Author Topic: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger  (Read 62580 times)

Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #90 on: October 11, 2020, 02:23:15 PM »
It's not only the anti-maskers who are being over-simplistic about this.
Not an overly hard call on which group to be more sympathetic to though is it

Paul Calf

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #91 on: October 11, 2020, 02:25:35 PM »
Takes as hot as Bootsy’s trousers.

greencalx

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #92 on: October 11, 2020, 05:33:32 PM »
Since this has all polarised tediously like everything fucking else in the world right now, it's become impossible to have a grown-up discussion about acceptable levels of risk. And to risk bringing this back on topic, maybe that's what Keith should be doing instead of supporting the Tories' prioritisation of hospitality over healthcare and education.

BlodwynPig

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #93 on: October 11, 2020, 06:46:09 PM »
Since this has all polarised tediously like everything fucking else in the world right now, it's become impossible to have a grown-up discussion about acceptable levels of risk. And to risk bringing this back on topic, maybe that's what Keith should be doing instead of supporting the Tories' prioritisation of hospitality over healthcare and education.

What is an acceptable level of risk? serious question

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #94 on: October 11, 2020, 06:47:54 PM »
I have finally realised what the left need to do. The answer's been around for about 30 years and I never understood what it meant. But now the right have their boogaloo movement, everything is clear...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Oy7krobW78



Sebastian Cobb

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #97 on: October 11, 2020, 10:09:28 PM »
Have we done 'Labour friends of concentration camps' yet?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-peer-concentration-camps-asylum-seekers-immigrants-admiral-lord-west-b966337.html

People who lost their shit over Crobbins looking at a mural and mispronouncing a nonce's name wrong are very quiet on this one.

Old Nehamkin

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #98 on: October 11, 2020, 10:11:09 PM »
https://twitter.com/RPCorpIntl/status/1315388579632168960

lol was just coming here to post this.




Truly an all-timer.

(for context, the guy in the quoted tweet is Felix Biederman, a Brooklyn-based podcaster and sometime writer best known for co-hosting Chapo Trap House.)

Sebastian Cobb

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #99 on: October 11, 2020, 10:13:21 PM »
Weetman's in there doing the same thing, lol.

Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #100 on: October 12, 2020, 09:10:44 AM »
I think NEC ballots won't be emailed out until next week, so i'll repost this then, but just as a heads-up: the Grassroots Voice candidates are trying to get the most out of the new STV voting system for the NEC by getting people to vote according to which region you live in.

Type in your postcode here and it will recommend an order to select them in.

Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #101 on: October 12, 2020, 10:29:08 AM »
I think NEC ballots won't be emailed out until next week, so i'll repost this then, but just as a heads-up: the Grassroots Voice candidates are trying to get the most out of the new STV voting system for the NEC by getting people to vote according to which region you live in.

Type in your postcode here and it will recommend an order to select them in.

Quote
Here's the Grassroots Voice ballot for Yorkshire and The Humber.

Please fill your ballot in as follows:

Nadia Jama
Laura Pidcock
Ann Henderson
Mish Rahman
Yasmine Dar
Gemma Bolton

I don't think we need to be putting Pidcock 2nd, she's pretty much assured of a place isn't she?

Blumf

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #102 on: October 12, 2020, 10:53:18 AM »
I don't think we need to be putting Pidcock 2nd, she's pretty much assured of a place isn't she?

I think it's some combinatorics stuff, they all get a place on each position:

Quote
Preference Orders

Please find below a list of the regions we have allocated preference lists to, and the respective orders we recommend for each.

Northern and South West

  • Laura Pidcock
  • Ann Henderson
  • Mish Rahman
  • Gemma Bolton
  • Nadia Jama
  • Yasmine Dar

Scotland, Wales, and East

  • Ann Henderson
  • Nadia Jama
  • Yasmine Dar
  • Laura Pidcock
  • Gemma Bolton
  • Mish Rahman

Yorkshire & the Humber, East Midlands, West London

  • Nadia Jama
  • Laura Pidcock
  • Ann Henderson
  • Mish Rahman
  • Yasmine Dar
  • Gemma Bolton

North West, N Ireland, and International

  • Yasmine Dar
  • Gemma Bolton
  • Laura Pidcock
  • Nadia Jama
  • Ann Henderson
  • Mish Rahman

West Midlands, North & East London

  • Mish Rahman
  • Yasmine Dar
  • Gemma Bolton
  • Ann Henderson
  • Laura Pidcock
  • Nadia Jama

South East, South London

  • Gemma Bolton
  • Mish Rahman
  • Nadia Jama
  • Ann Henderson
  • Yasmine Dar
  • Laura Pidcock

Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #103 on: October 12, 2020, 11:05:06 AM »
I don't think we need to be putting Pidcock 2nd, she's pretty much assured of a place isn't she?

Not if everyone thinks as you do.

Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #104 on: October 12, 2020, 11:11:22 AM »
I don't think we need to be putting Pidcock 2nd, she's pretty much assured of a place isn't she?

Not necessarily - it could depend on if people voting for her put her in their 1st or 2nd slot, or further down. The GV recommendations are to make sure all our 2nd, 3rd choices etc get maximised effectively so that the whole slate gets over the line.

greencalx

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #105 on: October 12, 2020, 11:16:46 AM »
What is an acceptable level of risk? serious question

Indeed it is a serious question, although its value is primarily rhetorical, since any direct answer can only take the form "the level that society accepts". Whilst cute in the context of a philosophy essay, it has limited practical utility.

The basic issue is that even if we can quantify risk in terms of probabilities, the space of outcomes is multi-dimensional and there are tradeoffs where an action that decreases one risk may increase another. Therefore there is no unique optimum, unless you reduce to a single dimension. One way to do this is to weight the different risks and combine into a single number that you can then optimise (actuaries do this, and denominate in pounds). Alternatively you can throw away all but one of the dimensions and attempt to minimise that risk. This latter I think is what many people are guilty of in popular discourse. It also needs to be acknowledged that all actions (including no action) have some risk associated with them: therefore "zero" is not a credible answer to the question of what an acceptable risk level is (but what a rhetorical question seems loaded towards provoking),

To speak more specifically about the issue of schools being opened or closed. Opening has the risk of increasing community transmission and in school staff in particular being more exposed than they would otherwise be. Closing has the risk of adverse mental health consequences for children stuck at home with nothing to do (everything else that they would otherwise do being also closed) and widening inequality as the educational gap between rich and poor increases.

The question then is how you weight these outcomes. The difficulty is that there are many unknowns in both of them; and also because we have limited previous experience in dealing with this particular balancing act, we can't simply look to the past to provide some guide to the future. I think it is the latter that ultimately normalises risks within a community to the point where they become "acceptable".

One can look to numbers... in the 9 weeks that Scottish schools have been open, I believe there have been around 300 attested cases among primary kids (population ~390k) and about twice that number among secondary kids (population ~320k). If the infectious period is around 2 weeks in duration, that's about 60 live cases across the country's primary schools at any one time. The key questions then are (i) can you rapidly identify and isolate those cases to prevent secondary infections; and (ii) how many cases are there that we don't know about (e.g., asymptomatic infections) that might also put people at risk? I think (i) is in principle achievable, but the answer to (ii) is much murkier and needs to be taken into consideration.

Even less well understood is what the long-term impacts of a prolonged absence from school (and, importantly, other activities that serve to enrich children's lives) are. These may be less serious than the risk of death from covid, but there are potentially many more children who are exposed to this risk than those exposed to the life-threatening consequences of a covid infection. So how do you balance that?

The easy way out is to simply ignore one of the risks: apart from anything else it saves one from the moral dilemma of having to answer the question. But to do so is intellectual cowardice, in my view. I feel uneasy about weighting my child's long-term mental health and wellbeing over the life-chances of their teacher; and doubtless others who've arrived at the opposite weighting feel similarly. (Some don't seem to give a shit about children though: they can fuck off). It's a difficult problem.

As I've noted before, about the only pragmatic option is to approach things very cautiously: I would argue, with more caution than has actually been applied thus far. I still don't get the rush to reopen pubs, restaurants, cinemas, etc ahead of schools. I would have thought that reinstating routine medical appointments and (school) education would have been obvious things to prioritise above everything else. With a robust testing system in place in these areas, it ought to be possible (given the numbers quoted above) to maintain a reasonable level of control; at least it would become obvious if there was a problem and more caution is needed. A problem we have is that by reopening many things at the same time, it becomes harder to figure out where the increasing cases are coming from. Some will be coming from schools: but how much? We don't seem to know.

It's also worth noting that there aren't many other options on the table, at least for primary-age kids. One thing that became abundantly clear during lockdown is that Zoom-based educational or social activities do not work for this age group. They are literally stuck at home with nothing to do, and the effects of that escalate quite quickly. Purely anecdotal, but there does seem to have been quite a big (detrimental) change in behaviour at school this term: I do believe this is an issue.

Personally, I think the risks to life (both pupils and staff from covid) are broadly comparable with those of being involved in a car accident on the way to/from school. Since we have decades of experience of managing these risks (e.g., through road safety education, speed limits, crossing wardens etc) people seem to find them acceptably low. (The 1.4m people killed in road accidents worldwide each year might disagree though). If the hardcore indefinite-total-lockdown enthusiasts were being intellectually honest, they would also campaign for a complete ban on motorised transport. They should probably have disposed of their fridge following the Grenfell fire. Gas appliances and pressurised hot water systems should be given the time of day as well. Sex, too, is super-risky, as is childbirth. Dispensing with those would certainly solve all our problems in the fullness of time.

[Incidentally any further discussion, if you've not already lost the will to live, probably belongs in another thread as otherwise we might derail important NEC considerations]

NoSleep

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #106 on: October 12, 2020, 11:23:07 AM »
I don't think we need to be putting Pidcock 2nd, she's pretty much assured of a place isn't she?

I think it's worth taking the advice given and not second guessing, as this is a make-or-break vote for the left of the party. I'm trusting that they know the best way to maximise the impact of these 6 candidates. If this all fucks up, as did the last vote for NEC, due to people not focussing their votes, then there's not going to be much reason to stay with Labour.

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #107 on: October 12, 2020, 12:08:36 PM »
Quote
hardcore indefinite-total-lockdown enthusiasts

Who are those, exactly? Even the most cautious accept that without concerted action internationally, a lockdown is simply delaying the inevitable.

If everyone globally was sensible we could have sorted this in 4-6 weeks in April and May with a UN mandated co-ordinated lockdown, isolating returning essential workers, managing that on an overlapping rota. It wouldn't have killed the virus out completely (civil disobedience, fecklessness, etc) but would have reduced transmission points to a number so low as to allow normal activity to resume in earnest. It looks like the virus was around as far back as September 2019, so it took 7 months until it took off. This time around we would be more vigilant too, and have better treatments and experience of managing it.

Right now, with complex regularly changing restrictions having limited effect, a balance isn't being reached and I have read zero persuasive arguments why we should ease up on restrictions, and very few persuasive arguments in defence of this, I believe, doomed effort to try and make covid, normal economic life and a functioning health service and education sector co-exist.

Even if you accept a level of deaths are tolerable/inevitable (as your argument suggests), there is still the collapse of the health service and education which will happen if the virus is unleashed. Co-ordinated 4-6 week global lockdown now.

bgmnts

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #108 on: October 12, 2020, 01:11:50 PM »
Wait, what is the point of the Lib Dems now?

Blumf

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #109 on: October 12, 2020, 01:15:10 PM »
Wait, what is the point of the Lib Dems now?

15p bag tax now!!

Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #110 on: October 12, 2020, 02:10:09 PM »
Holy shit even a spineless floppy worm has more spine

NoSleep

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #111 on: October 12, 2020, 02:15:51 PM »
Keir-A-Knightly is driven overwhelmingly by fear above any form of conviction. A veritable weathercock.

Sebastian Cobb

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #112 on: October 12, 2020, 02:19:22 PM »
Holy shit even a spineless floppy worm has more spine


He reminds me of an overly serious law student acquaintance who wouldn't put a foot wrong for fear of it jeopardising their as yet, unattained law degree. Gaveuup smoking weed out of cautiousness as an undergrad, used to panic in their bar job as the landlord bent the rules. Total cleanshirt.

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #113 on: October 12, 2020, 02:19:33 PM »
I'm sure the American electorate couldn't give a fuck what the Labour leader thinks at all, which is one reason not to give an endorsement, but Trump thrives off establishment politicians saying they don't like him so I can understand Starm's thinking here.

And no right minded person would think he would endorse Trump anyway.

Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #114 on: October 12, 2020, 02:24:05 PM »
He is Aaron Burr in Hamilton.

Talk less, smile more.
Don't let them know what you're against or what you're for
You want to get ahead?
Fools who run their mouths off wind up dead

NoSleep

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #115 on: October 12, 2020, 02:25:49 PM »
^^No right minded person would mistake him for a socialist either (but many mistakenly trusted his lies anyway).

Johnny Yesno

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #116 on: October 12, 2020, 02:42:47 PM »
Personally, I think the risks to life (both pupils and staff from covid) are broadly comparable with those of being involved in a car accident on the way to/from school. Since we have decades of experience of managing these risks (e.g., through road safety education, speed limits, crossing wardens etc) people seem to find them acceptably low. (The 1.4m people killed in road accidents worldwide each year might disagree though). If the hardcore indefinite-total-lockdown enthusiasts were being intellectually honest, they would also campaign for a complete ban on motorised transport. They should probably have disposed of their fridge following the Grenfell fire. Gas appliances and pressurised hot water systems should be given the time of day as well. Sex, too, is super-risky, as is childbirth. Dispensing with those would certainly solve all our problems in the fullness of time.

People are terrible at assessing risk, so what they think about the risk of driving means very little regarding the risk of C19. In fact, their attitude to the risk of climate change suggests we should address the risks one by one rather than by comparing their attitudes towards other risks.

Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #117 on: October 12, 2020, 03:16:30 PM »
Not if everyone thinks as you do.

But not everyone does, there will be lots of people who aren't focussed on getting all 6 of the left slate on to the NEC who will vote for Pidcock as she's relatively well-known. That's what I think anyway. You only need to look at the CLP noms to see how she's pretty far ahead of everyone else.

BlodwynPig

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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #118 on: October 12, 2020, 03:39:09 PM »
Who are those, exactly? Even the most cautious accept that without concerted action internationally, a lockdown is simply delaying the inevitable.

If everyone globally was sensible we could have sorted this in 4-6 weeks in April and May with a UN mandated co-ordinated lockdown, isolating returning essential workers, managing that on an overlapping rota. It wouldn't have killed the virus out completely (civil disobedience, fecklessness, etc) but would have reduced transmission points to a number so low as to allow normal activity to resume in earnest. It looks like the virus was around as far back as September 2019, so it took 7 months until it took off. This time around we would be more vigilant too, and have better treatments and experience of managing it.

Right now, with complex regularly changing restrictions having limited effect, a balance isn't being reached and I have read zero persuasive arguments why we should ease up on restrictions, and very few persuasive arguments in defence of this, I believe, doomed effort to try and make covid, normal economic life and a functioning health service and education sector co-exist.

Even if you accept a level of deaths are tolerable/inevitable (as your argument suggests), there is still the collapse of the health service and education which will happen if the virus is unleashed. Co-ordinated 4-6 week global lockdown now.

"Co-ordinated 4-6 week global lockdown now has COVID-19 on the floor, COVID-19 looks done and dusted, but wait SINISTER MORE DEADLY VIRUS IS WAITING FOR THE TAP...HE'S COMING IN...HE'S COMING INNNNN!!! Referee Starmer is crouched close to the tap AND HE DID NOTHING...HE DID NUTHIN'"


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Re: Labour Party Desolation v3: Abstainence Makes the Farce Grow Stronger
« Reply #119 on: October 12, 2020, 04:54:52 PM »
Keir-A-Knightly is driven overwhelmingly by fear above any form of conviction. A veritable weathercock.

As soon the 2017 election result came in, Corbyn should have done everything possible to get open selection of MPs and full CLP recall through the NEC. Brexit would have acted as cover for some of the rancour that would have come from the PLP.

Look at the state of it, even now there are only 9% of the PLP with the guts to stand against the whip on basic humanitarian issues that should not, cannot be abstained on.

They were too afraid, but the Labour right fucked us over anyway even when we were playing nice. They knew it would happen, they knew they wouldn't go quietly and they knew a Brexit election ran the risk of wiping out Corbynism before it got started.

They get more sympathy as they were so under the cosh, but it, and lots of other strategy by at the top of Labour after 2017 has proven mistaken and costly.

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