Economic FUCKDOWN

[Bazooka]

Tourism. Or the lack of.

Correct, and little industry outside of fishing.

[Sebastian Cobb]

At the risk of bringing yet more tired WW2 phraseology to the current situation, we are going to see a lot more 'make do and mend' on everything from cars to PCs and phones to clothing.

I do that anyway. Might replace my battered ex-corporate thinkpad with a slightly newer battered ex-corporate thinkpad at some point.

I think the government will push away from make do and mend at all costs though, because buying shit we don't need, especially cars because of the lending, keeps the wheels turning and people in jobs even if it's pointless and devastating to the world long term.

It'll be curious what rona does to cars, both through downturns and attitudes, on the one hand you've got fewer people going to work and that might promote more home working on the other hand public transport will be discouraged for a while with cycling, walking and driving being encouraged if possible, lots of factors some bumping it up some taking away innit?

[Zetetic]

I do that anyway. Might replace my battered ex-corporate thinkpad with a slightly newer battered ex-corporate thinkpad at some point.

Along similar lines, but with less street cred, I just upgraded my 2009 MacBook Pro (which I'd literally used to destruction over the course of decade, with the hinge proving stronger than the screen frame) to a 2011 MacBook Pro (which it looks like someone has thrown down some stairs but seems to work okay).

[Zetetic]

The furlough etc. figures are interesting. Do we have an unemployment or JSA figures post-Mar yet?

[Sebastian Cobb]

Along similar lines, but with less street cred, I just upgraded my 2009 MacBook Pro (which I'd literally used to destruction over the course of decade, with the hinge proving stronger than the screen frame) to a 2011 MacBook Pro (which it looks like someone has thrown down some stairs but seems to work okay).

They're solid machines. Last I heard you can get 2009 models refurbed for about £300 although I don't think you can install newer versions of OSX these days. Given I use Debian at work through choice, a thinkpad with it at home is a pretty frugal option.

I also doubled the ram with some sticks I got for £15 out of cex.

[Zetetic]

I got my 2011 for £100 (but had to spend another £100 replacing the battery).

Something a gamble on eBay, given the dents in bits of it, that they'd got the model slightly wrong (but provided the serial number?) and general lack of info. Buying the relevant just the case-bits for my old one would've cost me £60 or so though, so it seemed worth trying.

It feels like a substantial upgrade! (But you're right - locked on older version of OS X).

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Why is it mostly near the coast?

A cursory read of the report will help.

[bgmnts]

I can't read.

I was just surprised to see the south east wales area so affected.

[Zetetic]

Well, it's a guess based on which sectors are most prominent in those areas.

Interestingly the furlough figures plus the change in UC claims from February to April aren't closely following that guess as far I can tell, but I've not really got to grips with it and I suspect we need more unemployment-ish data to know where the impact is falling.

[Ray Travez]

It'll be curious what rona does to cars, both through downturns and attitudes, on the one hand you've got fewer people going to work and that might promote more home working on the other hand public transport will be discouraged for a while with cycling, walking and driving being encouraged if possible, lots of factors some bumping it up some taking away innit?

My guess- demand falls, prices go up.

The velocity of money has fallen off a cliff- it takes time for spending to return to previous levels. Add to this the factor of people not wanting to go out and buy stuff- this is not a normal recovery. In addition, supply chain shocks will increase the price of components. I'd guess that people wanting to avoid public transport will boost the second-hand car market, but less so the new one. Finally, due to a loss of finances for various reasons, people are less likely to make the big purchases. People are holding on to cash due to uncertainty and anxiety about the direction of the economy. You're seeing the same slowdown in the housing market. This is leading to prices falling, but I think it will go the other way in cars- not certain though.

The general trend in the medium term may well be stagflation- a fall in the price of assets, but a rise of the price of essentials like food.

Car manufacturers will struggle, apart from those making high-end models for a super-rich market.

My guesses :)

[Zetetic]

Barely any real shift in house prices though, but perhaps that'll change in the next 6 months.

[Ray Travez]

Yes, its marginal so far. I think a major downturn has started though. The main difference is the fall in demand.

[MojoJojo]

Barely any real shift in house prices though, but perhaps that'll change in the next 6 months.

Since Estate Agents were closed in March, and are still in the process of reopening, I don't think there are any house sales to base that on.

[Zetetic]

Housing market is still shut in Scotland and Wales, I believe, in fact.

But in England, they have been having sales go through - but I grant many of these were agreed pre-COVID-19.

[Sebastian Cobb]

Yeah a mate got an offer accepted on a pad.

I've got a decent amount for a deposit (although worth less than it was because half of it are in shares) and thought now might be a good time to pull my finger out my arse but I imagine people will be hanging on to stuff. Not that I'm really that eager to own property. Would rather a more stable rent tbh.

I'd have thought the government would crack on with QE and lending initiatives to keep the wheels of the motor industry and housing bubble greased though.

[Harry Badger]

Yes, its marginal so far. I think a major downturn has started though. The main difference is the fall in demand.

Yep. As has been pointed out, you can't have a second haircut to make up for the one you didn't have in lockdown (I realise this is a redundant example on this forum) and people are just in general going to be either very conservative about their discretionary spending, or they're going to be out of work and unable to buy anything beyond the basics and probably not them either.

The other elephant in the room is that we are on the verge of maxing out this planet's natural resources which have been the driving force of economic growth. All those trillions printed by central banks is predicated on the idea that the economy will start growing again and at least some of it will be paid back. There's probably enough oil in the ground for one last blow-out but, again, this will only happen if there is consumer confidence.

I am happy to be corrected on anything I've written. I'm not an economist, I'm just a very pessimistic boy.

[Sheffield Wednesday]

So what if the economy goes to shit?

What does that even mean?

There's plenty to go around, we just gotta peel the flesh off some billionaires and share out all their shit

[Ray Travez]

I am happy to be corrected on anything I've written. I'm not an economist, I'm just a very pessimistic boy.

I'm happy to have found a friend. I'm incredibly pessimistic about the outcome of all of this.

[Head Gardener]

sad to read Wicksteed Park in Kettering has gone into administration, I've been visiting it since I was nipper

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-53058218

[Huxleys Babkins]

Quite "enjoyed" the BBC tying itself up in knots this morning, attempting to not describe the 612,000 people who've lost their jobs as "612,000 people who've lost their jobs".

They first settled on "Number of workers on payroll drops by over 600,000", but have now edited their headline to say "More than 600,000 UK workers lose their jobs amid lockdown". They still don't give the exact figure anywhere in the article.

The difference between that and Sky's more accurate article is night and day.

[BlodwynPig]

More than 600,000

what, 25 million? crikey

[Zetetic]

1.6 million extra on (joblessness-related, I believe) Universal Credit since March.

[Kelvin]

Job is on a vent. Getting the heave ho next Friday.

Maybe I'll be a zoo keeper next.

[Pink Gregory]

Aw mate.

[bgmnts]

1.6 million extra on (joblessness-related, I believe) Universal Credit since March.

These people should fuck off back to where they came from; employment.

[Blinder Data]

Job is on a vent. Getting the heave ho next Friday.

Maybe I'll be a zoo keeper next.

Oh mate. I'm very sorry to hear that. Best of luck in the fuckdown.

--

I'm on the verge of beginning the tortuous process of buying a house in Scotland during a pandemic. Deposit requirements for mortgages have certainly gone up since the 'rona, 15% is the standard it seems. God knows how viewings are going to be managed safely - they're probably best off handing out hazmat suits at the front door...

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Job is on a vent. Getting the heave ho next Friday.

Maybe I'll be a zoo keeper next.

Sorry about that Kelvin. A shitty time to get let go (not that there ever was a good time)

[Kelvin]

Unfortunately, I'd only started at this job in December last year, and I was still in a training program when lockdown started, so it was inevitable I'd be first out the door if the business took a hit. Especially as it's only a small company with a handful of people in the office.

Didn't like the job anyway, but it's hardly the best time to find something else.

[Funcrusher]

Yep. As has been pointed out, you can't have a second haircut to make up for the one you didn't have in lockdown (I realise this is a redundant example on this forum) and people are just in general going to be either very conservative about their discretionary spending, or they're going to be out of work and unable to buy anything beyond the basics and probably not them either.

The other elephant in the room is that we are on the verge of maxing out this planet's natural resources which have been the driving force of economic growth. All those trillions printed by central banks is predicated on the idea that the economy will start growing again and at least some of it will be paid back. There's probably enough oil in the ground for one last blow-out but, again, this will only happen if there is consumer confidence.

I am happy to be corrected on anything I've written. I'm not an economist, I'm just a very pessimistic boy.

I saw you bigging up Tim Watkins in a previous post. If his take on the last few decades and what's to come is right, and it sounds highly plausible, then nothing else really matters. I mostly can't face reading him lately.

[sirhenry]

Job is on a vent. Getting the heave ho next Friday.

Maybe I'll be a zoo keeper next.

You should get back into the accidental prostitute-killing business; you were really good at that.
And I'd be happy to provide a reference to that effect.