10,000,000 / 500,000 [split topic]

[BlodwynPig]

[shiftwork2]

We did it!

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Ok so this means it has to be debated in parliament right

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

UK 7 day average of new cases has dropped below the 7 day average taken on March 25, the week lockdown took effect.

Taken a ridiculously long time to happen thanks to the delay in action that allowed the virus to spread so widely and thus longer to recover from.

While it might be tempting to single out members of the public for lapses in their own behaviour, I think overall a comfortable majority have been conscious of the dangers and adhered to the rules or simply acted carefully and reasonably regardless of the rules - they are the ones who should be applauded for getting us to this milestone.

[olliebean]

UK 7 day average of new cases has dropped below the 7 day average taken on March 25, the week lockdown took effect.

That happened on 3 June, according to the government's figures at https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases. However note that they appear to be calculating the 7-day average differently from the universally accepted method of calculating a moving average. They're calculating the average for a particular day using the figures from 3 days before to 3 days after, rather than the figures from 6 days before up to that day. Meaning their 7-day averages are always 3 days out of date, and not representative - as they should be - of the situation up to that point in time.

To get the true 7-day moving average from the government's chart, you need to look at the day 3 days before the one you want, and doing that, the 7-day moving average has indeed only just dropped below that on the 25 March.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

I was going from Worldometers data there. Either way, a good moment.

Likewise, even if it is down to the way data is collected, 36 deaths added today is the 2nd lowest since March 25th.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105

Graph ATTACK

[BlodwynPig]

I was going from Worldometers data there. Either way, a good moment.

Likewise, even if it is down to the way data is collected, 36 deaths added today is the 2nd lowest since March 25th.

Your tone is always too sprightly. I can't take any comfort from this. Please draw a cowl over future postings.

[chveik]

I was going from Worldometers data there. Either way, a good moment.

Likewise, even if it is down to the way data is collected, 36 deaths added today is the 2nd lowest since March 25th.

you can't really draw conclusions from sundays' numbers.

[NoSleep]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105

Graph ATTACK

Click on "death rate" and UK is 4th highest in the world with only 3 smaller countries ahead. Very bad show.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

you can't really draw conclusions from sundays' numbers.

I think I already caveated that. They are only observations, anyway, which is a distinction. You can compare this with the other Sundays where that was the case and also compare them with all other days. It's the second fewest recorded since lockdown. Better observations can be drawn from the longer term trends, which in this case happen to align in that the 7 day rolling average is now lower than the week lockdown took effect.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Click on "death rate" and UK is 4th highest in the world with only 3 smaller countries ahead. Very bad show.

Yep I have been morbidly keeping track of that on worldometers too. A colossal embarrassment.

USA still just clinching it for worst handled for me though Clive. NY and NJ (combined pop. 27m) nearly 3 times as bad as the UK for deaths per million and for causing a 2nd major outbreak because the place is run and inhabited by adult babies.

[sirhenry]

From the BBC:

This is not a second wave of infections, rather a resurgence of the disease that had shown signs of being brought under control.

FUCK OFF!
Do they not know what 'resurgence' means? It literally means 'another wave', re-surge. What is it with everyone arguing against the use of the phrase 'second wave'? It may mean something slightly different in certain technical areas, but to everybody but epidemiologists it means that the numbers are rising again, which is what is happening in various states in the US and elsewhere.

No-one is actually saying it but it looks as if they are trying to define 'second wave' as needing the numbers to drop to zero between 'waves'. But that is not how waves work - the sea doesn't dry up between waves so why should virus cases? So when they try to say that the numbers going back up again isn't a second wave we just end up not believing yet another source of information and the discussion becomes even more polarised...

And why are they doing it? Is there a clause somewhere that says that if there is a second wave in your country then you have to pay WHO 50% of your GDP or something?

As the saying goes 'They're your words but they're my ears.'

[BlodwynPig]

BBC right at the bottom now.

I hate them all. Those grey middle aged men who either try and act 'down with da kidz' but look like actors rejected for the part of Paedophile No. 2 in some seedy 80s movie (Gompertz, Cellan-Jones) or are obvious failed spies kicked out of MI5 to pursue nanny-state journalism but fail at that with their glib, patronising tone making everyone switch off (Urban, Beale).

Peinaar jumped ship (pushed?) and now will do his best Chris Evans in treacle factory parody on Times Radio. Kuenssberg has been M.I.A. in a cocaine maze for weeks. Bruce, Raworth and Husain look like they've just partaken in a glum lesbian orgy and Myrie has been secretly wishing he had been the guy who thought he was being interviewed live on air a few years ago.

To be a fly on the wall in that organisation. Megalomaniacs from top to filing cabinet bottom.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

I think the wave thing is more referring to the much pawed over case of Spanish Flu where the infamous 2nd wave did by far the most damage.

People are annoyed any rise in cases seems to be characterised as it coming around again in one final mythical swell to finish people off when in fact there are regional and local outbreaks, and very large countries, especially ones that tried to lock down the virus infections dipped who have a stranger looking curve... as it had distributed erratically huge areas simply hadn't been hit by it.

Increase and decrease are fine enough words tbh and the geography of these increases pretty much key to controlling it.

[sirhenry]

So more like waves reaching up more or less of a beach, at different heights at different places and all varying over time, with each wave being triggered by lowering levels of lockdown? That's how I've always seen it and assumed was the general understanding, which is why politicians and reporters denying it seemed really bizarre.

In contrast, the Spanish Flu version was more like a tsunami after the first cycle[nb]Though the tsunami metaphor would need a dramatic drop in all illness shortly before to work properly, obviously[/nb].

[Zetetic]

Yeah, I think the idea that the general public understood it in the sense of flu seasonality is a bit weird.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

So more like waves reaching up more or less of a beach, at different heights at different places and all varying over time, with each wave being triggered by lowering levels of lockdown? That's how I've always seen it and assumed was the general understanding, which is why politicians and reporters denying it seemed really bizarre.

In contrast, the Spanish Flu version was more like a tsunami after the first cycle[nb]Though the tsunami metaphor would need a dramatic drop in all illness shortly before to work properly, obviously[/nb].

From what I gather people have taken Spanish Flu as being a pandemic model and hung on every upward curve as being the armageddon one. The general psychology behind that has been to justify people's caution, in some cases overbearing moralising and in some cases pure scaremongering*. It's not beyond reckoning to fathom why that could become seriously annoying over the next 12-18 months**.


_{*Remember all those people who weirdly seemed to really want this virus to kill children and posted about every single child death like it was the end times
**Yes I agree all them deaths are pretty annoying too}

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

I thought today's Europe stats were fairly positive/relieving:

From those who have reported (which is nearly all countries now):

153 deaths across the whole of Europe (excl. Russia - not sure why a death in Vladivostok is European)
5,000 new cases across the whole of Europe (again excl. Russia)

Not yet ready yet to greenlight the Autumn 2020 Utretcht Gerontophilia Festival, but got to take the good news where it exist.

[Uncle TechTip]

I noticed that Sweden is now 5th in number of cases per head, showing that their lack of lockdown did have an effect in the end. It's fair to say, at every turn the science has been proved right, and now we have some interesting control data in US and Sweden to back that up.

[BlodwynPig]

I thought today's Europe stats were fairly positive/relieving:

From those who have reported (which is nearly all countries now):

153 deaths across the whole of Europe (excl. Russia - not sure why a death in Vladivostok is European)
5,000 new cases across the whole of Europe (again excl. Russia)

Not yet ready yet to greenlight the Autumn 2020 Utretcht Gerontophilia Festival, but got to take the good news where it exist.

Monday have been reporting low for a few weeks. It'll be back up significantly tomorrow and later in the week

[NoSleep]

I noticed that Sweden is now 5th in number of cases per head, showing that their lack of lockdown did have an effect in the end. It's fair to say, at every turn the science has been proved right, and now we have some interesting control data in US and Sweden to back that up.

Sweden are 7th in the world (with a death rate of 53.3/100,000 total population), whilst the UK is 5th (64.9/100,000):

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Ah, which data are you looking at UncleTechtip? In terms of cases per million Sweden are 18th.

Deaths per million they are 7th.

[NoSleep]

Yes, the actual Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 of total population. That chart is from the BBC page you linked yesterday.

EDIT: previous post edited to include the name of the person addressed (not me).

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Monday have been reporting low for a few weeks. It'll be back up significantly tomorrow and later in the week

Yes, that's been the trend throughout. Compare it with any previous Monday, is what I'm asking. And we can reconvene tomorrow and compare that one with previous Tuesday's data. How do you think it will go?

[Zetetic]

Testing continues to determine "case" numbers to a great extent. Particularly now that we're picking up hundreds at a time in the process of catching and containing single workplace outbreaks.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Yes, the actual Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 of total population. That chart is from the BBC page you linked yesterday.

I was addressing UncleTechtip to ask where his data was from. I'm aware what the chart is from as I remember reading it, and I'm aware of the deaths/per as have kept abreast of it + it's quoted in my own post.

[MrMrs]

Monday have been reporting low for a few weeks. It'll be back up significantly tomorrow and later in the week

Nope.

[Uncle TechTip]

Yeah cases. Data from worldometer. I looked back, i did say cases. Cases.

[BlodwynPig]

Nope.

ok, God, care to elaborate or do you think the British Government have earned out trust? Leicester in lockdown, mass gatherings, there will be an uptick unless you think it's gone on its summer holidays.