Topic: Jockdown II: No Way Out West

[stonkers]

Prof Mark Woolhouse has now come out and said we weren't actually anywhere near elimination last summer and that it can't realisitically be done at this point.

[Blinder Data]

Prof Mark Woolhouse has now come out and said we weren't actually anywhere near elimination last summer and that it can't realisitically be done at this point.

Times article:

An adviser to Nicola Sturgeon has challenged the first minister’s claim that coronavirus was “reseeded” into Scotland from other parts of the UK and claimed her “elimination” strategy is unattainable.

The first minister has claimed coronavirus was “almost eliminated” in Scotland last summer and it was brought back into the country from travellers coming in from outside.

Mark Woolhouse, the Edinburgh University epidemiologist who sits on Sturgeon’s Covid-19 advisory group, challenged these claims at the Scottish parliament’s Covid-19 committee.

Jason Leitch, Scotland’s national clinical director, claimed that “following the first lockdown the majority of the Covid virus strains that had been circulating in the population were eliminated”.

Woolhouse said: “Scotland was not close to elimination at any stage during this epidemic. We had low numbers of reported cases during the summer, but . . . the estimates were that we never fell below 500 cases in Scotland.

“The majority of those cases were not reported because the virus was circulating at that stage among young adults who do not show many symptoms.

“As soon as testing increased in August there was a dramatic increase in the number of cases we were detecting in those groups.”

Woolhouse said “genome sequencing work . . . showed quite clearly that the lineages that were present in the first wave in Scotland were still present in the second wave . . . so we were not close to elimination in Scotland”.

He said future elimination “will not be practical” in the short term and will only be achieved in future if vaccine cuts transmission, which remains inconclusive.

Scottish ministers point to New Zealand, which has managed to keep coronavirus at minimal levels, but Woolhouse said the country is nowhere near as cosmopolitan and connected as the UK.

He said: “If the UK had put border controls in place in mid-March, as the home secretary has suggested in the past, it would have been far too late.

“The UK’s epidemic was seeded in mid-February, around about half term, by thousands of cases being brought in from France, Italy and Spain.

“Even if we put our border control measures in place when New Zealand did it would have had very little effect. New Zealand went into lockdown on March 25, after the UK on March 23.”

He added: “I heard a lot of voices over last summer saying ‘all these tourists from England were a potential epidemiological threat’ for the Highlands.

“I didn’t think they would be — and it turned out they weren’t . . . there were no outbreaks of any significance linked to tourists . . . there were a small number of lineages of the virus that could be linked to England — not necessarily linked to tourists, but it could have been tourists at 6 per cent of the total, but it wasn’t where Scotland’s viruses were coming from.”

He added: “No country with an epidemic the size of Scotland has managed to have a smaller second wave than the first . . . no country with one tenth of the epidemic size of Scotland has avoided a bigger second wave.

“There appears to be no route that any country in the world has found to get to where Scotland is now to where New Zealand is now.

“We missed our chance to be like New Zealand in February 2020 and by March it was already too late for us, and now it is far too late because there is no way back . . . we have had two full lockdowns in Scotland and those have not managed to achieve elimination . . . to get to where we are now to elimination via lockdown would require a very strict lockdown for many, many months.

“You can’t have an elimination strategy and also be relaxing measures — those are contradictory aims.”

Woolhouse said the death rate in Scotland is so high “because we have concentrated so much on lockdown and otherwise trying to suppress the virus”.

He said: “Between half and three quarters of all the people who died during the first lockdown got coronavirus after lockdown began . . . which tells me that we didn’t pay nearly enough attention to doing things beyond lockdown to protect the vulnerable in care homes and the wider community — all we had was shielding, which wasn’t particularly effective and a bit of extra advice for the over 70s.

“We could have put so much more effort into protecting the people that needed protected. . . lockdowns did not save those people and that is something we need to reflect on very hard.”

Woolhouse also challenged claims by Leitch that “the best way for the virus to mutate is high numbers” of people infected.

Woolhouse said: “It goes without saying that if you have more cases there are more opportunities for evolution to happen, but that is not quite how it works.

“Our best understanding is the new Kent variant arose in a single patient that was infected with coronavirus, was immunocompromised and was being treated with an antibody therapy — a very special case — and a large number of mutations was able to happen in that one patient.

“That is not just a typical case, that is a particular combination of circumstances which we can learn about and understand to take more targeted measures to monitor patients . . . particularly with vaccine failures.

“The final point of interest about the evolution of the Kent variant is it happened in September, but we didn’t even see it as a problem until December . . . so we won’t even recognise them as a problem until they are already well established, so we do have to find a sustainable way to deal with that reality.”

[scarecrow]

Yes, I loved Mark Woolhouse OBE's Telegraph article from last September, 'Lockdown failed. We must follow the Swedish model and learn to live with Covid'.

He's struck me as a bit of a Tory shill throughout all this. Isn't it a good idea to maintain - or even increase - restrictions at least until the vaccination programme is complete?

[dissolute ocelot]

Nicola Sturgeon would go down the zero covid route if she could but realistically she can't if England isn't. Case rates are quite low up here now though at least.

She seemed keen on zero Covid at first, but more recently has been trying to balance the mental health/children playing/letting people out thing. The Scottish Government were very reluctant to close the schools in January and only did it at the very last minute. Last year the biggest spreader seemed to be all the students coming back in September (not one of her better decisions), so what happens with them will be crucial.

[Malcy]

I was in Paisley a couple of weeks ago passing through. Must have seen about 5 other people walking around the streets and a couple of dozen cars in a 20 min period. This was at 5pm. Place looked like a Lockdown should, but where I am all through every lockdown has been normal or even busier. I walked past, and had to cross the road to do so, a group of 20+ people last week. A police van and car drove past them and didn't bat an eyelid.

What fucking lockdown?

[MrMrs]

did you see me?

[Rizla]

etc

[Sebastian Cobb]

Has anyone else applied for a postal vote this year?

I'm not 100% sure the elections will happen yet and I could hit the community centre they turn into a polling station with a well-aimed rock from my window but decided to just get it done by post so I don't have to fuck about, worth it just to avoid the awkward bit where you wander in not knowing which stand to go to, and while reading the displayed instructions someone who's there just asks you because they either think you're thick or are just really bored.

[Blinder Data]

Has anyone else applied for a postal vote this year?

Yes. In so doing I found out the only way to apply is to print out a paper form and post it, which feels rather archaic.

Numbers would have to skyrocket for the election to be cancelled. Other countries have managed to hold them during COVID-19.

[MrMrs]

ye ragin mate

[Malcy]

I'd rather do a postal vote even though the polling station is only round the corner but last time I voted my bit of paper was unfolded and looked at and my choice didn't seem to agree with the person who looked at it based on the look they gave so fuck that. And no it wasn't Tory.

Had forgot the thing came through the post about it recently but surely this should be an online thing by now. Really can't be arsed having to go use a printer somewhere.

[stonkers]

You can request they post a form out to you if you can't print one off, albeit I did it a few weeks ago and it's yet to turn up.

[Sebastian Cobb]

Yes. In so doing I found out the only way to apply is to print out a paper form and post it, which feels rather archaic.

Oh yeah, I forgot about that. I don't have a printer but discovered in the small print I could email them to get a form posted, I wasn't expecting to get anything from this but the form arrived in days and came with a prepaid self-addressed envelope as a bonus.

To add to the archaicness the email address was in a mailto: url, so clicking it caused my computer to ask me to set up my email client, as like almost everyone I use webmail.

[canadagoose]

I got a postal vote request sent to me by the SNP. And I'm not even a member or a recent SNP voter. Heh.

[Blue Jam]

Can we drink in the park from Friday or what?

Would love to go for a picnic here. Obviously you Weegies probably won't get the privilege.

[jamiefairlie]

Can we drink in the park from Friday or what?

Would love to go for a picnic here. Obviously you Weegies probably won't get the privilege.

They'll all be full of Royalty worshippers celebrating their unique culture.

[GMTV]

Some more details of the end of LOCKDOON announced today

Nicola Sturgeon says lockdown will start to be lifted from the beginning of April
Travel restrictions in and out of Scotland are scheduled to end from 26 April, but international travel will "not be achievable" before 17 May
Also on 26 April, cafes, pubs and restaurants can open until 8pm indoors, but not serve alcohol. Outdoor drinking will be permitted until 10pm
The aim is to have the lowest level of restrictions across Scotland by the end of June - that could mean physical distancing rules remaining along with number limits and table service in hospitality
Mainland Scotland has been in lockdown since 26 December last year
Hairdressers will start operating again from 5 April; gyms and non-essential shops will be allowed to open on 26 April

[George Oscar Bluth II]

Hairdressers opening a whole week before England! Quick! To Gretna Green!

[dissolute ocelot]

The Scottish timetable for significant easing in April and near-normal in May seems optimistic given the vaccination targets: over 50s and at-risk groups are supposed to get their first dose by early May, but it takes weeks before there's immunity, and for the rest of the population the target for first dose is vaguely given as end of July or autumn, meaning a lot of under-50s could potentially go to the pub, catch COVID, and be sick for months with long COVID. The plans only make sense if COVID is almost eliminated by May, which seems unlikely as the latest figures suggest a flattening of the curve around 500 cases a day.

[Sebastian Cobb]

I took the last reopenings with a pinch of salt and many of them got pushed back so I see little reason not to do the same.

Also wouldn't be surprised if there was need to clamp things down again as numbers rise.

[Blue Jam]

Oooh heck:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-56633336

Was at The Meadows yesterday and didn't witness any bad behaviour while I was there but I did notice the polis hanging about and a couple of riot vans driving off, with one circling the park. Must have just missed it.

Would love to have a traditional Edinburgh (disposable) barbecue now but it'll be a good few weeks before I even dare to try.

[Sebastian Cobb]

It was a nice day here yesterday so I went for an afternoon walk. The park was mobbed and there were a few plumes of smoke both on the nice green and the more appropriate wasteland bits from barbecues.

[Blue Jam]

The Meadows now has a load of signs up saying it's illegal to drink there. They look like Soviet propaganda in style, lots of red and black and a minimalist design depicting a bottle. Along with the patrolling Covid goons in tabards it's depressing to see and I have a horrible feeling this will last beyond lockdown. Handy way to kill off all the barbecues and only allow Fringe events organisers to destroy the grass with their massive tents.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-56675490

[jamiefairlie]

Avoids this though....

[Blue Jam]

Just got a letter from Ian Murray MP assuring me that there will be more polis patrolling The Meadows handing out fixed penalty notices for drinking alcohol.

Feel like pure shit just want to go and have a few cans in The Meadows.

[scarecrow]

Ian Rankin has been lobbying for this all year.

[Blue Jam]

Ian Rankin has been lobbying for this all year.

It’s alright for him, he's probably got a massive garden.

[canadagoose]

Just got a letter from Ian Murray MP assuring me that there will be more polis patrolling The Meadows handing out fixed penalty notices for drinking alcohol.

Feel like pure shit just want to go and have a few cans in The Meadows.

You need to get yourself down Leith, it's not really being enforced here. Might need to hide your drink if a polis walks past, mind.

[scarecrow]

Is it not legal to drink in public spaces in Edinburgh any more?

[canadagoose]

Is it not legal to drink in public spaces in Edinburgh any more?

Apparently not, due to the coronavirus regulations. Usually it would be.