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Prediction time!

Started by Alberon, August 05, 2020, 02:55:39 PM

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Alberon

So, we're about five months in here in the UK (not counting the months Covid-19 might have been doing the rounds before we noticed). Where are we going to be in another five months or a year? What are your stultifyingly ill-informed opinions?

I think by January we will have had a proper second wave and will have racked up another 10-15 thousand deaths.

In a year, I think there will be an annual vaccine we all have to take. Social Distancing will still be the official policy but most will ignore it. Winter deaths from Covid and seasonal flu will stick at around 20,000 a year.

bgmnts

Quote from: Alberon on August 05, 2020, 02:55:39 PM
In a year, I think there will be an annual vaccine we all have to take.

I doubt that, people won't stand for it. Freeze peach or something.

Fambo Number Mive

I'm pessimistic in the short term but once we have a vaccine things will improve.

I agree re the second wave which I think will start in October. I think we will have a vaccine next September which 60%-70% will take. Once that is rolled out social distancing will end but face masks in indoor spaces and on public transport will stay for a while. Face masks required outdoors between November and March.

Pubs and restaurants will close in September until March. Schools will open in September and close for all but keyworkers by November. It will be an even bigger shitshow than before.

The Government, their supporters and the media will blame the NHS ("we clapped for them, WHAT ARE THEY PLAYING AT?"), Asian people, people on furlough, the EU, China, Trump (trying to make Johnson look less bad by comparing him to Trump), people on the left, Labour, Keir Starmar, Corbyn etc. Most of the British public believe them.

Compliance with anti-covid measures will slightly increase this autumn and winter but only slightly. Camilla Long will write another anti-mask column in the Times in the autumn. Nick Triggle will write another column for the BBC saying "actually, it's going well".

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will only have a small second wave while England has a large one. I predict there will be another 10-15,000 deaths from Covid in England alone by January with a few hundred in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Support for Scottish and Welsh independence will rise further. The EU will come up with a plan to prevent future Covid peaks and a way to help EU economies, which we can't benefit from because we narrowly voted to leave the EU.

There will be an autumn Wimblewrong.

Norton Canes

COVID-19 will catch COVID-20

Cuellar


dissolute ocelot

I'm not convinced there will be a full-on second wave, just lots of pockets of resurgence like we've seen in Leicester, Manchester, Aberdeen, etc. Significant restrictions are going to have to continue, or be intermittently reimposed. Some were never followed very convincingly in the first place. Schools will open. People will work from home if they can. Things like theatres and live music venues and some sports venues are going to be kept shut, or forced to reopen in onerous conditions so nobody goes. Other things like bars and restaurants and cinemas will be heavily restricted and will see seriously reduced incomes till late 2021.

One question is whether people will decide they've had enough and rebel. I think we'll get used to the new restrictions and not rebel.

Eventually next summer there will be a vaccine, which mostly works and most people take, and while there will be more deaths there will be little point in continuing restrictions.

Then everyone will get the flu and die.

chveik


Kelvin

I agree with almost everything dissolute ocelot wrote.

Surely if a second wave was going to happen, it would have been a few weeks ago, once the government loosened all the social distancing / isolation guidelines, but before they insisted on masks? What's the basis for the assumption that it will get worse again in the winter months? Is it because people are more likely to meet up inside?


Fambo Number Mive

Schools opening again in September - Neil Ferguson thinks the R number could increase by as much as half when secondary schools reopen.


Kelvin

Quote from: Fambo Number Mive on August 05, 2020, 04:23:41 PM
Schools opening again in September - Neil Ferguson thinks the R number could increase by as much as half when secondary schools reopen.

Ah, I see. That makes more sense. Thanks.

chveik

Quote from: Kelvin on August 05, 2020, 04:19:26 PM
Is it because people are more likely to meet up inside?

it seems so. and I assume that with all the asymptotic cases, it'd take some time for a new wave to emerge.

Alberon

The other coronaviruses tend to cause more trouble in the winter so it's possible this new one will too.

It's all guesswork. No one really knows, but it'll be interesting for the survivors to look back at this thread in a year and see who got closest.

Dusty Substance

Quote from: Fambo Number Mive on August 05, 2020, 03:34:51 PM
Face masks required outdoors between November and March.

They'll never be able to enforce that.


Fambo Number Mive

Quote from: Dusty Substance on August 05, 2020, 05:03:48 PM
They'll never be able to enforce that.

I imagine it will be something like if a police officer sees you without your facemask outside they can fine you. They would only notice a tiny proportion of cases. Won't stop them mandating it though.

Chedney Honks

Quote from: Chedney Honks on July 27, 2020, 08:25:41 AM
I recently had a chat with some mates where one raised the question 'is this not a major problem any more?' He's no conspiracy guy or minimiser, he knows someone who was seriously affected by it, he's intelligent and empathetic. He's just feeling like we're through the worst of it so why the masks at this point and why the sudden Spain quarantine?

It prompted me to take a step back, try to see if it through the eyes of someone who only follows the headlines and reevaluate our current position.

Having thought about it, my conclusion is that it remains a major problem but one which we currently have under control from a public health perspective.

This is predominantly down to adherence to social distancing, as well as the number of baked in measures in shops, restaurants, etc. We've been lucky to have an OK summer and so outdoor socialising has been much easier. As much as I/we (here) might sometimes focus on the minority who want to take a libertarian stance, and on the abysmal strategy and communication by the government, enough people are following measures to enough of an extent to keep this under control at this point.

Beyond that, less stress on health services and better understanding of treatment has led to a drop in the death rates. Excess deaths are also currently and consistently lower than average. I appreciate that's a very broad statement, but just trying to summarise.

So why is it still a major problem?

As the weather gets worse and people are forced/inclined to socialise more indoors, as social distancing fatigue may affect adherence, more non-Covid illness arises and needs to be treated in hospital adding stress to those systems as well as increasing Covid transmission risk. Schools will seemingly go back in full no matter what. It is likely to hit again in early winter because we can't control certain measures as successfully even if we try harder. And then hopefully by the spring, it will improve again as we're able to socially distance better and with whatever further improvements we hope have been made from a medical/pharmaceutical perspective.


shiftwork2

I thought you'd retired from this schtick?

Anyway my prediction is that humanity is wiped out in the next 12 months.  Alright cheers lads

Chedney Honks

Quote from: Alberon on August 05, 2020, 04:27:48 PM
It's all guesswork. No one really knows, but it'll be interesting for the survivors to look back at this thread in a year and see who got closest.

Let's put some cash on it. 👏👏👏

Shoulders?-Stomach!

Civil unrest is likely to become widespread. Not in revolt about restrictions but as a consequence of the global economy stuttering. Consumer spending and property speculation are the only things keeping this zombified system going in some countries. When you have statements insisting we have some moral duty to eat at Pret A Manger you know the whole thing is fucked. Meanwhile others which have less supine citizens won't tolerate impositions and hardship.




George Oscar Bluth II

I reckon we might have actually fucked it so badly in the first instance that it might help us avoid a really bad second spike? Assuming that having it once means you don't get it so seriously a second time, anyway.

olliebean

I think you may be underestimating how badly we're continuing to fuck it.

Danger Man

I agree with The Bosto Chedney Honks. This is pretty much over.

JohnnyCouncil

Second wave from mid-september, food shortages in 2021. Tories vote to export all the food in Brexit Bonanza, Labour abstain.

Chedney Honks

If we could have an endless summer, we could certainly cope with this from a lifestyle and public health perspective. We'd have to continue with baked in restrictions in many sectors but people have largely adhered at this point, and it remains relatively under control. Way back when, Zetetic spoke about local restrictions and while these are obviously imperfect and easily swerved, if enough people adhere, they evidently work. Same as all of this shit. It doesn't need to be everyone, just enough.

The issue is when ventilation and outdoor activities become restricted by English weather and people are reluctant to give up the taste of normality for a second time. Obviously schools are still a relative unknown, as well. Likewise, there are a number of services and industries that won't survive economically with the current status quo.

Separately, there's a lot of chat about the added effects of flu but I was also thinking that the social distancing measures should also help to reduce the impact of of that this winter as well as - not glib - the number of people vulnerable to flu who have already passed away from Covid.

In summary, we've already fucked it but our infrastructure, relative levels of adherence and low population density mean we'll probably end up bad for the first world but dwarfed by tiers monde.

olliebean

Quote from: JohnnyCouncil on August 07, 2020, 07:40:25 AM
Second wave from mid-september, food shortages in 2021. Tories vote to export all the food in Brexit Bonanza, Labour abstain.

Don't forget the medicine shortages. Tories will blame people dying from lack of insulin or whatever on people not wearing masks properly, whilst being regularly photographed themselves not wearing masks properly.