No Deal Brexit Imminent [split topic] [start new threads]

[Fambo Number Mive]

No idea how much we should trust this, as this is from Robert Peston:

I've been passed the government's "reasonable worst case scenario planning assumptions to support civil contingencies planning for the end of the transition period".

The 34-page document (sent to be my Twitter's @mi6rogue) describes itself as a "challenging manifestation of the risk in question" but "not an extreme or absolute worst case scenario"...

1) Flow rates of medicines and medical products "could initially reduce to 60-80% over three months which, if unmitigated, would impact on the supply of medicines and medical products across the UK".

2) "Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and may absorb significant amounts of police resources. There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions."

3) "EU and UK fishers could clash over the lost access to historic fishing grounds, and there could be a significant uplift in illegal fishing activities."

4) "Competing demands on UK government and devolved administration maritime agencies and their assets could put [maritime security] enforcement and response capabilities at risk."

5) There will be "reduced [food] supply availability, especially of certain fresh products" and "supply of some critical dependencies for the food supply chain... could be reduced".

6) "Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel."

7) "Border delays, tariffs and new regulatory barriers/costs may result in disruption to supply of critical chemicals used in the UK... leading to the disruption of essential services (such as food, energy, water and medicine). Economic factors could result in some chemicals suppliers reducing operations or closing."

8) "Border delays could affect local fuel disruption. There will not be wider national-level oil shortage."

9) There is a risk of a reduction in the supply of medicines for UK veterinary use which "would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease outbreaks, with potential detrimental impacts for animal health and welfare, the environment, wider food safety/availability and zoonotic disease control which can directly impact human health".

10) "Between 40-70% of trucks travelling to the EU might not be ready for new border controls. This could reduce flow across the short channel crossing to 60-80% of normal levels with maximum queues of 7,000 trucks in Kent and delays of two days. The worst disruption would subside within three months".

1) The transition from "internal security cooperation with the EU" to "non-EU mechanisms" may not be smooth and seamless and may "result in a mutual reduction in capability to tackle crime and terrorism".

12) Around one in 20 local authorities are at risk of financial collapse as a result of higher service demand caused by a disruptive EU exit.

There are plenty of other risks identified in the document. They show the magnitude of what is at stake as talks on the that elusive free trade deal reach their climax over the coming 24 hours.

I asked the government for a comment. This is what a spokesperson said: "As a responsible government we continue to make extensive preparations for a wide range of scenarios, including the reasonable worst case...

"Whatever the outcome of the negotiations, we will soon be outside the single market and customs union.

"It's vital that businesses and citizens prepare now for the opportunities and changes at the end of the transition period, and intensive planning is underway to support them to get ready.

"This includes launching a comprehensive communications campaign to make sure everyone knows what they need to do to prepare".

As with coronavirus, the government are determined to shift the blame for anything going wrong from the government to the public, aided by their supporters on social media.

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-12-06/the-12-reasonable-worst-case-outcomes-if-brexit-talks-collapse

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1335620255385792512

Lots of Brexiteers replying on Twitter to Peston with desperate arguments.

[Paul Calf]

Fucking amazing how many HR managers from Birmingham, van drivers from Northampton and logistics operatives from Wigan suddenly have a hard-on for fishing quotas isn't it?

[DistressedArea]

Pretty sure that oven-ready means a conventional oven not a microwave.

[Huxleys Babkins]

At least COVID has spared us the continued spectacle of vox pops of irate pensioners supping 11am pints on the tax payers tab wishing for us all to lose our jobs so they can have their country back.

[TheBrownBottle]

Brexiteers genuinely flabbergasted to discover they haven't voted to restore the British Empire to exactly as it was during the Imperial Century.

They'd be furious to learn that the Costa Brava was never painted pink, either.  So even if Brexit had led to a restoration of the empire at its peak, their gaudy 'villa' in a gated community wouldn't have been within its bounds.  So they'd have still been fucked.

[buttgammon]

Fucking amazing how many HR managers from Birmingham, van drivers from Northampton and logistics operatives from Wigan suddenly have a hard-on for fishing quotas isn't it?

The way I account for the obsession with fishing is that, because Great Britain (as opposed to the UK) doesn't have any actual land borders, it's the main way they can conceive of Brexit as defending and extending their territory. It's some comedown for a country that once presided over a huge empire to be squabbling over a bit of water.

[jobotic]

No deal coming.

All the shit will be the fault of Remainers if you're a leaver, or Corbyn if you're an FPBE centrist prick.

[Zetetic]

Looks like this might finally be when the other shoe drops then?

Make sure you've got stuff in your freezer and cupboards if you can, I guess, just in case.

Not ideal time to stretch my meds out, unfortunately. (Edit: They're not currently on the NCSO list which is ... a good sign, I guess? But at least one antidepressant that they might be substituted for is...)

[Paul Calf]

The way I account for the obsession with fishing is that, because Great Britain (as opposed to the UK) doesn't have any actual land borders, it's the main way they can conceive of Brexit as defending and extending their territory. It's some comedown for a country that once presided over a huge empire to be squabbling over a bit of water.

It's also amplified and encouraged by the usual suspects because...

https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/

More than a quarter of the United Kingdom's fishing quota is in the hands of a tiny group of the country's wealthiest families, an Unearthed investigation has found.

Just five families on the Sunday Times Rich List hold or control 29% of the UK's fishing quota.

Still, Lexit eh?

[frajer]

The Tory Brexit Handbook:
1. Deny impending negative impacts on Brexit
2. Watch as the severe negative impacts of Brexit occur regularly
3. Claim none of these impacts could have been foreseen, then deny all responsibility with a side-dollop of "now is not the time for negativity"

Just absolute horrorshow cunts. Job security aside (mine is on the line) the medicinal delays and shortages is what's keeping me up at night as I've got a family member who's probably going to end up hospitalised without their daily cocktail of pills. And I'm well aware that I'm still 10 times better off than a lot of people.

Still, dem blue passports tho.

[olliebean]

I'm increasingly convinced that the main movers behind all this are the hedge fund managers and disaster capitalists who stand to gain from the whole thing being a disaster, as they're literally betting on it. The whole thing makes more sense when you see it from the point of view of people who are looking to increase, rather than reduce, the amount of damage it causes.

[George Oscar Bluth II]

If you take a step back from all this...it's complete insanity isn't it. Just lunacy.

[Fr.Bigley]

If you take a step back from all this...it's complete insanity isn't it. Just lunacy.

I have never felt so truly hopeless in my entire life, and I left Uni in a recession with an art degree.

[Paul Calf]

I only hope that the cunts responsible for this will one day be exposed and strung up in the wind.

I know that this is futile. It'll never happen.

[jobotic]

Yes it's hideous.

And they are just laughing at us.

[George Oscar Bluth II]

Is it really, really, really coming down to fishing, an industry that's almost completely irrelevant? And to protect fishing we're risking snarling up the ports and delaying medical supplies during a once in a century pandemic.

I'm sure I can turn on the news later and see some elderly racists in a town centre somewhere who'll tell me it's what they voted for though.

[jobotic]

That's a red herring (geddit). It's the chance to fuck over employment rights that matters most.

[Huxleys Babkins]

Still, Lexit eh?

Got to make things fairer for African farmers.

Speaking of which;

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-tariffs-africa-ghana-farmers-b1766278.html

Farmers in Ghana will be hit with huge new tariffs on key exports including bananas and tuna, unless the country agrees to 'roll over' its existing trade deal, from the UK's EU membership, by the end of the month.

But its government has protested it would be forced to break a legal agreement with other West African countries – and has condemned the "take it or leave it" approach pursued by London.

Liz Truss, the trade secretary, has refused to allow existing trade terms to continue until the row can be settled, despite warnings of tens of thousands of "devastating" job losses in Ghana.

Was this what they had in mind? Threatening to destroy the Ghanaian economy if they don't roll over and give us what we want?

[idunnosomename]

I think this thread sums up the level of Brexit discourse in December 2020.

https://twitter.com/JamesRobvincent/status/1333525585419788288?s=19


What a time to be alive!

[George Oscar Bluth II]

I think this thread sums up the level of Brexit discourse in December 2020.

https://twitter.com/JamesRobvincent/status/1333525585419788288?s=19


What a time to be alive!

This is the thing isn't it, no country in the world has unfettered 100% sovereignty. Being a nation state among other nation states necessitates compromise. We can only take back a certain amount of 'control' and still function in the modern world. Why was this stuff never explained.

That's a red herring (geddit). It's the chance to fuck over employment rights that matters most.

Yeah been wondering what is actually being argued about among the 'level playing field' stuff.

[Cuellar]

And getting rid of pesky red tape around data protection.

[idunnosomename]

look, in a couple of years, we'll all be out on the trawler all day, then come home to our wives who've cooked us a delicious fish supper. and we will sya grace and thank BORIS JOHNSON are third GREATEST PRIME MINSTER ever for our glorious island's soverinty.

we will survive the days by sucking on are GREAT BRITISH fisherman's friends. we can also use neutrogena on our chapped hands because Norway isnt part of the EU and thus a great friend to are nation.

[Kankurette]

No deal coming.

All the shit will be the fault of Remainers if you're a leaver, or Corbyn if you're an FPBE centrist prick.

Already had one Lexiter blaming Remainer 'bedwetters' for not being accepting enough.

I don't know how Lexiters can square left-wing politics with Brexit fucking over loads of disabled and chronically ill people, but then I guess they think giving a shit about disabled people is identity politics or something.

[George Oscar Bluth II]

I can't wait to see the blame game because somehow this is not going to be the fault of the Conservative Party. My money is on the reaction being "throw Boris Johnson overboard, it's all his fault" but I might be wrong.

[jobotic]

Corbyn

[jobotic]

I see Farage is launching a war on cycle lanes now. Now that's yesterday's man.

[Fambo Number Mive]

I can't wait to see the blame game because somehow this is not going to be the fault of the Conservative Party. My money is on the reaction being "throw Boris Johnson overboard, it's all his fault" but I might be wrong.

I reckon that is what will happen. He'll be set for life once he stops being prime minister, the only question is if he will leave willingly in late 2021 for Sunak to take over. Will he want to be prime minister for a bit longer than May? Perhaps they will offer him a peerage for services to the super-rich.

[monkfromhavana]

I can't wait to see the blame game because somehow this is not going to be the fault of the Conservative Party. My money is on the reaction being "throw Boris Johnson overboard, it's all his fault" but I might be wrong.

1. EU
2. Jeremy Corbyn
3. Muslims
4. Immigrants
5. Single mothers
6. 'Marxists'

[jobotic]

7. public sector

[dissolute ocelot]

Boris should call the EU's bluff and ban all commercial net fishing in British waters. Once British people realise that cans of tuna aren't actually landed by British trawlermen in Whitby, and most other fish they eat is likewise imported (prawns, cod, salmon, sardines, fancy crap) or farmed (other salmon), nobody will care, the fish will be happy, Greenpeace will be happy, and the French will be mildly inconvenienced. Look, I've saved Brexit.