Author Topic: The Case for a Zero Covid UK  (Read 2036 times)

mobias

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The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« on: February 13, 2021, 03:38:33 PM »
The more I read about going for a zero covid strategy the more I think its the only way out of the pandemic for this country and it beggars belief that the government aren't pursuing it. I know some scientists think its unrealistic and certainly most tories think its ridiculous to even consider it. But why? Its so obviously worked in other countries like Australia and New Zealand. Part of me thinks this government aren't even considering it simply on the grounds that a whole load of left leaning scientists are promoting it. There's a fascinating case for zero covid really well laid out in this twitter thread https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1360579055465152515
That lady also points out that scientists who promote a zero covid policy are getting turned away from appearing on the BBC. Presumably on the grounds that the Beeb are too scared challenging government policy. Its really fucking depressing. 

Yes we would have to have the mother of all lockdowns and yes we would have to close our borders, possibly for quite a long time. The upside though is that on the otherside you'd be able to open up life again really pretty quickly. Instead we're going to get for a half baked approach that will inevitably see more variants and vaccines which don't work well, or perhaps even not at all.   

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2021, 04:40:47 PM »
The middle classes and Shoulders spotted leaving England in small boats on cloudy nights, picnic hampers and guidebooks stowed carefully on board.

Gunshipped to smithereens as they attempt to return 2 weeks later.

Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2021, 04:46:22 PM »
If we took this approach 12 months ago then we would have been in a great position now.

I'm not sure how realistic an aim it is now that the virus has spread to all corners of the country. The lockdown rules just aren't followed well enough and test and trace is so piss weak that it just wouldn't logistically be possible.

mobias

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2021, 05:05:32 PM »

I'm not sure how realistic an aim it is now that the virus has spread to all corners of the country. The lockdown rules just aren't followed well enough and test and trace is so piss weak that it just wouldn't logistically be possible.

Yeah thats the issue. Like I said you would have to have the mother of all lockdowns, potentially even stricter than last spring, that would bring case numbers right down to an incredibly small amount, even smaller than we opened up with last July. But the trade off is life back to normal really very quickly afterwards and it would stay that way. Or at least it would if we had anything approaching a competent government that could run an effective track and trace system. 

I do wonder if we will end up doing it anyway because we'll be forced into a position where we basically have to. A new variant that was even more contagious and for which the vaccines didn't work would get us there. Thats not impossible and some might argue is actually inevitable if we keep the virus circulating at too high a level. 

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2021, 06:50:25 PM »
by normal, you mean...?

Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2021, 09:30:46 PM »
We'd have to live in literal solitary confinement for months, the borders would have to be closed permanently, and the amount of collateral damage to health and economy would be off the scale. And to maintain the situation, miserable, life wrecking restrictions would need to be in place forever. It's completely impractical. The only reason Australia and New Zealand have fared quite well is that they're sparsely populated and have relatively low levels of international traffic. Their situation isn't sustainable since they're going to have to open their borders at some point.

buttgammon

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2021, 10:21:48 PM »

chveik

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2021, 10:23:54 PM »
by normal, you mean...?

laqer and wanks all round!

Vitalstatistix

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2021, 11:42:42 PM »
We'd have to live in literal solitary confinement for months, the borders would have to be closed permanently, and the amount of collateral damage to health and economy would be off the scale. And to maintain the situation, miserable, life wrecking restrictions would need to be in place forever. It's completely impractical. The only reason Australia and New Zealand have fared quite well is that they're sparsely populated and have relatively low levels of international traffic. Their situation isn't sustainable since they're going to have to open their borders at some point.

Yeah. And Hanoi, Taipei, Beijing and Bangkok are sparsely populated too. Just a few sheep farmers knocking around last time I checked.

Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2021, 02:45:15 AM »
We'd have to live in literal solitary confinement for months, the borders would have to be closed permanently, and the amount of collateral damage to health and economy would be off the scale. And to maintain the situation, miserable, life wrecking restrictions would need to be in place forever. It's completely impractical. The only reason Australia and New Zealand have fared quite well is that they're sparsely populated and have relatively low levels of international traffic. Their situation isn't sustainable since they're going to have to open their borders at some point.


Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #10 on: February 14, 2021, 05:35:01 AM »
It's completely impractical. The only reason Australia and New Zealand have fared quite well is that they're not full of selfish cunts who think money and entitlement are worth more than actual human lives.

Yes, I quite agree, well put.

Birdie

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #11 on: February 14, 2021, 06:38:42 AM »
Well, NZ has three community cases of COVID19 so Auckland goes into Level 3 from midnight for three days and the rest of the country goes to Level 2.  I can't imagine what it must be like in the UK at the moment. I talk to my 91 year old mum each night and she's effectively been in lockdown since last March - there was a brief period when she could go out and visit her hairdresser etc.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #12 on: February 14, 2021, 08:05:43 AM »
We'd have to live in literal solitary confinement for months, the borders would have to be closed permanently, and the amount of collateral damage to health and economy would be off the scale. And to maintain the situation, miserable, life wrecking restrictions would need to be in place forever. It's completely impractical. The only reason Australia and New Zealand have fared quite well is that they're sparsely populated and have relatively low levels of international traffic. Their situation isn't sustainable since they're going to have to open their borders at some point.

If you still hold this view then I'm afraid you relinquish all right to be treated with respect and dignity, a bit like the 150,000 UK citizens your ideology has sentenced to death. Biowaste.

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #13 on: February 14, 2021, 08:38:45 AM »
I wouldnt wish covid on my worst enemy

I wish covid on wanking monk

mobias

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #14 on: February 14, 2021, 09:22:54 AM »
by normal, you mean...?

Look at New Zealand and Australia for clues.

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2021, 09:29:29 AM »
Look at New Zealand and Australia for clues.

I get that - but a return to the normality of the last few decades would be unconscionable.

I note that 60 Tory Scum MPs HAVE WRITTEN A LETTER to Mr. Johnson urging him to end lockdown by end of April.

Also, the Sunday rags are screeching for opening up "Make this the last lockdown" they froth. These are criminal propogandii in my opinion. Editors should be charged with manslaughter and gallowed.

mobias

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #16 on: February 14, 2021, 09:39:43 AM »
I get that - but a return to the normality of the last few decades would be unconscionable.



Yeah, relatively normal would be a more accurate description I think.

 

I note that 60 Tory Scum MPs HAVE WRITTEN A LETTER to Mr. Johnson urging him to end lockdown by end of April.

Also, the Sunday rags are screeching for opening up "Make this the last lockdown" they froth. These are criminal propogandii in my opinion. Editors should be charged with manslaughter and gallowed.


It makes you very angry. I saw that 60 MP letter article this morning and you can tell these people are going to hold considerable sway. They already have of course. Its just so depressing. We are basically fucked. 

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #17 on: February 14, 2021, 09:52:02 AM »
Yeah, relatively normal would be a more accurate description I think.

 

It makes you very angry. I saw that 60 MP letter article this morning and you can tell these people are going to hold considerable sway. They already have of course. Its just so depressing. We are basically fucked.

Modern democracy in action. Replace science labs and NGS with pub tables and beer mats.

Fambo Number Mive

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #18 on: February 16, 2021, 11:33:19 AM »
There's a petition for a zero covid strategy on the Parliament.uk website - it only has a few thousand signatures so far: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/571965/signatures/new


George Oscar Bluth II

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #19 on: February 16, 2021, 12:48:16 PM »
This was the correct strategy for 2020 but once we're all vaccinated the costs are way too high for something that will, at that point, genuinely be no worse than the flu.

And I really don't envy New Zealand in their decision making about how and when to unlock. Gonna be difficult.

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #20 on: February 16, 2021, 12:57:00 PM »
This was the correct strategy for 2020 but once we're all vaccinated the costs are way too high for something that will, at that point, genuinely be no worse than the flu.

And I really don't envy New Zealand in their decision making about how and when to unlock. Gonna be difficult.

I'm not sure why people never mention that New Zealand have unlocked, and have benefited from the same strategy putting them in position to do that, albeit at the expense of international comings and goings.

I don't think it would be an unreasonable choice for 2021 and through to next Spring at all and I'm absolutely desperate to return to a normal social life and to travel somewhere that isn't in a 3 mile radius.

The fact it absolutely won't happen under any circumstances while this government are in charge probably explains the small number of signatures.

mobias

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #21 on: February 16, 2021, 01:36:54 PM »
This was the correct strategy for 2020 but once we're all vaccinated the costs are way too high for something that will, at that point, genuinely be no worse than the flu.

And I really don't envy New Zealand in their decision making about how and when to unlock. Gonna be difficult.

We're not all going to be vaccinated though. At the very, very best estimates 90% of the population are going to be vaccinated with a vaccine that at its best has 90% effectiveness. That leaves 20% of the population susceptible to a very contagious virus thats desperate to mutate with its only goal being to find a way back in and infect the other 80%. The maths is never on your side when you're dealing with such large numbers in a pandemic. 20% of the population is still a heck of a lot of people. Its why scientists are currently way more cautious and worried than most politicians, who are clearly gambling everything on the vaccines and there not being a mutation we can't act quickly against.

As a few scientists have pointed out. Going for a zero covid strategy is actually less, in terms of economic hit, than the strategy the government has gone for and is currently going for.

I absolutely envy New Zealand. They are pretty much back to normal over there. There's no international travel, but thats the trade off. 


Zetetic

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #22 on: February 16, 2021, 01:43:16 PM »
The general point of herd immunity is that you can break transmission chains below 100% individual immunity.

Wonder if anyone's come up with sensible modelling for the 'ViD, given its characteristics (e.g. highly transmissible in person, but not much surface survival?) and our vaccination strategy (a bunch of clinically vulnerable people who don't get out much anyway, if I were slightly flippant?).

George Oscar Bluth II

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #23 on: February 16, 2021, 03:18:18 PM »
I mean Auckland is in a lockdown in response to three cases so 'normal' is pushing it.

Captain Z

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #24 on: February 16, 2021, 03:21:02 PM »
the amount of collateral damage to health and economy would be off the scale. And to maintain the situation, miserable, life wrecking restrictions would need to be in place forever. It's completely impractical.

But enough about Brexit!

mobias

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #25 on: February 16, 2021, 03:26:31 PM »
I mean Auckland is in a lockdown in response to three cases so 'normal' is pushing it.

Yeah they move swiftly and because of that they can come out of lockdown very quickly and more or less completely.


Looks far more 'normal' than we've got currently thats for sure.


Shoulders?-Stomach!

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #26 on: February 16, 2021, 03:38:49 PM »
Indeed, and the tracing system is also likely to be more effective as a result meaning they can make good on the lockdown by opening up sooner.

Would far rather be in their shoes, they have enjoyed more normality than we have this past year and far better economic performance in response to what at face value is a tougher approach.

Uncle TechTip

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #27 on: February 16, 2021, 04:51:01 PM »
There's more people in Greater London and with an effective tracing system and sealed borders around the M25 maybe London would be covid-free too.

George Oscar Bluth II

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #28 on: February 16, 2021, 05:13:14 PM »
I mean yeah, obviously I'd rather have been in NZ[1] this year than where I am now. If I'd somehow had prior notice of the rona in 2018 or whenever I'd have been doing everything I could to move to any of those places permanently.
 1. Or NSW, QLD, WA, South Australia, the NT or Taiwan

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Re: The Case for a Zero Covid UK
« Reply #29 on: February 16, 2021, 06:43:33 PM »
Gunshipped to smithereens as they attempt to return 2 weeks later.

The captain stares wistfully at the rapidly-sinking conflagration.

“Them or us, friends. Them or us.”

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