Topic: Is it all over? CAB *poll*

[JaDanketies]

60% of UK adults have now been vaccinated with the vaccinated demographics containing 99% of all hospital admissions.

I only know one person who claims to have long COVID, and she's a bit dramatic. Kind of person who would've claimed to have an uncle working at Nintendo.

I'm not sure I answered the poll right, as it's kinda a double-negative.

[Chedney Honks]

I only know one person who claims to have long COVID, and she's a bit dramatic. Kind of person who would've claimed to have an uncle working at Nintendo.

What a cunt of a post.

[JaDanketies]

What a cunt of a post.

Well I hear one in seven people that get COVID gets long COVID. But I don't personally feel worried about it. I feel like the people who would get it would be more likely to be inoculated already? Tbh I'm very skeptical about the person I know who claims to have got long COVID, but y'all don't know her anyway.

She might have it, I don't know. If you're the Boy Who Cries Wolf then maybe people don't believe you when there actually is a wolf.

[Chedney Honks]

Yes, ignorance is bliss.

[BlodwynPig]

Well I hear one in seven people that get COVID gets long COVID. But I don't personally feel worried about it. I feel like the people who would get it would be more likely to be inoculated already? Tbh I'm very skeptical about the person I know who claims to have got long COVID, but y'all don't know her anyway.

She might have it, I don't know. If you're the Boy Who Cries Wolf then maybe people don't believe you when there actually is a wolf.

Good for you. So glad for you. Life is a show about YOU.

[flotemysost]

As I mentioned in the vaccine passports thread, I have several friends (young, healthy, mainly white Caucasian adults) who had COVID last year (mostly around autumn/winter) who are still suffering. Even in "mild" cases - still can't smell or taste properly, permanent brain fog - for someone previously healthy in their early thirties that's really fucking shit. Even if the worst effect is that you'll never enjoy food again in the same way that you did before, yes it's not the same as being on a ventilator but it's still not something I'd wish on anyone.

And I've got another friend who had it in March 2020 and basically has barely left his bed since. 31 years old. I don't know your friend or her circumstances but to perpetuate the insinuation that long COVID doesn't exist is pretty fucking insulting to the many who are living with it.

[JaDanketies]

I'm not saying it doesn't exist. I even said apparently one-in-seven people get it. Nobody in my sphere has got it except for this one person, so there's a cognitive dissonance between my experiences and the apparent facts.

[flotemysost]

Nobody in my sphere has died of COVID, but what would be the point of me saying "well in MY experience no one's been affected in that way"? It would be a completely useless and highly insensitive thing to say. I know you weren't outright denying the existence of long COVID but there are vast numbers who do, and I think anything that adds to that chorus is just really not helpful to those who are genuinely suffering at the moment.

[JaDanketies]

I guess I feel like, with the news that almost all the at-risk groups have been vaccinated, I'm not concerned about things reopening. Except for the Long COVID issue, which I'm unsure about. Would reopening everything lead to one-seventh of the remaining 40% suffering from what sounds like an awful long-term condition?

[flotemysost]

Would reopening everything lead to one-seventh of the remaining 40% suffering from what sounds like an awful long-term condition?

Well, without looking at any official figures, it does seem that that's pretty much what happened last time (based purely on my own anecdotal experiences, I'd estimate it to be higher than one in seven, although lots of my friends are possibly likely to be at higher risk of having caught it - living in flatshares, living in densely populated areas, lots of them don't work from home, etc).

Obviously that was pre-vaccine rollout, so it's hard to say how that will affect any future re-openings. If you're talking about stuff re-opening once "vulnerable" groups have been vaccinated but non-vulnerable groups haven't yet (i.e. the demographic that most of the people I know who are suffering with long COVID fall into), then it definitely seems it's a risk, yeah.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

I would wish not being able to enjoy food again on thousands of people tbh

[steveh]

One of the problems with the term Long-Covid is it mixes up the post-viral ME-like syndrome with damage to organs that just takes a long time to repair.

After the initial recovery I haven't thankfully suffered from the former, but it took around eight months for my kidneys to return to normal and a year on my breathing still isn't what it was before I had it.

[JaDanketies]

oh shit I've only got one kidney

[Endicott]

How much do you want for it?

[George Oscar Bluth II]

Balderdash.

How long should we lock down for Blodders? When should I next be able to go and see my parents? Summer 2022? Or would that be too early?

[steveh]

Thread comparing recent modelling on future waves: https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1379701658813337602

[BlodwynPig]

How long should we lock down for Blodders? When should I next be able to go and see my parents? Summer 2022? Or would that be too early?

Go and see your parents, I'm not stopping you. Or use Zoom.

[MrMrs]

hostile

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Thread comparing recent modelling on future waves: https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1379701658813337602

Both those models predict a flattening of deaths and hospital admissions through May which seems unlikely to me given the factors on balance, but I am glad to read it.

If I was to bet, I think we will see a mini rise in April and May which is then capped off by seasonality well into September.

If it gets up to 250 deaths a day by August this year firstly that will be awful, but secondly, why didn't that happen last year? The wave feature isn't a phenomenon, infections spread because of tangible reasons relating to human activity and climatic conditions. Most of Europe didn't encounter any big jump in cases during August.

[Old Thrashbarg]

If it gets up to 250 deaths a day by August this year firstly that will be awful, but secondly, why didn't that happen last year? The wave feature isn't a phenomenon, infections spread because of tangible reasons relating to human activity and climatic conditions. Most of Europe didn't encounter any big jump in cases during August.

I haven't read the papers in which the models were published, so I'm guessing at the reasoning here, but if all social distancing restrictions are dispensed with at the end of June it would likely lead to increased transmission during July. And with the average time it takes from infection to death, that would probably mean an increase in deaths through July and into August. And they've presumably got that then falling as vaccinations increase.

[George Oscar Bluth II]

Go and see your parents, I'm not stopping you. Or use Zoom.

No this is a genuine question to the doomiest of doomer posters on here: how long should we lock down for, when should we open the pubs, when should people be permitted to meet others indoors? You can't just post "lol, wave four coming" in every thread, back yourself, show us the benefit of your clear expertise and tell us what you'd do.

[JaDanketies]

I'm considering taking my laptop to the pub on Monday after I drop the kiddo off at nursery, and sitting in the beer garden doing my work all day. Would just be nice to be somewhere different.

[gib]

I'm considering taking my laptop to the pub on Monday after I drop the kiddo off at nursery, and sitting in the beer garden doing my work all day. Would just be nice to be somewhere different.

forecast here is 7C for Monday, i can see how that's different but i can't see how it's nice

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Should be ok if you find a sun trap out of the wind (genuinely).

[BlodwynPig]

No this is a genuine question to the doomiest of doomer posters on here: how long should we lock down for, when should we open the pubs, when should people be permitted to meet others indoors? You can't just post "lol, wave four coming" in every thread, back yourself, show us the benefit of your clear expertise and tell us what you'd do.

I am not allowed to give my opinion as this would get me fired. Sorry.

However, not enough data to know exactly what the next wave looks like - but I suspect it will damped in comparison to the last. So, possibly no need to lock down but a strong campaign to maintain social distancing and other precautions and not act like a tit about town.

[flotemysost]

I'm considering taking my laptop to the pub on Monday after I drop the kiddo off at nursery, and sitting in the beer garden doing my work all day. Would just be nice to be somewhere different.

Pre-COVID, on quiet Friday afternoons my manager would let me work from home, but instead of going home I'd take my laptop to a cafe near me that played an eclectic disco soundtrack and had an excellent people-watching spot (with electrical sockets) by the window. Would have dearly loved to be able to do something like that over the past year.

Nothing stopping me from going to a pub garden either after next week I suppose, but I'm not sure how long I'd be able to concentrate for outdoors, especially with the amount of video calls I have to do now.

[gib]

Should be ok if you find a sun trap out of the wind (genuinely).

I would think such hotspots might be a little crowded.

[jfjnpxmy]

I am not allowed to give my opinion as this would get me fired. Sorry.

Oh, fuck off.

[BlodwynPig]

Oh, fuck off.

Was i talking to you? Prick.

[jfjnpxmy]

Was i talking to you? Prick.

No sir

BUT

Unless I'm mixing you up with someone else, you've been doing "woaaaahhh, I'm the fella with the inside scoop" patter for a year now, but whenever anyone tries to get anything more concrete than "be frightened and feel bad" out of you you instantly flip to "woah hey top secret more than my job's worth mate" which is patently bollocks. Away and git tae fuck, you utter fraud.