Topic: Baseball 2021 - we defy you to care

[FerriswheelBueller]

True, and I'd like to keep him. But with his contract ending after this season it will also depend on how well the Cubs do whether or not he stays. The White Sox are apparently interested.

I hadn’t thought about it before, but I bet staying in the same city/region is a big draw because you don’t have to uproot your family.

[El Unicornio, mang]

Yeah that would sweeten the deal. I guess also the difference with the US vs say English football is that you could go somewhere completely different culturally and climate wise. I'd be more enthusiastic about being traded to, say, the SF Giants than the Kansas City Royals based on those factors.

Chicago's a great city but April can be cold enough to snow, not the weather you want to kick the season off with.

[FerriswheelBueller]

So the Jays won 2 of 3 against the Yankees, Merryweather looks a ridiculously good pickup (worried about that TJ surgery though...), and maybe it’ll all be ok.

I’ll mention Beat The Streak here, a free to play app (that isn’t full of fucking adverts or whatever) which is ostensibly run by MLB but it seems to me they keep it quiet because... well...

So you pick a hitter each day to get a hit. You can double down and pick 2 a day if you like, and the UI lets you customize your selection so you can pick out hot hitters in games against pitchers they have historically hit well against.

Pick 56 in a row (one more than DiMaggio’s hit streak, hence the app name) and you win $5.6m USD. It’ll never happen obviously, but it’s free to play, your hits roll over (so if you miss a day or a month you keep your streak), and you have a good chance of just winning stuff for no reason (I got a load of discount codes last few seasons off MLB merch which is already overpriced but whatever). Worth a look if you’re interested.

Jays the first team to break in the new Globe Life Park in Texas. Would be delighted if they walloped the Rangers.

[El Unicornio, mang]

Ooh, I'll have a go at that. It's also reminded me that I forgot to set up a fantasy baseball team this year.

I watched some of the Blue Jays v Rangers game last night, looks like a solid team. Cubs 3-1 so things looking OK at the moment.

[FerriswheelBueller]

Who did the Cubs pick up over the break? I suppose Rizzo/Baez/Bryant are still there and with no one else that’s the core of a very good team regardless.

My streak up to 4 now, beat that!

[El Unicornio, mang]

Not much of note. Jake Arietta's back with the Cubs, signed a one-year deal. But he's been nowhere near the Cy Young winner of 2015 in the past few years.

Otherwise seems like we're hoping for the aforementioned three to have a good year, and some prospects in the long run.

[FerriswheelBueller]

Cards are making a bit of a play for the NL Central right? I saw they robbed the Rockies blind for Arenado, and the Pirates are there for everyone to pad their stats so that’s nice of them. Who else is in there, Reds? They’re a strange one - Votto is a generational talent and they picked up Castellanos but don’t seem inclined to do anything else. Brewers also seem to have stalled after Yelich’s mad season a year or two ago.

I don’t know enough about the NL central to comment much further really, but sounds like you might have enough to win a pennant?

Hot BTS News - I have Escobar and Abreu down for bits today. Will try and get the streak to 6. I think my personal best is like 14 or 15 so let’s see!

[El Unicornio, mang]

NL Central is pretty competitive, could realistically be won by anyone (aside from the Pirates, who are probably the worst team in baseball). Brewers are slight favourites though.

OK I've set up my Beat the Streak for the next few days. Is it better to pick 2 or 1 per day? I've got one of your fellas, Bo Bichette, down for today.

[FerriswheelBueller]

I usually go aggressive and double down every day unless there aren’t any good candidates. I also do the custom filter thing and look for batters who have faced the pitcher before and done well and try for a sample size of at bats greater than 10 (going 1 for 1 for a batter against a pitcher is great, but I’d rather take a batter who has gone 12 for 16 or whatever) and batters at the top of the order so they’re more likely to get 5 at bats - if there’s nobody that fits those criteria or only one, I’ll pick the one or skip the day.

Looking at Bichette, he’s a great hitter no question (and he doesn’t take a lot of walks - that’s good because they don’t count as hits) but it looks like he hasn’t faced that pitcher before (and I don’t recognize his name) so he might be a new guy? I stay away from them - newer pitchers typically do well their first few starts because batters don’t know them so their release point and arm angles are mysteries that have to be figured out on the fly, and typically team scouting reports are patchy on them until at least a few MLB starts for pitch types and velo.

That could be complete nonsense, so take my input with the requisite pinch of salt. If anyone will knock him around (and this crop of Jays are sluggers no question) it’d be Bo. He has a great eye and his contact/spray chart is ridiculous so he’s a pretty good choice any day of the week.

[El Unicornio, mang]

Cool, sounds fun, although I don't think I could handle the stress of getting to 55 in a row and then my batter not getting a hit.

[FerriswheelBueller]

Don’t worry, no one ever gets close. One person got to 40 a few years back and everyone lost their minds.

If a batter got a hit 70% of the time and you needed 56 in a row, your chances are ~0.0000002% of winning (or about 1 in 500 million). If they “only” hit .300 then your chances are astronomically small. Although that isn’t right is it, because they don’t need 56 hits in a row, just a hit in 56 games in a row. If you assume a league average hitter batting .250 and getting at least one hit in (say) each “set” of 4 at bats (representing a game)...

That said, I guess every gameday has at least a few dozen players getting a hit, so probably a better check on win probability is to define the number of possible batters that could be selected by a player each day (1 from any of the 9 players for each of the 30 teams plus pinch hitters = 1/~300 if just selecting randomly), the likelihood of each one being picked, and the probability of the more popular batters recording a hit...

I can’t think about this too much because I have work to do, but it would be an interesting exercise to figure out the odds of winning. Fuck all, is the take home message.

[BlodwynPig]

I'm on 55, putting it all on Biggio tomorrow!

[FerriswheelBueller]

Money in the bank toilet.

[BlodwynPig]

Money in the bank toilet.

He just needs one hit.

[FerriswheelBueller]

He just needs one hit.

Like a demented punter at the bookies, surrounded by broken tiny pencils and crumpled betting slips.

“Just need one more... to come in big...”

[FerriswheelBueller]

(I’m kidding obviously)

Have you been watching the Jays? They’re actually exciting and fun to watch this year.

Does MLB.tv work in the UK? I bet you could stream for free maybe?

[BlodwynPig]

(I’m kidding obviously)

Have you been watching the Jays? They’re actually exciting and fun to watch this year.

Does MLB.tv work in the UK? I bet you could stream for free maybe?

Looks like it might work - for 109 dollars!

Anyway, I'm doing a rewatch of The Shield so that occupies my time - maybe will catch a weekend game for old times sake. ps. they were exciting the two games we saw, I thought - great entertainment.

[FerriswheelBueller]

Looks like it might work - for 109 dollars!

Anyway, I'm doing a rewatch of The Shield so that occupies my time - maybe will catch a weekend game for old times sake. ps. they were exciting the two games we saw, I thought - great entertainment.

Yeah and that was when they were a bag of shit - imagine how much fun it is when they’re decent!

I was suckered into baseball in 2015 when the Jays were a terrific team and I’m still jonesing for my excellent baseball fix 6 years later. When baseball is good, it’s really good.

[BlodwynPig]

Fuck it - lost out on the 56! Knew I should have gone with Bichette!

[FerriswheelBueller]

Just saw Bo hit two dingers last night!

You love to see it.

[El Unicornio, mang]

I got 2, yay! Bichette and Betts. Hey this is easy, 56 here i come!

[FerriswheelBueller]

I got 2, yay! Bichette and Betts. Hey this is easy, 56 here i come!

It’s super easy, looks like we’ll both be millionaires by June. Both my guys got a hit, streak extended to 6.

[Dex Sawash]

I'm super excited about this 56 thing. Will give it a go this winter when there are fewer distractions.

[Famous Mortimer]

It's tough to say with the Cardinals. Their pitching could fall apart quite easily, but their position players are looking solid-to-decent. I'm looking forward to the season, though.

[BlodwynPig]

Season falling apart already :(

[El Unicornio, mang]

Well, I'm up to six on Beat the Meat, but I've just noticed that the prize money is only available to US/Canada residents, and I gave up my US residency 2 years ago :-(

[FerriswheelBueller]

Well, I'm up to six on Beat the Meat, but I've just noticed that the prize money is only available to US/Canada residents, and I gave up my US residency 2 years ago :-(

Oh no, looks like you’ll have to give your millions to me.

(Aside: it’s all coming together!)

[Bernice]

Watched a repeat of yesterday's Mets Marlins game while I was working today, and very much enjoyed the ninth inning where the Mets came from 2-1 down to take the game with a very controversial Walk-off win, thanks to Michael Conforto quite deliberately putting his elbow in front of a perfectly good pitch. It's a mark of how much I'm enjoying having a new sport to follow that the sort of hand-wringing over officiating that I find utterly tedious in footy has been a glory to behold. It seems that a challenge can only say whether or not the ball actually hit the batter, which it did. Arbitrary nonsense. Glorious.

[FerriswheelBueller]

Watched a repeat of yesterday's Mets Marlins game while I was working today, and very much enjoyed the ninth inning where the Mets came from 2-1 down to take the game with a very controversial Walk-off win, thanks to Michael Conforto quite deliberately putting his elbow in front of a perfectly good pitch. It's a mark of how much I'm enjoying having a new sport to follow that the sort of hand-wringing over officiating that I find utterly tedious in footy has been a glory to behold. It seems that a challenge can only say whether or not the ball actually hit the batter, which it did. Arbitrary nonsense. Glorious.

I didn’t know that a pitch that hits a batter is a called strike if it is in the zone, though that seems obvious in hindsight.

Proper shithousing getting that called a HBP, but Kulpa is a fucking terrible umpire, up there (down there?) with Joe west and Angel Hernandez for me.

[Famous Mortimer]

My workplace has a Div 3 baseball team, and they're apparently doing rather well at the moment. I found out that they actually stream games with commentary, but rather delightfully the broadcast is a slightly muffled commentary over a standard-definition webcam placed behind the plate. There's a game happening right now, and there was just what seemed to be a pretty exciting play at 2nd completely obscured by the catcher and ump.

Re: MLB, though, it looks like they're already investigating Bauer for using foreign substances. Good.