Lockdown is more deadly than the virus [split topic]

[TheReturnOfTheSonOfTPPH]

Have you tried "Sweden v UK Covid curve"? Go on, take a stab.

[Funcrusher]

Have you tried "Sweden v UK Covid curve"? Go on, take a stab.

Enlighten us as to what this means.

[BlodwynPig]

Im seeing higher deaths, higher cases and higher deaths per million than sweden. Thats without accounting for unreported/Unconfirmed cases

[BlodwynPig]

Im seeing a government scandal, a rogue state, a stir crazy nation, a descent into rabid nationalism and anti-communism, and a wind up merchant with a ulterior motive

[Barry Admin]

Have you tried "Sweden v UK Covid curve"? Go on, take a stab.

Can you explain New Zealand?

[QDRPHNC]

The damaged generation of children stripped of an opportunity to socialise, play, learn & grow together.

My kid's been having a great time! No school for months and playing every day with his friends on Fortnite.

BUT I SUPPOSE WE'LL HAVE TO COUNT THE BODIES LATER

[TheReturnOfTheSonOfTPPH]

Shall we do a trial?

Should I share your post with families of people from all age groups and ethnicities that have died gasping for air?

"Puff Man says its "basically harmless", get thee down the vomitorium and raise a gut to England"

Yup. Basically harmless if you're not over 70 and you're in reasonable health. If you're U65 you're more likely to die travelling to work. If you're U40 you're more likely to be murdered. If you're a child you're more likely to be hit by lightning.
For the Nth time - for healthy adults U60 it's as dangerous as being alive for 2-3 weeks. For children is as dangerous as being alive for a day or two. It's that safe.

[Dex Sawash]

Puffy mentions the achoos

[TheReturnOfTheSonOfTPPH]

My kid's been having a great time! No school for months and playing every day with his friends on Fortnite.

BUT I SUPPOSE WE'LL HAVE TO COUNT THE BODIES LATER

Child suicide might amuse you. Well done. Great parenting though. Swings & roundabouts eh.

[Old Nehamkin]

When I was a kid if you told me I was getting a couple of months off school leading into the summer holidays my first response would definitely be to kill myself.

[Barry Admin]

New Zealand?

[shiftwork2]

Tens of thousands of cancer patients keen to know why diagnosis and treatment was delayed.

Any thoughts?

[TheReturnOfTheSonOfTPPH]

Im seeing higher deaths, higher cases and higher deaths per million than sweden. Thats without accounting for unreported/Unconfirmed cases

Cases don't matter, it's basically harmless remember.

And no. Even according to WHO Sweden has 5280 "deaths with" Covid from a population of 10.3 million. The UK has 43 414 "deaths with" Covid from a population of 69 million.

So despite having <7x the population, the UK >7x the number of deaths.

Almost 70% of Swedish deaths are among the over 80s. The ave male expectancy is 81. Female is 85.
74% of Swedish deaths are in care homes or those receiving care in their own homes.

70-79 years - 22% of Swedish deaths
80-89 year - 41% of Swedish deaths
90+ - 26% of Swedish deaths.

A stunning 89% of Swedish deaths "with Covid" are over 70.

People U50 account for 1.2% of deaths.

Virtually all these are people with pre-existing health conditions.

No teenagers have died. Zero. One child has died.

The figures are little different though slightly better.

But start to factor in the 638000 missed cancer referrals in the UK, along with all the other catastrophe effects of lockdown, and it's clear whose policy has worked best. Clue: not ours.

[TheReturnOfTheSonOfTPPH]

Double post, sorry.

Mr Admin - New Zealand is in the Southern Hemisphere so not suitable for any direct comparison with the northern curve. I'm aware of its extreme measures, sparse population and low death toll. Decades of tight borders certainly haven't done it any harm. Beyond that, my knowledge of the potential implications of its approach is essentially nil.

[TheReturnOfTheSonOfTPPH]

Tens of thousands of cancer patients keen to know why diagnosis and treatment was delayed.

Any thoughts?

Two fucking million. And that was (almost) 4 weeks ago. Two fucking million eh bedwetters.
https://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2020/06/01/impact-of-coronavirus-on-cancer-services-revealed-over-2-million-people-waiting-for-screening-tests-and-treatments/

[TheReturnOfTheSonOfTPPH]

Even the bloody Guardian covered it https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/11/cancer-patients-missed-out-on-tests-during-uk-coronavirus-lockdown

All this to save practically no one who wouldn't have been dead soon anyway. Terrorising vulnerable people into being too scared to seek help. Or diverting attention to insane over provision for cases that never arrived. It's beyond doubt the fear porn & the inhuman lockdown will kill more than the virus ever could have. Because for most of us it's harmless. Cancer on the other hand...

[TheReturnOfTheSonOfTPPH]

When I was a kid if you told me I was getting a couple of months off school leading into the summer holidays my first response would definitely be to kill myself.

You're gorgeous. You should be. You represent all children.

[Urinal Cake]

Regarding public health the issue isn't about the Covid-19 deaths. It's about the 10% or so of patients that require ICU treatment etc that would destroy the healthcare system. If you were willing to let them suffer at home (though not necessarily die)  then it would be okay to end the lock down.

[TheReturnOfTheSonOfTPPH]

We built, was it 7 Nightingale hospitals? The 4000 bed London flagship treated 54 patients. It closed weeks ago. We have insane over capacity. We knew this in April. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/london-nhs-nightingale-hospital-placed-on-standby

[Urinal Cake]

That's the UK experience. However what we've seen in South Korea, Australia etc is that it's a rolling epidemic so capacity should be more than normal.

[bgmnts]

We built, was it 7 Nightingale hospitals? The 4000 bed London flagship treated 54 patients. It closed weeks ago. We have insane over capacity. We knew this in April. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/london-nhs-nightingale-hospital-placed-on-standby

Its like, having an abysmal govt that has severely underfunded the health system with the goal to privatise it and has no concern for its citizens, would mishandle a public health crisis.

Genuinely can't believe it.

[TheReturnOfTheSonOfTPPH]

That's the UK experience. However what we've seen in South Korea, Australia etc is that it's a rolling epidemic so capacity should be more than normal.

The tropical curve isn't the same. The Southern Hemisphere curve is completely different, a slower rise, a long, low flat steady top. Rather than the rapid almost vertical climb to a  peak, sharp decline and long tail of the northern hemisphere curve. We can only realistically compare countries of similar latitudes.

EDIT - Beyond that, we've all been exposed. The fact millions of people milling around London for a month prior to lockdown and a million or more continuing to do so after, with virtually no casualties, while Doris, who'd not left a care home in years and mixed with 3 carers and a nurse in the past 2 months got it bad, well, it's clearly not about exposure. It's entirely about vulnerability. Protect the vulnerable, sure. But end our lives for months because there's a minute chance a few people might get a bit ill? Absolutely not.

[tao of wub]

Because for most of us it's harmless. Cancer on the other hand...

Bit of a long rant here, but...

You seem very sure of yourself.  Are you Gove?  Sick of experts so you have got all the answers yourself? 

The worlds medical experts, be they virologists, medical statisticians, immunologists or whatever would be the first to say that they don't have all the facts on SARS-COV-2.  The picture is slowly getting teased out.

It is not as simple as looking at the charts on Johns Hopkins and declaring that you have cracked it.  For a start the testing and reporting is wildly different all around the world, so the data needs a lot of work to yield its secrets.  Its not data from a computer game, it is real world messy data, where people lie and decide not to bother testing or test in different ways etc..

There is a lot the world does know about viral infections, much of it learnt at huge expense from military programs into biological agents.  Men and women like Ken Alibek and his colleagues in military and civilian life have studied for lifetimes.

Some things seem fairly obvious, like trying to avoid coughing on each other etc is going to help control  the spread of infection.   

A bit like how it became more and more obvious that cigarettes was not the best thing for your health.  Obvious.  Proving the health risks and getting all the science done took a really long time.

In 1912 it was proposed that tobacco smoke might be to blame for the rise in lung tissue tumours, but it wasn't until the mid 1950s and a LOT of work that the proof looked absolutely irrefutable.  It is a very interesting story.

https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/21/2/87

You are clearly passionate in your views and you probably will not regard my post, but, my point is that things are often more complex than they seem. 

As well as the differences between peoples immune systems and other factors which control their response to ANY infection there are also different strains with differing virulence.  Your statements on the inconsequential nature of covid19 for various age groups are simply not true based on what we HAVE seen.

Roger Gracie, 38 years old and a world champion jiu jitsu athlete states it kicked his arse essentially, that is one case, but there are endless examples.

To be frank you remind me of a guy who decided that ALL disease is down to vitamin D deficiency and that because he had read 20 thousand medical papers he was now the worlds first and foremost expert in all areas of disease and the 'dumb' medical experts were too stuck in their ways to see the truth.  Knowledge and being and expert is more than just reading a few things.

Anyway, perhaps you can start worrying about the multi million deaths caused by tobacco every year, many from side smoke?  With your energy I'm sure you can help reduce cancer rates by cancelling smoking?  You would be doing the world a solid honestly.

From the solidly Tory Telegraph, how our govt decided they couldn't be arsed about pandemics...blood on their hands I would say..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/

The results were that we were woefully unprepared.  They chose to ignore it, presumably so they could carry on spaffing cash on legal fees relating to their pet projects, which have run into the billions of pounds.

[tao of wub]

Protect the vulnerable, sure. But end our lives for months because there's a minute chance a few people might get a bit ill?

All those doctors who have died from exposure must have been vulnerable persons by your logic.

What do you actually KNOW about all this based on actual peer reviewed science rather than just what you reckon makes sense?  How much virology have you studied?  Immunology?  Epigenetics?

Or is that all a load of tosh to you?  Do you take a similarly dismissive view to the engineering that makes your car or phone work.  I mean its just a bit of special sand and some metal and plastic, nothing too difficult surely..

You seem like you would enjoy being a part of the flat earth movement too.  Are you a flat earther?  You can tell us..Don't be shy.

[Urinal Cake]

I think a lot of governments looked at South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, China etc. saw their initial success and decided to copy them ( sort of). Hindsight is great but there was so much FUD that it was reasonable for governments to look and copy at initial successes.

[Sebastian Cobb]

Wish our government copied more competent governments in peacetime.

[Johnny Yesno]

Ignore him.

[Noodle Lizard]

My kid's been having a great time! No school for months and playing every day with his friends on Fortnite.

BUT I SUPPOSE WE'LL HAVE TO COUNT THE BODIES LATER

Just on this point - I've got an 8-year-old in the house who, while not on the brink of suicide, is certainly not happy about it. Baseball's his favourite thing and obviously that was cancelled for the summer, most of his favourite places to go are closed and he wasn't able to physically interact with other kids his age for the best part of three months. He's also not old enough to have his own means of communicating with them, so he has to rely on us and the other kids' parents to even jump on a FaceTime. He's got his Minecraft and The Simpsons or whatever, but being stuck at home all day with parents still trying to work whilst also having to take care of a one-year-old isn't very fun at that age.

Then you've got to factor in kids who are in abusive households, or perhaps households that became abusive as a result of being locked down together and all the stresses that brings. Not to mention we're going to have a generation of kids who are about 6 months behind academically. I'm sure some parents had the time and energy to really focus on homeschooling, but the majority didn't and that's what'll be reflected when they go back to school.

There's no need to hyperbolise, of course, but it's not as simple as saying "they're all fine!"
I don't agree with a fair amount of the OP's claims, or the way he's going about making them, but there's very little good about all of this for a lot of people.

[solidified gruel merchant]

Just on this point - I've got an 8-year-old in the house who, while not on the brink of suicide, is certainly not happy about it. Baseball's his favourite thing and obviously that was cancelled for the summer, most of his favourite places to go are closed and he wasn't able to physically interact with other kids his age for the best part of three months. He's also not old enough to have his own means of communicating with them, so he has to rely on us and the other kids' parents to even jump on a FaceTime. He's got his Minecraft and The Simpsons or whatever, but being stuck at home all day with parents still trying to work whilst also having to take care of a one-year-old isn't very fun at that age.

Then you've got to factor in kids who are in abusive households, or perhaps households that became abusive as a result of being locked down together and all the stresses that brings. Not to mention we're going to have a generation of kids who are about 6 months behind academically. I'm sure some parents had the time and energy to really focus on homeschooling, but the majority didn't and that's what'll be reflected when they go back to school.

There's no need to hyperbolise, of course, but it's not as simple as saying "they're all fine!"
I don't agree with a fair amount of the OP's claims, or the way he's going about making them, but there's very little good about all of this for a lot of people.

Great post. I was going to say something similar about my 6 year old son. While on the face of it he seems 'ok', his behaviour has been very difficult the further along this has gone. It's a worrying age for such disruption, and while me and his mum have gone to great lengths to explain the situation and understand his reactions, we are obviously concerned about what he is making of it all and what future problems could manifest.
Also cases of domestic abuse have, as you say, shot up. Some kids dread the weekend, imagine what this has done to them?

[TheReturnOfTheSonOfTPPH]

All those doctors who have died from exposure must have been vulnerable persons by your logic.

Yup. The NHS death toll, that got the veggies foaming (Piers Morgan almost exploded with literal mindless rage) was one of funniest non-stories from the fear crazed month of April.

In the last 'pre-Covid' (although whether it was pre Covid, well. They've found it Milan sewage from 18 December, suggesting it had a significant presence in the community in late November) quarter, there were 120000 deaths in the UK.

1.4 milion people work in the NHS. 2% of the entire population. Age adjust it how you like. We would expect hundreds of "NHS deaths" per month. Deaths from all causes are up.

Your previous post and the remainder of the one I've quoted have nothing whatsoever to do with Covid.

If you want to look at purely what we do know, look at the stats. The median death age is 81. Eighty one. Do you know what UK expectancy is?

The danger to the U65s is anything from a day or two (for children) to 3 weeks (folks in their 50s) of being alive.

I note you offer no counter data. (There is no counter data, it's all data. But still.)