Scottish Politics: Douglas Ross' Magic Roundabout

[dissolute ocelot]

A bit of a Tory decline but who do sad tories vote for???

No Loz Fox here

[the hum]

The Dumfriesshire Cat surely?

[the hum]

Looks like the Tories are doing disproportionately well on the list vote. Greens looking good in Glasgow, but a bit meh everywhere else so far. SNP and Labour down everywhere. Alba won't win any seats, but it looks like they're biting enough into the SNP vote to potentially do some damage.

[jobotic]

Because the more constituency seats you win the less likely you are to win lists seats, as the latter act as correctionals to ensure the final result is more proportional in parliament to the way people actually voted. e.g. the SNP will probably win every constituency seat in Glasgow with 40-50% of the vote, but that still leaves the other 50% of voters unrepresented, hence the list. SNP won't take any Glasgow list seats because they've already had their share via the constituencies. Where it gets harder to predict is in regions like South of Scotland, Highlands, Lothian, where SNP aren't mopping up the constituency seats, but are winning enough of them to mean they (probably) won't pick up enough, or any, on the list to form a majority.

Thanks.

[NattyDread 2]

Kate Forbes returned in my seat with a 16,000 majority.

And mine. Tremendous result, soured slightly by the tories coming second with nearly 20% of the vote. Bams!

[greencalx]

By my count, if none of the remaining constituency seats change hands we're looking at SNP being three seats short of a majority? Is it feasible they'll pick those up on the list? I guess we're looking at the South, NE and Lothian regions as those where they might be up for grabs.

[greencalx]

To answer my own question, the SNP netted 3 seats from the S Scotland list in '16, so this does seem to be in the realms of possibility. The Tory majority in Aberdeen W was pretty tight as well (900 votes). Bit of a nailbiter!

[greencalx]

Gah, Aberdeen W Con majority increased to 3000...

[jobotic]

Bugger. So that's that on a majority?

[greencalx]

Hard to tell. Curtice says there's "no conceivable" path but doesn't show his working. I'm assuming something like this. The remaining 4 constituencies will all be SNP, so that leaves them on 62. The E Lothian SNP gain probably means that there will be a corresponding loss on the list in the S Scotland region. That would provide 2 more seats, 1 away from a majority. There was talk of a possible SNP list seat in Highlands and Islands (I think) but that's not due in until midnight. So Curtice must be assuming either that this a non-starter, or that they stand only to get 1 seat in the S Scotland list. Apparently Tory support is generally up, which might be reflected in the list.

[greencalx]

BBC is projecting 63 seats, which implies they are expecting a single list seat. I'd have to know the list percentages to figure out why they thing that... Either that, or one of Ed N&Leith, Ed E, Midlothian and G Kelvin isn't actually being defended by the SNP, but I thought they all were.

[greencalx]

Ah, the Ayr gain was also in the S Scotland region, so that probably means that there's only two opportunities for an SNP list seat, and Curtice et al are expecting only one of them to come to fruition. 63 likely, 64 in principle possible, 65 does look out-of-reach. In practice, I doubt one or two seats off a majority makes much difference. The SNP certainly don't seem to think so, and regard this already as a mandate for another referendum (despite being coy about that in the campaigning). A majority would have made it harder for Boris to ignore.

[privatefriend]

Are there any pro-independence & pro-socialism (not necessarily pro-snp) resources/podcasts/whatever worth engaging with? Akin to zero books/chapo/jacobin for the UK that isn't labour/Corbyn focussed.

[greencalx]

Common Weal is progressive pro-indy but not particularly pro-SNP https://commonweal.scot - don't know much else about them though.

The Highlands list has added one more to the SNP tally, now sitting at 63. Labour list seat fallen to Green in Central.

[dissolute ocelot]

Common Weal is progressive pro-indy but not particularly pro-SNP https://commonweal.scot - don't know much else about them though.

The Highlands list has added one more to the SNP tally, now sitting at 63. Labour list seat fallen to Green in Central.

Common Weal are kind of TERFy, links to the Joanna Cherry faction of the SNP, and hostile to Sturgeon on those grounds.  Their long-time boss Robin McAlpine recently got in bother for accusing trans people of being sex criminals or something, although they are apparently now trying to be more inclusive.

[privatefriend]

Don't know much about them but will have a look, had thought there was something vaguely off-putting about the name for some reason. Think they have some kind of office in Kinning park near me.

[greencalx]

Ah, sorry, wasn't aware of that.

[ajsmith2]

SNP end up with 64 seats. One short of a majority.

[jobotic]

So that sack of shit Salmond got nowhere. How did Galloway get on?

[Garam]

Well fucking done to SNP, you can always count on the Scots to say fuck you to the tories.

Sturgeon come out and saying well done to standing up to racists and fascists, and they're winning. Almost as if being 'woke' means fuck all, Labour.

Tories are the second biggest party in Scotland, the SNP voted with the Tories against Tenancy rights during a pandemic and one of the newly elected SNP MPs got a dig in at trans rights during their acceptance speech. Give me a fucking break.

[bgmnts]

Tories are the second biggest party in Scotland, the SNP voted with the Tories against Tenancy rights during a pandemic and one of the newly elected SNP MPs got a dig in at trans rights during their acceptance speech. Give me a fucking break.

Well yeah but they're not the biggest.

[canadagoose]

So that sack of shit Salmond got nowhere. How did Galloway get on?

Lost. Hahaha

[Fabian Thomsett]

SNP end up with 64 seats. One short of a majority.

Calling it. Scotland ain't getting no referendum.

[canadagoose]

Calling it. Scotland ain't getting no referendum.

There are 72 pro-indy seats, though, so...

See also: https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1391143568006422528

[canadagoose]

Anyway, I'm satisfied with the result locally, even though Greens didn't come second in Edinburgh North & Leith we still beat the Tories into fourth place. Two Green seats in Lothian region is good enough for me.

[greencalx]

It now seems to be established as fact that the only reason for not voting SNP is because you're a union-jack waving, orange-marching, queen-fucking Tory Unionist.

[canadagoose]

It now seems to be established as fact that the only reason for not voting SNP is because you're a union-jack waving, orange-marching, queen-fucking Tory Unionist.

Well, I didn't vote SNP. I assume my bowler hat and sash are in the post.

[greencalx]

:) Sorry, was a bit grumpy this morning reading some of the so-called analysis which seemed to take the line that who you vote for is fully determined by which side of the independence fence you sit, and contrariwise, you can read off the support from independence from the election result. Given this, and the total disdain for people who switch allegiance between elections, I've started wondering why we have the bloody things at all. Let's just say you can vote once in your life and leave it at that.

Moving on... how do we expect things to pan out from here? I fear that the prospect of IndyRef2 may have become entangled with the SNP securing a majority somewhere along the line (if not by the SNP themselves then by getting lost in translation). Boris is going to oppose it anyway, so probably this is an irrelevant consideration. What's the game plan? From here it's looking like a game of brinkmanship, whereby the SNP threaten to go to the courts and expect Boris to cave before it gets that far.

[canadagoose]

:) Sorry, was a bit grumpy this morning reading some of the so-called analysis which seemed to take the line that who you vote for is fully determined by which side of the independence fence you sit, and contrariwise, you can read off the support from independence from the election result. Given this, and the total disdain for people who switch allegiance between elections, I've started wondering why we have the bloody things at all. Let's just say you can vote once in your life and leave it at that.

Moving on... how do we expect things to pan out from here? I fear that the prospect of IndyRef2 may have become entangled with the SNP securing a majority somewhere along the line (if not by the SNP themselves then by getting lost in translation). Boris is going to oppose it anyway, so probably this is an irrelevant consideration. What's the game plan? From here it's looking like a game of brinkmanship, whereby the SNP threaten to go to the courts and expect Boris to cave before it gets that far.

God only knows. At this stage I think I've accepted I can't really change whatever happens, so I'll just watch and see what Sturgeon has up her sleeve.

[the hum]

Rather shitty outcome from the Glasgow list result from the looks of things; the Greens were within 1,000 votes of pipping the Tories to the final seat, but known fascist Alistair "Manky Jaiket" McConnachie stood as "Independent Green Voice" and garnered over 2,000 votes. Not sure if I buy the line that a sufficient number of potential Green voters were actually confused enough by it to cross the wrong box (and McConnachie is a well known figure amongst the ultra yoons anyway), but it does give pause for thought...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_(Scottish_Parliament_electoral_region)#2021_Scottish_Parliament_election

Also looking at the above, either a big coincidence, or all five of the Reform UK candidates are from the same family. Christmas must be a unique level of desolation.