Topic: Are we really on the home stretch?

[mobias]

I've got a bad feeling about all of this. Whenever I hear Boris Johnson being optimistic and positive I just oh fuck we've had it. There's so much that just doesn't make sense to me about todays announcements. Nightclubs by the 21st of June? 21st of June 2023 presumably?

[MrMrs]

yep

[Pranet]

Yeah. I think at least one more wave of death, and that is assuming no more nasty mutations.

[olliebean]

"Data not dates," but as was entirely predictable, the dates are splashed all over the front pages of the papers this morning. The data will have to be fucking catastrophic to veer Johnson from sticking to those dates. (And even then there'll probably be people with the new incurable vaccine-resistant extra-lethal extra-transmissible strain of Covid phoning into LBC to complain that they can't go to the pub for a drink in May like they were promised.)

[BlodwynPig]

I mean it really isn't because if we assume that what is the point of even living? This is one of the problems with a lot of the messaging around the vaccines, particularly in the US, there's this fatalistic "get your vaccine but nothing will change" message going out there. People have got to have hope.

What are you waffling on about, you sound like a robotic politician "Give the people hope. I, in my suit and tie, am here to give people hope". We are not all a homogenous mass of pavlovian puppies. I'd rather you stop posting for a while, oracle.

[BlodwynPig]

"Data not dates," but as was entirely predictable, the dates are splashed all over the front pages of the papers this morning. The data will have to be fucking catastrophic to veer Johnson from sticking to those dates. (And even then there'll probably be people with the new incurable vaccine-resistant extra-lethal extra-transmissible strain of Covid phoning into LBC to complain that they can't go to the pub for a drink in May like they were promised.)

LEVESON 4.0 NOW!

[thugler]

Yeah. I think at least one more wave of death, and that is assuming no more nasty mutations.

What happened to 99% of deaths are eliminated once vax is done for vulnerable groups? Am I not getting something?

[Pranet]

I was pissed last night, and doom reading, which is a bad habit. But I was looking at the Sage modelling, which, so far as I could tell was pointing out that the vaccine roll out estimates are optimistic, for various reasons not everyone is going to get a vaccine anyway, and anyway vaccines don't offer 100% protection, so opening up risks a large wave of infections, and a small percentage of a very large number is still a large number so if there is another wave then large numbers of people are still going to die. Also, I've seen it pointed out that they don't tend to put old people in ICUs, so a wave of young people getting hospitalised could very quickly overwhelm ICU capacity.

But I honestly don't know. Hope I'm wrong and it will be fine. I guess if they are being honest and they do slow down opening up if the figures start to look nasty then it will be. But past experience suggests they are not.

[poo]

Next summer might be normal-ish

[Zetetic]

It feels like there's a tonne of complexity, for want of a more a serious term, around variants that might reduce or eliminate the benefits of our current vaccines (and the conditions that support the emergence and propagations of these variants).

[mobias]

I was pissed last night, and doom reading, which is a bad habit. But I was looking at the Sage modelling, which, so far as I could tell was pointing out that the vaccine roll out estimates are optimistic, for various reasons not everyone is going to get a vaccine anyway, and anyway vaccines don't offer 100% protection, so opening up risks a large wave of infections, and a small percentage of a very large number is still a large number so if there is another wave then large numbers of people are still going to die. Also, I've seen it pointed out that they don't tend to put old people in ICUs, so a wave of young people getting hospitalised could very quickly overwhelm ICU capacity.

Yeah I was reading last night that they reckon up to 40% of the population may end up not getting vaccinated and of those that do get vaccinated 10% won't see any protection. So that leaves roughly 50% of the population vulnerable. Thats a lot of people. I really can't get my head round why everyone is being so optimistic. Though you can tell some notable scientists aren't.

[DolphinFace]

At least at the end of the home stretch we'll have the Conservatives great Leveling up to enjoy. I can't wait for the massive injection of investment into public services

[Fambo Number Mive]

The news is so one-sided about this, almost totally ignoring the risks of Boris Johnson's roadmap. And on another forum that rhymes with "humsket" (I only have a look at the Corona forum and I don't post, I'm not a TERF) people who are critical of the schools reopening plan and the wider roadmap are being shouted down.

[thugler]

Yeah I was reading last night that they reckon up to 40% of the population may end up not getting vaccinated

That seems mental. Really high. Is that more from people refusing it or people unable to have it for some reason?

Because the first group, genuinely fuck them and I can see the argument for them being forced to have it.

This makes the '99% of deaths eliminated' thing complete toss.

If they were to just get the numbers very low, and got the absolutely shitty test and trace thing working properly that would be a start.

[MojoJojo]

That seems mental. Really high. Is that more from people refusing it or people unable to have it for some reason?

I think the 40% comes from this survey https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/210393/under-half-people-currently-willing-covid-19/

Which was asking if people would take one if offered right then - before any vaccine had been approved. It's also multiple countries, with big variance between them e.g. UK 61% saying they'd take a vaccine in 2021 compared to France at 35%. Does anyone know what the deal is with France and the vaccine?

I wish people would take the 5 minutes to google and not repeat shitty numbers just because they are dramatic.

[thugler]

I have noticed a huge amount of batshit views on the vaccine from elderly relatives. They did have it though to be fair.

Even with a pinch of salt that's a large amount of people who are just twats. I thought anti vax stuff had declined in the UK since the MMR debacle? Looks like kids vaccinations are at about 93/94% so I had expected something similar with the Covid one, maybe higher since people are so sick of it and the potential for it to be required from travelling abroad etc.

Here's another poll that seems a bit more positive.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/articles-reports/2020/11/16/how-many-britons-are-willing-take-coronavirus-vacc

Indicating less of an anti vax view, and people just waiting to see if it's safe, presumably they will be convinced now millions of people have had it.

[mobias]

I wish people would take the 5 minutes to google and not repeat shitty numbers just because they are dramatic.

If you google it there's any number of surveys but they seem to average at around 25% to 30%/. There's also people who can't take the vaccine for various medical reasons. I guess in the short term there will inevitably be people who slip through the net and
don't get offered the vaccine at all. There seems to be any number of stories coming out already. So many people are off grid when it comes existing on the NHS records and who aren't even contactable. At the end of the day all of that will add up to a fair chunk of the population.

[El Unicornio, mang]

There are many also refusing to get it on religious grounds, which can be pretty hard to persuade otherwise.

[thenoise]

Yeah I was reading last night that they reckon up to 40% of the population may end up not getting vaccinated and of those that do get vaccinated 10% won't see any protection. So that leaves roughly 46% of the population vulnerable. Thats a lot of people. I really can't get my head round why everyone is being so optimistic. Though you can tell some notable scientists aren't.

[thugler]

Is there a % point vaccination wise that will give us herd immunity despite these idiots?

[MojoJojo]

Is there a % point vaccination wise that will give us herd immunity despite these idiots?

Well there is, but it's not really possible to give a good number yet as too much is not known e.g. how effective the vaccines are at stopping people spreading the virus. Estimates are 70-90%.

[FerriswheelBueller]

To add - we also don’t know how many people have had it, and how long their “immunity” lasts for (and if they can get it again eventually and whether they can spread it asymptomatically.

To take the US as an example, probably 10%+ of the population has had it. That might mean that a lot of people don’t need vaccinations now as they are “immune” (can’t get it again, and can’t spread it). That’s good, only need to vax 60% of the population and job done.

Or, it could be that they can spread it about and immunity doesn’t last beyond fighting off the initial infection, in which case, you’re back at square one. Also - can vaccinated people still spread it about? No one really knows so it’s hard to say.

I’m staying hopeful and saying 70% of the population (with social distancing) will do the trick, and that immune systems are robust enough to deliver similar protection as a vaccine but I’m basing that on fuck all.

[Thursday]

To be honest, more than the idea of it not really being realistic for pubs/clubs/gig venues to open that soon, even in a perfect scenario, my thought is just "God people are going to be unbearable" every dickish drunken selfish entitled behaviour you'd see on any night out will be multiplied by a million.

[FerriswheelBueller]

every dickish drunken selfish entitled behaviour you'd see on any night out will be multiplied by a million.

...and that’s just my living room!!

[George Oscar Bluth II]

What are you waffling on about, you sound like a robotic politician "Give the people hope. I, in my suit and tie, am here to give people hope". We are not all a homogenous mass of pavlovian puppies. I'd rather you stop posting for a while, oracle.

No you're right, we should just tell everyone we're all going to live like this forever, that there's going to be endless waves of mutated covid and that they should be glad of even that because complaining about it makes you selfish.

Will parents be fined for not sending their children to school?

Yeah it really needs to be "send your kids back if you want". Lot of vulnerable, still unvaccinated parents out there.

[thugler]

To add - we also don’t know how many people have had it, and how long their “immunity” lasts for (and if they can get it again eventually and whether they can spread it asymptomatically.

To take the US as an example, probably 10%+ of the population has had it. That might mean that a lot of people don’t need vaccinations now as they are “immune” (can’t get it again, and can’t spread it). That’s good, only need to vax 60% of the population and job done.

Or, it could be that they can spread it about and immunity doesn’t last beyond fighting off the initial infection, in which case, you’re back at square one. Also - can vaccinated people still spread it about? No one really knows so it’s hard to say.

I’m staying hopeful and saying 70% of the population (with social distancing) will do the trick, and that immune systems are robust enough to deliver similar protection as a vaccine but I’m basing that on fuck all.

I'd read that about 15% of the UK had it now though, Doesn't that mean less than 60% will do it? Or maybe that's a difficult one to get accurately?

[FerriswheelBueller]

I'd read that about 15% of the UK had it now though, Doesn't that mean less than 60% will do it? Or maybe that's a difficult one to get accurately?

Not a scooby, I was already speculating wildly and can’t really go any further off piste.

[Chedney Honks]

I honestly feel hopeful for the first time in fourteen months.

Just to be frank, I'm not handwaving the various systemic issues this will have caused. I'm just saying that I really believe Covid as we know it is on the way out.

And that's based on fuck all!

[olliebean]

I honestly feel hopeful for the first time in fourteen months.

Just to be frank, I'm not handwaving the various systemic issues this will have caused. I'm just saying that I really believe Covid as we know it is on the way out.

And that's based on fuck all!

I'm somewhat uncomfortable with the amount of heavy lifting those four words are doing.

[BlodwynPig]

Next summer might be normal-ish

Botty tugging in the park?