Author Topic: How are we doing at this point?  (Read 927 times)

How are we doing at this point?
« on: July 27, 2020, 08:25:41 AM »
I recently had a chat with some mates where one raised the question 'is this not a major problem any more?' He's no conspiracy guy or minimiser, he knows someone who was seriously affected by it, he's intelligent and empathetic. He's just feeling like we're through the worst of it so why the masks at this point and why the sudden Spain quarantine?

It prompted me to take a step back, try to see if it through the eyes of someone who only follows the headlines and reevaluate our current position.

Having thought about it, my conclusion is that it remains a major problem but one which we currently have under control from a public health perspective.

This is predominantly down to adherence to social distancing, as well as the number of baked in measures in shops, restaurants, etc. We've been lucky to have an OK summer and so outdoor socialising has been much easier. As much as I/we (here) might sometimes focus on the minority who want to take a libertarian stance, and on the abysmal strategy and communication by the government, enough people are following measures to enough of an extent to keep this under control at this point.

Beyond that, less stress on health services and better understanding of treatment has led to a drop in the death rates. Excess deaths are also currently and consistently lower than average. I appreciate that's a very broad statement, but just trying to summarise.

So why is it still a major problem?

As the weather gets worse and people are forced/inclined to socialise more indoors, as social distancing fatigue may affect adherence, more non-Covid illness arises and needs to be treated in hospital adding stress to those systems as well as increasing Covid transmission risk. Schools will seemingly go back in full no matter what. It is likely to hit again in early winter because we can't control certain measures as successfully even if we try harder. And then hopefully by the spring, it will improve again as we're able to socially distance better and with whatever further improvements we hope have been made from a medical/pharmaceutical perspective.

Anyone care to challenge that?


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Re: How are we doing at this point?
« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2020, 08:53:55 AM »
It is good to see deaths continuing to fall in the UK. Even through the winter I don't think it will go back to the sort of daily figures we had in April without something happening outside our power to control. That's good and should help us plan.

Yet I'm concerned about public transport, group events etc and pressure to return to working in the office even when there's no actual need in certain cases. I'm concerned about government messages which are aimed at businesses over public health.

Looks like air travel is majorly fucked given the quarantine requirements threshold and how quickly things can change. The services will probably end up nationalised at this rate.

Re: How are we doing at this point?
« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2020, 12:36:32 PM »
I can't help but wonder what the government message (and public response to) the traditional going "home" for Christmas is going to be. Lots more transition to elderly relatives?

thenoise

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Re: How are we doing at this point?
« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2020, 02:50:38 PM »
I can't help but wonder what the government message (and public response to) the traditional going "home" for Christmas is going to be. Lots more transition to elderly relatives?

Unfortunately Boris has announced it'll be over by Christmas,and he isn't very good at admitting when he has been proved wrong.

Fambo Number Mive

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Re: How are we doing at this point?
« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2020, 03:04:46 PM »
I'd agree with you, Chedney, although I do wonder what the effect of having opened gyms a couple of days ago will be. I still think we opened too much up at once in July and if there is a second spike it'll be hard to tell what caused it (gyms? tattoo parlours? nail bars? or all of them?).

The media seem to be pushing the narrative that several hundred new cases per day is ok while being quick to point out what is going wrong in other countries. The Times publishing an anti-mask column by Camilla Long was a particular low point. Our government continue to get away with their venal handling of coronavirus with Johnson's base mainly concerned about a No Deal Brexit, paying less tax and "owning the libs".

With more and more people going back to work, if face mask wearing on public transport continues to be ignored by some passengers we could see a second spike in September/October. It's difficult as some people are exempt but I suspect some people just don't want to wear a mask. I don't really know what can be done.

It feels like most people are ignoring social distancing and there is no message from the government reminding people to socially distance. The government seem to be pointing the finger at obesity (why not smoking as well?) to distract from their own responsibly. I'm relieved we haven't seen a second spike so far, I think the return of audiences at sporting events will be an issue and I don't see why the government want to do so so early.

I really hope we don't need to lockdown again in winter but I think we will. Perhaps doing more to promote mask wearing (get some celebrities involved?) would help.

Re: How are we doing at this point?
« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2020, 05:10:49 PM »
It feels like most people are ignoring social distancing and there is no message from the government reminding people to socially distance.

It's not been put out in precisely these terms, but the messaging from the government seems to have implied "you don't need to socially distance any more as long as you're wearing a mask."

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Re: How are we doing at this point?
« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2020, 11:30:05 PM »
Thinking of getting Covids so I don’t have to read any more of Honkey’s threads on it.

Re: How are we doing at this point?
« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2020, 11:32:49 PM »
I feel like they've already conceded there will be a second lockdown, right now is just trying to get people to start spending money again before everything falls apart again.

Re: How are we doing at this point?
« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2020, 09:17:22 AM »
Thinking of getting Covids so I don’t have to read any more of Honkey’s threads on it.

I'm afraid the science is still out on whether or not that grants you immunity from the threads.

Zetetic

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Re: How are we doing at this point?
« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2020, 09:42:55 AM »
Flu, flu vaccination.

"Elective" care needs to restart in earnest. Cancer treatment, and indeed referrals for treatment, still massively depressed for example, and we're heading into substantial stage shift territory which will be a bugger.

(Referrals for diagnosis are massively variable, depending on suspected site, which creates other issues.)

Zetetic

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Re: How are we doing at this point?
« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2020, 09:45:05 AM »
Excess deaths should pretty much always be negative compared to "average" (if you mean the last five years) of course, barring pandemics. Even more so if you're keeping people away from dangerous work etc.

Sebastian Cobb

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Re: How are we doing at this point?
« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2020, 10:59:40 AM »
I can't help but wonder what the government message (and public response to) the traditional going "home" for Christmas is going to be. Lots more transition to elderly relatives?

I'm already laying the groundwork so I don't have to get a train half-way down the country, it's a fucking ballache involving trains so packed you can't get to your seat and no space for bags when there isn't disease in the air.

Re: How are we doing at this point?
« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2020, 12:25:55 PM »
I'm already laying the groundwork so I don't have to get a train half-way down the country, it's a fucking ballache involving trains so packed you can't get to your seat and no space for bags when there isn't disease in the air.

How have you done that, exactly? And how far do you need to travel, roughly?

Re: How are we doing at this point?
« Reply #13 on: July 28, 2020, 01:15:26 PM »
I feel like they've already conceded there will be a second lockdown, right now is just trying to get people to start spending money again before everything falls apart again.

Oh yes, definitely. I keep hearing Johnson talking about preparing for a second wave; not a sausage about trying to prevent one.

Sebastian Cobb

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Re: How are we doing at this point?
« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2020, 02:46:45 PM »
How have you done that, exactly? And how far do you need to travel, roughly?

Well it all started with a suggestion that they visit me in August (my mum was a bit tipsy at that point) and my response being a slightly more polite 'absolutely not, you're not coming up here if I can't happily do normal stuff like sitting in pubs, resturants and cinemas and I don't believe I currently can', which went on to me saying, 'I'm not even convinced that sort of thing will be safe at Christmas, what with public transport'.

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