats' head.

Then went skiing and stayed in an old folks home in February. Had sex with old folks.

Shook Boris Johnson's hand in March.

Went to Cheltenham.

Went to Cheltenham again when the big races were on.

Got lost in Brazil on the way to the USA via Spain.

Sucked off Eddie Large.

Not had it.

I see you avoided the Stereophonics gig, though. Very wise. They are unbelievably shit.

[solidified gruel merchant]

I see you avoided the Stereophonics gig, though. Very wise. They are unbelievably shit.

Well Wayne Rooney amd Bob Dylan like them so...

[thenoise]

Most viruses are perpetrated by men. Perpetrated.

Its women who go about spreading it men just die of it and be done with it.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

This being CaB I assume this thread is about sex.

I laughed

[flotemysost]

Its women who go about spreading it men just die of it and be done with it.

My flatmate is genuinely concerned she might have unwittingly taken it to Brazil, as she went there in early February for the carnival and got off with some bloke who was apparently quite ill for a couple of weeks afterwards (but not dead) and she's been fine.

[chveik]

My flatmate is genuinely concerned she might have unwittingly taken it to Brazil, as she went there in early February for the carnival and got off with some bloke who was apparently quite ill for a couple of weeks afterwards (but not dead) and she's been fine.

I assume it'd have spread much faster if there were people infected at the carnival

[Cloud]

My mum is pretty convinced she had it in late 2019

I don't get it, it's sort of good news if we did all get it ages ago but if that's the case why didn't the spike in deaths start back then?