Topic: Mexico death toll revised upwards by 60%

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Mexico death toll revised by 60% to 321,000
Mexico’s government acknowledged Saturday that the country’s true death toll from the coronavirus pandemic now stands above 321,000, almost 60% more than the official test-confirmed number of 201,429.

Mexico does little testing, and because hospitals were overwhelmed, many Mexicans died at home without getting a test. The only way to get a clear picture is to review “excess deaths” and review death certificates.

On Saturday, the government quietly published such a report, which found there were 294,287 deaths linked to Covid from the start of the pandemic through 14 February. Since 15 February there have been an additional 26,772 test-confirmed deaths.

The higher toll would rival that of Brazil, which currently has the world’s second-highest number of deaths after the United States. But Mexico’s population of 126 million is far smaller than either of those countries.

The new report also confirms just how deadly Mexico’s second wave in January was. As of the end of December, excess death estimates suggested a total of about 220,000 deaths related to Covid in Mexico. That number jumped by around 75,000 in just a month and a half.

Also suggestive were the overall number of “excess deaths” since the pandemic began, around 417,000. Excess deaths are determined by comparing the deaths in a given year to those that would be expected based on data from previous years.

A review of death certificates found about 70.5% of the excess deaths were Covid-related, often because it was listed on the certificates as a suspected or contributing cause of death. But some experts say Covid may have contributed to many of the other excess deaths because many people couldn’t get treatment for other diseases because hospitals were overwhelmed.

Former President Felipe Calderón wrote in his Twitter account Saturday that “more than 400,000 Mexicans have died, above the average for previous years ... probably the highest figure in the world.

[Chedney Honks]

Nobody gets to the morgue quicker than Señor Speedy Gonzales.

[seepage]

Even though they're "The Fastest Mouse in all Mexico", my partner continues to believe they are Brazilian, and female.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Slightly amazed by the lack of interest in this enormous deathpile, I guess people just worn down by now.

[Fambo Number Mive]

I think it is because Britain's death toll is so massive that such numbers sadly no longer seem surprising. Does this mean that Mexico's deaths per million is now higher than Britain's?

[bgmnts]

What the fuck that's a massive number isn't it? Much bigger than us in proportion to population right?

[Fambo Number Mive]

I think you are right.

The population of Mexico is estimated at 129,954,120, so a bit less than double Britain's. So I think their deaths per million is now 2,471 whereas I think Britain's is 2,222 (without the 28 days cutoff, which I'm not aware of Mexico having).

[BlodwynPig]

I think it is because Britain's death toll is so massive that such numbers sadly no longer seem surprising. Does this mean that Mexico's deaths per million is now higher than Britain's?

WE WIN, WE WIN!

[BlodwynPig]

China (pop. 1.4 billion) 92nd on cases list, just overtaken by Montenegro (pop. 660,000)

[Zetetic]

Slightly amazed by the lack of interest in this enormous deathpile, I guess people just worn down by now.

And it's to be expected - even the UK, it's been emphasised from the start that death certificates were a much more reliable (if less timely) source of information than post-test-deaths on deaths involving COVID-19, and that excess deaths would be more reliable still overall.

Anyway, regarding the UK, something like:

Measure	UK	Mexico
Population	67 million	128 million
Excess Deaths	116k 1700 per million	417k 3300 per million
Any mention of COVID-19 on death certificate	144k 2150 per million	321k 2500 per million
Following a positive test	126k 1900 per million	201k 1600 per million

(There might be non-trivial mistakes in this. Cobbled together quickly from ONS and NRS figures for the UK, with no guarantee that the periods are comparable.)

[Zetetic]

The really interesting difference is between excess deaths and mentions on the death certificate.

We've had more people die with COVID-19 (according to their doctors) than excess deaths. Maybe we're overcounting. Maybe we've had a bunch of people die from COVID-19 who in a normal year might well have died of the 2020/21 flu season or some other respiratory ailment (and possibly ended up with an underlying cause of death like "dementia" on their certificates).

Is Mexico's death certification inaccurate? Or are we seeing what happens what your healthcare system collapses from COVID-19, and people start dying more often of everything else? I've no idea what the incentives are in Mexico around certification, and if they differ substantially from Western European countries who are believed to certify quite similarly (when it comes to something like COVID-19 anyway).