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April 18, 2024, 08:45:06 PM

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Covid will not be circulating in the UK by August

Started by Shoulders?-Stomach!, May 08, 2021, 10:06:31 PM

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Shoulders?-Stomach!

Bold claim alert

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/08/clive-dix-claims-covid-not-in-uk-by-august-vaccine

He's even disarmingly arsed cigs about booster vaccines.

Is he talking complete shit? Don't want to get my hopes up unfoundedly.

Sebastian Cobb


shiftwork2

It will be circulating everywhere, forever.

alright cheers



flotemysost

Quote from: shiftwork2 on May 08, 2021, 11:46:06 PM
It will be circulating everywhere, forever.

alright cheers

They just need to stop hitting Reply All on COVID, problem solved.

BlodwynPig

Quote from: Shoulders?-Stomach! on May 08, 2021, 10:06:31 PM
Bold claim alert

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/08/clive-dix-claims-covid-not-in-uk-by-august-vaccine

He's even disarmingly arsed cigs about booster vaccines.

Is he talking complete shit? Don't want to get my hopes up unfoundedly.

bollocks. It's already on the rise thanks to Indian variant. If it's managed now, perhaps it will be a blip, but maskless schools won't help.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

At the very least, 6 monthly boosters seem like a very good idea.

BlodwynPig


steveh

The evidence with the Pfizer vaccine though is that it is holding up really well in protection many months after the initial jabs so boosters are unlikely to be needed in such a short time scale. The UK government has recently bought another 60m does of it, which I assume will be the tweaked 2G version with even better protection against the newer variants.

Blue Jam

Quote from: steveh on May 09, 2021, 10:22:29 AM
The evidence with the Pfizer vaccine though is that it is holding up really well in protection many months after the initial jabs so boosters are unlikely to be needed in such a short time scale. The UK government has recently bought another 60m does of it, which I assume will be the tweaked 2G version with even better protection against the newer variants.

Good news. How's the AstraZeneca vaccine holding up? Really would rather have Pfizer than Ol' Clotty when my time comes

Fambo Number Mive

I expect what has happened with the trains this week will also mean a rise in cases over the next couple of weeks. Some people who would normally use GWR/LNER trains will ignore the warnings not to travel this weekend, making alternate services more crowded and making it harder to social distance. When the trains do get back to normal, they will probably be more crowded for the first few days.

Also, under 18s won't have been vaccinated by August. I suspect COVID will be circulating throughout 2021 and into 2022, however what this means for hospitalisations and deaths will depend on how the vaccination program goes both in the UK and the rest of the word and what happens with international travel in the UK.

The message that masks in schools won't be required after May 17th is very concerning and I suspect was partly intended to get more votes for the Tories in the local elections.

BlodwynPig

Quote from: Fambo Number Mive on May 09, 2021, 10:49:45 AM


The message that masks in schools won't be required after May 17th is very concerning and I suspect was partly intended to get more votes for the Tories in the local elections.

Given that SAGE and others advised against it is the clincher.

All other data suggests we've somehow (fucking somehow!) been pretty successful in reducing transmission despite some lax behaviours. However, data is starting to turn, so I anticipate a slight bump (wastewater uptick a couple of weeks ago and has persisted - i.e. not increasing but not decreasing). Clinical data seems to be catching up now. Not sure on 'magnitude' though.

steveh

Quote from: Blue Jam on May 09, 2021, 10:44:43 AM
Good news. How's the AstraZeneca vaccine holding up? Really would rather have Pfizer than Ol' Clotty when my time comes

I can't remember seeing any reports about that but published research on it seems to lag behind Pfizer. AZ is still a perfectly fine vaccine.

Blue Jam

Quote from: steveh on May 09, 2021, 10:59:53 AM
I can't remember seeing any reports about that but published research on it seems to lag behind Pfizer. AZ is still a perfectly fine vaccine.

Cheers, but I've got a family history of DVT/heart attacks and I can't help being a bit worried. My GP has also told me to mention this when I do eventually get the jab.

Can't wait to ditch the masks though. I'm going to chuck all of mine the second wearing them is no longer compulsory.

Cuellar

This guy's definitely talking out of his bloody arse right