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Scottish Politics: Douglas Ross' Magic Roundabout

Started by canadagoose, January 26, 2021, 09:59:13 PM

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Rizla


the hum

Is it really worth listening to though? I've got a pretty dim view of Contercast - a lot of libertarian types I know seem to wax lyrical about them. Definite whiff of horseshoe theory.

Rizla

Quote from: the hum on April 23, 2021, 10:22:07 PM
Is it really worth listening to though? I've got a pretty dim view of Contercast - a lot of libertarian types I know seem to wax lyrical about them. Definite whiff of horseshoe theory.
Cool. Why not have a listen and make up your own mind?

canadagoose

#64
The last time I listened to a Cuntercast I almost flung my mouse across the room in annoyance (cheers David Jamieson), and as you'll know I'm not exactly a fan of "BPB", so it's a no from me, sorry. I'd read a transcript though, I guess.

Edit : changed my mind, might as well give it a rage-listen. Not like I'm doing anything important today.

Edit 2: not starting well, having a wee rant about Robertson being chosen over Ch*rry. The worst kind of careerist, eh? I think bigotry is worse personally. Says he doesn't have any skin in the game but aye right, I've seen his Twitter.

Edit 3: Hahaha I'm pissing myself at his characterization of Robertson. "he's more for Stockbridge, New Town, Murrayfield, and I would meet my target in Dumbiedykes, Dalry and Gorgie" Yeah sure pal

Edit 4: Tbf he has a point about the gentrification of the city centre, but if he's on about George St he's a bit behind the times surely? Been gentrified for decades now.

Edit 5: "you've got wide-eyed interns from the States... This is Scotland!" Fuck's that supposed to mean? If the point was that they're young and experienced, just say that. (Funny coming from him though. I don't think he's been elected before?)

Edit 6: OK, bit after is a bit better, about neoliberalism etc. Not sure he's right about why RISE failed though.

Edit 7: Kind of given up. To be fair to him, he comes across better in this interview than he does in his videos, and he does have good points about capitalism etc. I'm not really sure I like him still (that transphobic tweet lingers in my mind, as well as some other not so great opinions), but there you go.

greencalx

Brief observations on campaign messaging.

Tories doing everything they can to not admit to being Tories. Leaflets avoid anything blue. Party name in the tiniest font you can possibly imagine. Also front cover trying to look like a more generic leaflet about the election rather than campaign literature.

SNP doing everything they can to not mention the I word. Bizarre, as I thought that was their flagship policy. Maybe it's because of where I live - strong No & Remain in 2014/16 - that the only mention of independence is in the context of rejoining the EU. Facebook ads equally weird. I'm guessing FB has me down as pro-EU and anti-Boris based on the ads I'm getting. There's one that says "don't let Boris win here". Given he's not even standing that's just bizarre.

Labour making it all about Sarwar. Can't see that going wrong.

All of them - even the Tories - making offers that were derided in a recent election. UBI. Four-day week. Major investment in broadband infrastructure. More rail. I could go on.

Blinder Data

Quote from: greencalx on April 26, 2021, 09:05:40 PM
SNP doing everything they can to not mention the I word. Bizarre, as I thought that was their flagship policy. Maybe it's because of where I live - strong No & Remain in 2014/16 - that the only mention of independence is in the context of rejoining the EU. Facebook ads equally weird. I'm guessing FB has me down as pro-EU and anti-Boris based on the ads I'm getting. There's one that says "don't let Boris win here". Given he's not even standing that's just bizarre.

Well, that's been their strategy for a while: appear as the most competent bunch of lads, liberal, pro-EU, stuff that plays well across Scotland - and then take those votes as tacit approval of their indy stance. I've met people who don't want independence and vote SNP!

I really want to fast forward to 6 May now. Can't see anything exciting happening till then, which suits Sturgeon. Only points of interest for me are whether the SNP actually get their majority, whether Labour supplants Tories in! second and the fate of Big Eck

Rizla

Is it not obvious that the SNP have no interest in independence, now that they have thoroughly ensconced themselves as the political establishment of the country? Far too much to lose now. A fact that the electorate will have to come to terms with one day. We've been had. Still, they're not a bad lot to be governed by, if ye kin handle the auld neoliberalism oan yir porridge.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/26/trident-overseas-or-halted-scotland-independence I mean, look at this shit. Out of NATO? Doubt it.


canadagoose

Quote from: Blinder Data on April 26, 2021, 09:33:32 PM
and the fate of Big Eck
I expect he'll be elected, but hopefully not too many more of his daft goons get into Holyrood. Bloody horrible bunch.

Blinder Data

Quote from: Rizla on April 26, 2021, 10:14:54 PM
Is it not obvious that the SNP have no interest in independence, now that they have thoroughly ensconced themselves as the political establishment of the country?

The SNP only have one more shot at a referendum and if they lose it, they are toast, so it makes sense for them to wait for the ideal circumstances. Opinion polls suggest it's more-or-less a 50/50 split at the moment, but the under-40s tend to be warmer towards indy. If they wait to grow their base of supporters and for Scotland to have truly had enough of the Tories/Brexit, they stand a much better chance of sneaking it over the line (if the next referendum is held on a simple majority rule). Playing the role of the competent political establishment helps to mainstream the cause of independence too.

To push hard for an indyref or even UDI now - especially anything that looks like it wouldn't be seen as legitimate internationally - would torpedo the chances of independence for a long time.

canadagoose

What's everyone voting then? I promise I won't poke at you.

canadagoose

Just going to do a couple of heavily-East-Coast-biased predictions, let's see how far off I am (now with bonus colour):

* Edinburgh Northern & Leith (mine) - thumping SNP hold, possibly the biggest majority in the Lothians. I hope for personal reasons that the Greens' Lorna Slater make some in-roads, though. I also expect a strong performance from them in Glasgow Kelvin.

* Edinburgh Southern - narrow Lab hold, with tactical voting to keep the SNP out being the biggest factor - although I hear Daniel Johnson, the Labour candidate, is popular locally.

* Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire (where I'm from) - pissing Con hold. Because the Union and because "A deh wa't a bloody hard border".

* Aberdeen Central - another big SNP hold, and I think it might be by the biggest margin in Scotland. See also Westminster seat Aberdeen North, Labour's old northern stronghold, but where they could just weigh SNP votes as of late.

* Dumfriesshire - narrow SNP gain for the loathsome Joan McAlpine. UGH

the hum

Quote from: canadagoose on April 28, 2021, 07:44:42 PM
What's everyone voting then? I promise I won't poke at you.

SNP constituency for sure, but big dilemma with my list vote. Really, really want to vote Green for the first time, but it's complicated by being in the Highland list region - SNP have realistic chance of a list seat, Greens have slightly less realistic chance of taking two. SNP have been shite on land reform and that's obviously a big issue in this part of the country, so that should point me towards the Greens, BUT I've been quite impressed with what I've heard from SNP's lead list candidate Emma Roddick. Also, Alba might do relatively well here, thus I need to cast my vote in the best manner to fuck up their chances, so that might mean SNP list...or it could mean Green. Arrrrggghhh.

dissolute ocelot

The leaflets are really piling up.

Alba is all about independence, in total contrast to the SNP. Are their MSPs not planning to vote on anything else?

Reform UK (formerly Brexit Party) seem reasonable with lots of nice policies like improving conditions for NHS staff, more play-based learning and greater autonomy for teachers, more power for local government. But they lead on opposition to the Hate Speech Act. Which maybe isn't perfect, but they really want to do some hate speech? And very anti lockdown.

Scottish Family Party (fundamentalist Christian) is both vague and terrifying: Academic Rigour, anti abortion and euthanasia, anti Transgender Ideology, Free Speech, and lots of valuing Families. But no actual policies.

Blinder Data

Quote from: canadagoose on April 28, 2021, 07:44:42 PM
What's everyone voting then? I promise I won't poke at you.

For my sins I remain a member so it's Labour all the way. But this is possibly the first election where my duty to go red doesn't give me any pause for thought. I'm warmer to independence than the status quo but frankly I don't want a referendum in the next parliament. Pretty simple, really.


dissolute ocelot

Quote from: the hum on April 30, 2021, 10:03:04 AM
Are they though?
I'm only commenting on their election leaflet (which is a very detailed explanation of the Supermajority strategy). Fuck knows what their wider plans are. It's a bit concerning that they don't claim to have policies on anything else.

Sebastian Cobb

It's a horrid day out today but that didn't seem to stop the SNP driving about in a ~10 car precession, complete with loud-hailer blairing from one of the cars. Completely unintelligible and they weren't hanging around.

canadagoose

Quote from: Sebastian Cobb on May 03, 2021, 03:24:51 PM
It's a horrid day out today but that didn't seem to stop the SNP driving about in a ~10 car precession, complete with loud-hailer blairing from one of the cars. Completely unintelligible and they weren't hanging around.
Sounds marginally preferable to the Alba fleggery that has been infecting Edinburgh recently.

Sebastian Cobb

That's grim. I can't really say how well they're doing round Glasgow, I've not seen anything but not left my bit much and I think they'd probably stick sticker nearer to the centre anyway. I nearly used phrases like "more vibrant" or "more cosmopolitan" then but that didn't sound right because it felt like I was implying tacit support, we just don't get much political stickering of any party or general cause happening.

Dr Trouser

Going by last time, the only chance to unseat the snp is to vote conservative. I can't bring myself to do it.

Think I'll just fuck it off to be honest.


canadagoose

Quote from: Sebastian Cobb on May 03, 2021, 05:27:48 PM
That's grim. I can't really say how well they're doing round Glasgow, I've not seen anything but not left my bit much and I think they'd probably stick sticker nearer to the centre anyway. I nearly used phrases like "more vibrant" or "more cosmopolitan" then but that didn't sound right because it felt like I was implying tacit support, we just don't get much political stickering of any party or general cause happening.
It's hard to tell, isn't it. I have a lot of Green folk on my Twitter but it's heavily LGBTQIA biased so it's probably not a fair reflection of the wider populace.

Sebastian Cobb

Yeah political opinion and political opinion online feels like two different worlds.


dissolute ocelot

Just got a flyer from All For Unity, George Galloway's latest attempt at whatever it is he does. He's still got the hat, at least. 2 months ago, he was criticising Humza Yousaf for not having pure Celtic blood, so it looks like you can add white supremacism to antisemitism, rape apologism, friend of tyrants, hugger of Steve Bannon, and all the other charges.

They're claiming that the best way to oppose Scottish independence is to vote Tory, LibDem, or Lab for constituency and A4U on the party list, which is simply not a true statement. Labour, the Tories, and Lib Dems are all going to pick up most of their MSPs from the party lists, while all the polls say A4U will pick up nothing except mud.

And naturally they're very upset about the Hate Crime Act. Because, see above.

Old Nehamkin

#85
I was getting chips in Govanhill last night and I was handed a flyer by (I think) the leader of anti-lockdown party Freedom Alliance. She looked pretty miserable. It says on the flyer that she knows what she's talking about because she's a "scientist and clinician" but I looked her up and it turns out she is more specifically a veterinarian. Does feel like the whole angle is a bit of a busted flush at this point of time when everything is in the process of opening up anyway and the lockdown isn't really being enforced to any meaningful degree but I guess the vaccine rollout is still a contentious quasi-culture-war battleground for many.

Probably going to be a boring old SNP/Green vote for me tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see how the bbc alba party end up doing as I'm getting the vague anecdotal impression that their emergence has struck a certain chord with older/more socially conservative indy supporters. Then again that anecdotal impression doesn't really go much further than me hearing that my mum has been persuaded to give them her list vote on tactical grounds by several of her indy-supporting friends and relatives. It does feel like there's a pretty strong age-divide in the pro-indy sphere above and below say the late 40s in terms of their receptiveness to Alba's messaging though.

canadagoose

Quote from: Old Nehamkin on May 05, 2021, 01:44:05 PM
I was getting chips in Govanhill last night and I was handed a flyer by (I think) the leader of anti-lockdown party Freedom Alliance. She looked pretty miserable. It says on the flyer that she knows what she's talking about because she's a "scientist and clinician" but I looked her up and it turns out she is more specifically a veterinarian. Does feel like the whole angle is a bit of a busted flush at this point of time when everything is in the process of opening up anyway and the lockdown isn't really being enforced to any meaningful degree but I guess the vaccine rollout is still a contentious quasi-culture-war battleground for many.

Probably going to be a boring old SNP/Green vote for me tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see how the bbc alba party end up doing as I'm getting the vague anecdotal impression that their emergence has struck a certain chord with older/more socially conservative indy supporters. Then again that anecdotal impression doesn't really go much further than me hearing that my mum has been persuaded to give them her list vote on tactical grounds by several of her indy-supporting friends and relatives. It does feel like there's a pretty strong age-divide in the pro-indy sphere above and below say the late 40s in terms of their receptiveness to Alba's messaging though.
To be honest, I think Alba might pick up 3 or 4 seats. It'll be an "interesting" few years with them in parliament, by which I mean "shite".

I'm keeping my eye on 2nd place in Edinburgh Northern and Leith. Can the Greens pip Labour to the post? Also 2nd place in Edinburgh Central will be interesting.

canadagoose


greencalx

Quote from: canadagoose on May 05, 2021, 07:14:59 PM
Also do check out the latest in Willie Rennie!!!! action:

https://twitter.com/monehchickens/status/1389650921068666897

My wife will add this to her collection. The one thing to be said about a Scottish election campaign is that Willie Rennie never misses an opportunity for a daft PR stunt.

As for me, I genuinely don't know how I'll vote tomorrow. The constituency ticket is uninspiring: three centrists (Lab, LD and SNP), forum favourite Miles "Bloated Rodent" Briggs batting for the Tories and a Scottish Family Values nutter whose approach to promoting Family Values is to taser your kids if they've not done their homework. I suppose if I was bothered one way or the other about Indy that would make it easier, but I have neither any kind of attachment to The Union or any real expectation that independence will unleash a torrent of progressive politics. I guess I'd rather have Labour - even Starmwar-style Labour - in second place over the Tories, so maybe I'll hold my nose and vote for them.

Or I could soil my ballot. (Voting in person, so that option is at least open).

the hum

Quote from: canadagoose on May 05, 2021, 06:56:18 PM
To be honest, I think Alba might pick up 3 or 4 seats. It'll be an "interesting" few years with them in parliament, by which I mean "shite".

I still think Salmond's "profile" might be enough to squeak him a seat in the North East, but anything beyond that is going to require some wild regional variations. Only other real possibility is in H&I, but there's likely a big squeeze on there for the final list seat between them, SNP, a second Green, and Andy Wightman (which might ultimately end up letting in another Tory).

And it'll likely be Saturday afternoon before we find out.