Lockdown 2.0 This time its personal.

[mobias]

So whats CAB's thoughts on there being another full lockdown? Are we heading that way or are we going to have localised lockdowns of ever increasing severity? Out of all the virology and science experts in the media and public eye through the pandemic the two I listen to the most are the wonderfully droll Prof John Edmunds of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Edinburgh University's Prof Devi Sridhar, whom I slightly have the hots for. The former thinks we've screwed things up so badly yet again that another full lockdown is all but inevitable and the latter thinks along similar lines but that its not too late to get our shit together. Which is of course is wishful thinking since we're governed by morons* and now have a society which is increasingly divided and non compliant with being told what to do.

Prof John Edmunds predicted quite accurately the March lockdown and its duration. He thinks there are two choices available to us. Full lockdown pretty much immediately but for a shorter duration. A kind of circuit break for a few weeks https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/27/regular-uk-lockdowns-could-help-control-covid-says-sage-expert-coronavirus or wait until things are really bad and have another long lockdown, just in time to ruin Christmas for everyone. Of course the latter choice is inevitably whats going to happen is my view.

The scientific community is clearly quite divided now about whether you try and save lives regardless of anything or do you try and save the economy and education. It doesn't realistically seem like you can do both. Certainly not in this country anyway.

*From Westminster anyway. I think the devolved administrations have handled things better, if only from the point of view treating people like adults. Nicola Sturgeon has been particularly strong during the pandemic in my opinion.

[confettiinmyhair]

I'm not sure how you decide when to do a circuit break lockdown. And also how you implement that in the current time when people have become used to their freedoms and there is dissent in the government.

[Alberon]

I think we'll only see local lockdowns from now on.

Local lockdowns that just happen to cover all of the country.

[bgmnts]

Sorry local lockdowns are basically same as national right? Like no leaving house bar shopping, half hour exercise etc?

My mother thinks it just means not being able to leave the county.

[Consignia]

I think we'll only see local lockdowns from now on.

Local lockdowns that just happen to cover all of the country.

Not done a huge amount of good for Leicester or Manchester. I'm hearing a bit of mood music that Greater Manchester will go into full lockdown at some point.

[mobias]

I think a national lockdown would be more draconian, as with before. No one is allowed to leave their homes unless necessary, most of us put back on government furlough. It appears that so far this second wave the UK government is going to a attempt a kind of halfway measure as an experiment so see if that makes any noticeable difference. As Prof John Edmunds says though things already look bad and we're only in this second wave a few weeks and just about to start October. We've also been blessed with quite nice weather during September, that will soon change.

[RicoMNKN]

Sorry local lockdowns are basically same as national right? Like no leaving house bar shopping, half hour exercise etc?

My mother thinks it just means not being able to leave the county.

The Leeds one just means you aren't allowed to visit people in their house.
I can see that there's some sense in preventing people meeting indoors where they are naturally less likely to wear masks or distance, but the pubs are still open.

[BlodwynPig]

I think a national lockdown would be more draconian, as with before. No one is allowed to leave their homes unless necessary, most of us put back on government furlough. It appears that so far this second wave the UK government is going to a attempt a kind of halfway measure as an experiment so see if that makes any noticeable difference. As Prof John Edmunds says though things already look bad and we're only in this second wave a few weeks and just about to start October. We've also been blessed with quite nice weather during September, that will soon change.

Well, you've seen what happens when full lockdown is relaxed. There are measures that can be put in place for a short-term full lock-down of a month or two. Blitz spirit, lads and lasses. Quantitive easing, embrace digital technologies, support bubbles etc etc.

[The Culture Bunker]

I think a national lockdown would be more draconian, as with before.

I have the feeling the horse has already bolted on this one. They can make the measures strict as they can, a significant number of people are just going to do as they please now.

[Zetetic]

I suspect that the UK Government will avoid a national lockdown in England for as long as possible, and won't be inclined to take the economic action required that would enable stricter local or national lockdowns in any part of the UK.

Instead we'll continue to see frequent local lockdowns of the kinds we've seen so far. It seems to be working in Caerphilly, for example... but not very well.

Perhaps I'm being pessimistic.

[mobias]

The two big differences at the moment with the situation, as compared with earlier in the year, is that the hospitals are already filling up with non covid seasonally ill patients. My ex GF works as a high dependency nurse here in Edinburgh and the hospital here is already really busy. As soon as the schools go back the usual seasonal bugs do the rounds and inevitably make their way to the vulnerable and elderly. Here in Edinburgh very little of it is covid related - yet.

The other big difference is this disease, like the seasonal cold and influenza, loves the indoors and the weather is clearly about to turn. I can totally see why the pessimistic scientists are so worried.

[olliebean]

If there's another lockdown, they're going to insist on keeping the schools open this time, aren't they? Meaning I'm probably fucked either way, as I live with a teacher.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Not reducing numbers significantly means restrictions will come and go frequently. The public are already fatigued by the constant changes and their poor and inconsistent manner they are communicated in. This in turn makes them less effective, as does mask conspiracies, the police state etc etc which seems to be proliferated among left and right.

If we start seeing 100s of deaths a day then we are back into the prospect of the health service being under strain, making a lockdown inevitable, just with schools and universities open.

[BlodwynPig]

just with schools and universities open.

as makeshift morgues

[Cloud]

Maybe not yet if we see the numbers continue to stabilise after these past couple of days... really too early to tell

The way things were looking last week, I'd have put a tenner on a full lockdown before the end of October.  Now it seems the doubling time may not be 7 days it might buy us a bit more time.

Even a chance this is just the usual September plague bump and we'll get another quick breather until the shit properly hits the fan around December.

[canadagoose]

It's going to happen, isn't it. I'm not looking forward to it, because it made going out (for exercise and essentials, of course) more unpleasant - I swear the ratio of drunk or belligerent arseholes to normal people was way off in early April. I suppose it probably has to happen. Christmas is going to be odd, but my ex-bf and I had Christmas together in this flat the last two years and it was nice. I'd still like to see my family around that time, but if I can't, well, it'll just have to be that way.

[Cuellar]

As long as I can source 2x10kg and 2x2.5kg olympic weight plates sometime soon we can be locked down for the next 10 years for all I care. Couldn't give a fuck.

[bgmnts]

Thing is though, if its all local lockdowns by christmas, its going to mean some people will be able to have a normal christmas, some wont. That'll be strange.

[Cloud]

It'll be proper shit for people who already get upset at Christmas and feel alienated etc.

New Year will be odd - usually me and a couple of mates go camping in the Lakes and head to the nearby country pub to see the year out.  It's always heaving so there's no way I'd go near it even if King Boris says "fuck it, we'll drop all restrictions over Christmas and New Year and worry about it later".  They are a bit less cautious themselves.  If they did keep the pubs limited, maybe I'd consider going still in separate cars and sitting outside with some bottles etc but TBH it's looking like it could be the first time in about a decade of not going.  And the first time in about TWO decades of not being at a pub at all, but instead sitting at home watching telly... last time I did that Angus Deaton was on!

[frajer]

even if King Boris says "fuck it, we'll drop all restrictions over Christmas and New Year and worry about it later".

More likely he'll announce anyone who gathers for Christmas and New Year is directly responsible for the rise in cases - new slogan: "This is on You, Not Me, Fuckos" - then be driven directly from the podium to a massive fuck-off coke 'n' cocktails party on a Russian yacht.

[Sebastian Cobb]

Whether or not they actually let people gather at Christmas, I can see him fronting that they will just to whip people into the Christmas spending.

If people were to realise en masse that low-key Christmas celebrations are generally nicer, less exhausting and are less likely to leave you with a credit card bill it takes months to pay off, it would be considered an economic disaster.

[Bernice]

Can I just say I hate this shit.

What's with corona deaths still being so low? I see we're up to 71 today but otherwise it's been pretty flat/on a very slight upward gradient. Is that shit meant to hit the fan in a few weeks or what?

[Fambo Number Mive]

They changed the method of counting - I imagine a lot of people are dying after 28 days of a covid test due to treatment improving.

[MojoJojo]

It's more that the cases being counted are in the community rather than in hospital. Back in May pretty much only people in hospital were being tested, where as now a lot of non-hospitalised people are being tested (although not enough). May would have looked a lot worse  than it did if there was wider testing at the time.

If you look at the patients in hospital graph that give you a more useful idea of where we are in the second wave. Which isn't to say everything is fine - cases are still increasing and that needs to change.

[Cloud]

Deaths are doubling at the same rate as cases (but with a few weeks lag), so it'll still get shit if we end up at 100k-200k per day again which is estimated to be the real daily figure back in April

[Bernice]

Cheers for the answers lads.

[dissolute ocelot]

We're definitely heading for the same situation as America. Some people are following the rules, but enough aren't that a lot of people are going to have someone in their household or bubble who's out socialising, failing to socially distance, and certain to catch it sooner or later. A lot of people whether teenagers or boomers are just not seriously observing. Schools, unis, and workplaces all multiply this. And even if you're more or less following rules, wearing a mask and more or less socially distancing, that isn't 100% protection if you're out of your home regularly. Everyone staying at home for a few weeks would help, but there's zero chance that everyone will follow rules. Contact tracing is failing for many reasons simultaneously (lack of testing capacity, failure to trace, people not isolating, too many cases...)

The only option is to hang in there and wait for a vaccine. Say goodbye to elderly or vulnerable people. It's either that or send in the army, and frankly I don't think our army is up to imposing martial law.

[jobotic]

The vaccine that Serco will be responsible for distributing?

I'll take it if I find one on a train.