Poll

Well, is it? No more lockdowns in Uk?

Yes
29 (22.8%)
No
67 (52.8%)
I fucking hope not as I’m loving this
31 (24.4%)

Total Members Voted: 127

Author Topic: Is it all over? CAB *poll*  (Read 3315 times)

Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« on: April 02, 2021, 01:46:22 PM »
Are we in the end game now?

shiftwork2

  • pies this is your time
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2021, 01:53:05 PM »
Nope.  My Trust is planning for the next peak in the last week of June / first week of July.  What the relationship will be between cases and hospitalisations by then, well, have a look in your crystal ball.

Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2021, 01:56:50 PM »
Global cases have been rising rapidly since mid Feb, so I fear not.

Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2021, 02:04:38 PM »
Oh :(

bgmnts

  • Depressed to the point of poisonous toxicity.
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #4 on: April 02, 2021, 02:08:48 PM »
Outlook not so good.

GoblinAhFuckScary

  • still freaks my nut to this day
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #5 on: April 02, 2021, 02:11:56 PM »
DEAD SOON

Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #6 on: April 02, 2021, 02:24:46 PM »
I reckon I’ll be getting gassed on reiki in falaraki come September personally - it all being a distant memory

katzenjammer

  • Now we know...
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #7 on: April 02, 2021, 02:26:37 PM »
It feels like the answer is: for rich nations, yes, for the rest of the world, no. By that I mean that it is going to stop being a serious problem for us just like many other diseases which we rarely give a second thought about

Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #8 on: April 02, 2021, 02:28:42 PM »
It feels like the answer is: for rich nations, yes, for the rest of the world, no. By that I mean that it is going to stop being a serious problem for us just like many other diseases which we rarely give a second thought about

That’s the spirit!

Zetetic

  • I wasn't supposed to be around this long, so…
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #9 on: April 02, 2021, 02:41:01 PM »
Third wave expected in a matter of months, given current plans, with even fairly conservative estimates involving 10,000s more deaths in the UK.

A million or more with the long 'ViD already.

Attempts to cushion the economic blow to the worst-off haven't been undertaken seriously.

We already have huge backlogs of people requiring diagnostics and treatment for other conditions.

Future late diagnosis of treatable conditions will be exacerbated by many people, particularly amongst the worst-off, being put off early help-seeking for years to come.

Vaccine effectiveness is already limited, and existing variants seem to reduce it further.

Billions left as reservoirs worldwide, before we even consider non-human hosts.

All a bit up in the air, really.

katzenjammer

  • Now we know...
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #10 on: April 02, 2021, 02:53:11 PM »
Well when you put it like that....

Fambo Number Mive

  • Golden Member
  • *****
  • MAKE ROOM FOR THE MUSHROOMS
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #11 on: April 02, 2021, 03:09:25 PM »
For England - I would love it if no more lockdowns were needed but I think we are looking at a circuit breaker in the winter at the very least to keep cases low while we give out the booster. That's if we don't get a new vaccine-resistant variant which requires a longer lockdown beginning sooner. I suppose it partly depends on how effective we are at detecting and containing new variants and our approach to international travel.

The coronavirus reproduction number, or R value, in England is between 0.8 and 1, which is concerning.

For Wales/Scotland/Northern Ireland - difficult to say at this stage whether there would be any differences from England. I get the feeling the Scottish and Welsh governments (and possibly the Northern Ireland government) are more sensible about this than the wankers at Westminster.

I can imagine needing to wear face masks in shops and on public transport for at least another year. Social distancing will probably be scrapped in the summer for economic reasons, but might be brought back if we lockdown again. Really can't imagine concerts taking place until 2023.

Globally - aside from countries like China and New Zealand which dealt with it in the most effective way, most countries are facing rising cases as people have said. Cases rising in some states in the US despite vaccine rollout.

I'm trying to be more positive and I am enjoying being able to go out for a walk more than once a day but every time I get my hopes up for a day or two, I read something that makes me feel pessimistic about COVID again.

BlodwynPig

  • The Last Living Member of COVID-20
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #12 on: April 02, 2021, 03:15:28 PM »
Third wave expected in a matter of months, given current plans, with even fairly conservative estimates involving 10,000s more deaths in the UK.

A million or more with the long 'ViD already.

Attempts to cushion the economic blow to the worst-off haven't been undertaken seriously.

We already have huge backlogs of people requiring diagnostics and treatment for other conditions.

Future late diagnosis of treatable conditions will be exacerbated by many people, particularly amongst the worst-off, being put off early help-seeking for years to come.

Vaccine effectiveness is already limited, and existing variants seem to reduce it further.

Billions left as reservoirs worldwide, before we even consider non-human hosts.

All a bit up in the air, really.

Yes, living with COVID is the strategy now. Not clued up on whether convergence to a less deadly variant or the need for regular booster jabs.

Janie Jones

  • Member
  • **
  • Shift over
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #13 on: April 02, 2021, 03:22:44 PM »
Nope.  My Trust is planning for the next peak in the last week of June / first week of July.  What the relationship will be between cases and hospitalisations by then, well, have a look in your crystal ball.
But everyone is either dead or has antibodies (from catching it or from vaccination), who is going to be clogging up your trust?

Captain Z

  • Die Hard or Die Tryin'
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #14 on: April 02, 2021, 03:28:14 PM »
Third wave expected in a matter of months, given current plans, with even fairly conservative estimates involving 10,000s more deaths in the UK.

A million or more with the long 'ViD already.

Attempts to cushion the economic blow to the worst-off haven't been undertaken seriously.

We already have huge backlogs of people requiring diagnostics and treatment for other conditions.

Future late diagnosis of treatable conditions will be exacerbated by many people, particularly amongst the worst-off, being put off early help-seeking for years to come.

Vaccine effectiveness is already limited, and existing variants seem to reduce it further.

Billions left as reservoirs worldwide, before we even consider non-human hosts.

All a bit up in the air, really.

Still, good news about the chocolate helicopters.

BlodwynPig

  • The Last Living Member of COVID-20
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2021, 03:29:16 PM »
We are in desperate need of a 2021 Tom Moore

Buelligan

  • STOP being afraid
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2021, 03:47:50 PM »
A million or more with the long 'ViD already.

Dunno if I had that or not.  Since I was ill, last March, I've had a horrible wheezing sometimes, especially when I lie down, always when I lay down, also some weird feelings like my heart became a fluttering bird for a few seconds.  Anyway, I thought I'd just power through, as I do with everything, found that going for increasingly serious strenuous climby marches and runs, where my heart and breathing rate gets pushed but I always stop when I'm getting really fucked for a second or two, seems to be a game-changer.  Bit grim but I coughed up something pretty horrible couple of weeks ago and the lungs seem to be pulling themselves together nicely, wheezing's almost gone now. 

We're just going into lockdown again today, btw.

Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #17 on: April 02, 2021, 03:48:32 PM »
Yes, living with COVID is the strategy now. Not clued up on whether convergence to a less deadly variant or the need for regular booster jabs.

I was talking to people in work when I finally was able to go back after being off for 6 weeks with it, and my belief is it'll be like the flu every year, and that's the best we can hope for.

So a jab every year or however often it'll be needed based on whatever the most common strains of it will be.

It's here to stay.

Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #18 on: April 02, 2021, 04:00:06 PM »
I was talking to people in work when I finally was able to go back after being off for 6 weeks with it, and my belief is it'll be like the flu every year, and that's the best we can hope for.

So a jab every year or however often it'll be needed based on whatever the most common strains of it will be.

It's here to stay.
But is COVID seasonal like the flu?

BlodwynPig

  • The Last Living Member of COVID-20
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #19 on: April 02, 2021, 04:05:48 PM »
But is COVID seasonal like the flu?

Immune response probably is

shiftwork2

  • pies this is your time
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #20 on: April 02, 2021, 04:33:39 PM »
But everyone is either dead or has antibodies (from catching it or from vaccination), who is going to be clogging up your trust?

Not everyone has started vaccination yet, and the effectiveness isn't clear and may change at short notice.  Worst case planning obviously.

If the poll had been 'are we over the worst' I wouldn't hesitate to have said yes.

Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #21 on: April 02, 2021, 04:38:24 PM »

Fucking hope it's over soon. Won't be able to cope with any more lockdowns.

Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #22 on: April 03, 2021, 12:37:44 PM »
From what Whitty's been saying now the hope is that the vaccine will reduce the death toll of non-locked-down third and subsequent waves in perpetuity to levels that the public can be persuaded to view as acceptable.

Schrodingers Cat

  • Hail majestic corporate light!
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #23 on: April 03, 2021, 06:41:30 PM »
Hard to know how to respond to that poll tbh. My instinctive answers:

Are we in the end game? Yes
Will we have another full lockdown after this one? No
Is it ‘over’ yet? No
Will we have some restrictions again later in the year? Probably, but not on the same scale
Will the current pathway out of lockdown change? Maybe - hopefully it won’t have to, but I’m also not confident it will change even if it should later

I really hope this is the beginning of the end. I’ve enjoyed being back at rugby training this week, and so want to start being able to meet friends socially in the near future. The question is will the combination of vaccines and improvements in treatment be able to sufficiently limit deaths/serious cases enough to get back to some sense of ‘normality’? No idea at all there. I hope so. Ideally, we would have pursued a zero-COVID strategy from the start, but I feel that ship has sailed.

Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #24 on: April 03, 2021, 07:24:51 PM »
Ideally, we would have pursued a zero-COVID strategy from the start, but I feel that ship has sailed.
Too late because we're already coming out of lockdown, you mean? I'd love to be proven wrong, but I think we'll be in and out of lockdown until we adopt a zero covid strategy. I'm yet to hear a coherent argument against it from a policy maker, and so much of their response to the crisis has been predicated on wishful thinking. The virus has caused unthinkable destruction on a global level, and - I feel - calls for a more radical solution than is being offered.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • ❤️Stag Bol®❤️
    • http://jackanderton.jamendo.net/
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #25 on: April 04, 2021, 08:16:31 AM »
From what Whitty's been saying now the hope is that the vaccine will reduce the death toll of non-locked-down third and subsequent waves in perpetuity to levels that the public can be persuaded to view as acceptable.

We'll see. Last year across Europe we saw the virus recede to extremely low levels around June, July and August even after restrictions had been largely eased. The new factors are some more infectious variants but also vaccinations. I would be surprised if there is a summer wave.

I also think a lockdown next winter for 2-3 weeks may become necessary regardless of if we want it or not, while some forms of distancing over winter are likely for next 2 or 3 years.

MojoJojo

  • Member
  • **
  • Between a cow college and a MetaLab.
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #26 on: April 04, 2021, 09:16:15 AM »
I really don't see another lockdown as likely. There's good evidence that the vaccine greatly reduces hospitalisations, even against the variants. The government's justification for lockdown is premised on preventing hospitals getting overwhelmed.

Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #27 on: April 04, 2021, 11:22:56 AM »
It feels like the answer is: for rich nations, yes, for the rest of the world, no. By that I mean that it is going to stop being a serious problem for us just like many other diseases which we rarely give a second thought about

Yeah. This. The vaccines are absolutely brilliant. Ignore the scary headlines about variants - the vaccines pretty much guarantee that you won’t be hospitalised or die.

I think we’ll be back to relative normality in the UK this year (albeit with less international travel, and maybe some restrictions in the winter where the burden will, as always, be on the more vulnerable) but poorer countries will suffer for years if not decades. The knock-on effect it’s having on AIDS services in sub-Suharan Africa is terrifying too.

George Oscar Bluth II

  • Karma: +69 / -420
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #28 on: April 05, 2021, 10:19:14 AM »
I do think we're on a one way trip to normality, I think we'll probably have a "bad"[1] exit wave with probably little to no restrictions in force next winter. Maybe masks in supermarkets and the like. At some point the anti-lockdown people will be right and the damage of lockdown will actually start to outweigh the positives in disease control.
 1. By pre-covid standards of bad, but less severe than anything in the pandemic so far

BlodwynPig

  • The Last Living Member of COVID-20
Re: Is it all over? CAB *poll*
« Reply #29 on: April 05, 2021, 10:26:47 AM »
I do think we're on a one way trip to normality, I think we'll probably have a "bad"[1] exit wave with probably little to no restrictions in force next winter. Maybe masks in supermarkets and the like. At some point the anti-lockdown people will be right and the damage of lockdown will actually start to outweigh the positives in disease control.
 1. By pre-covid standards of bad, but less severe than anything in the pandemic so far

Balderdash.

Tags: