Next stage of easing restrictions in England

[bgmnts]

77% rise in India variant and there have been 1,000 in the past 3 days I read.

Might be best to shut the pubs for a week just to get a handle on this.

[BlodwynPig]

Anyone popping out for an Indian?

There is a Newcastle meet tomorrow - Indian fully booked though...true story

[Cuellar]

77% rise in India variant and there have been 1,000 in the past 3 days I read.

Might be best to shut the pubs for a week just to get a handle on this.

NEEEVVVERRRRRRRRR

[bgmnts]

Ha!

The news is currently "lockdown easing" and "worrying new variant that is very transmissable".

What a fucking insanely shit place this is.

[Cuellar]

Yeah, INDIAN VARIANT SURGING, IGNORE LOCKDOWN EASING SAY SCIENTISTS

scroll down to

"IT FEELS REALLY SPECIAL", MANCHESTER VENUES OPTIMISTIC AS DOORS REOPEN

"WE'RE GOING FOR IT", BACK INSIDE UK'S BIGGEST RESTAURANT

[BlodwynPig]

Local news seems just to be free advertising for bland businesses

[Cuellar]

Would it shock you to learn that those headlines were taken from the GUARDIAN

[bgmnts]

Fair play boris is talking a right load of old shite on this.

[bgmnts]

Its changing every few hours it seems. First its "we're confident the roadmap wont change" and now its "we'll see".

[Drygate]

Latest data on transmissibility of Indian variant offers 'glimmer of hope', says Prof Ferguson (Guardian.

[MojoJojo]

Latest data on transmissibility of Indian variant offers 'glimmer of hope', says Prof Ferguson (Guardian.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986709/S1237_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf
Page 8 (I was going to screen grab but I don't to bum everyone on the thread out). It's a bit confusing because each colour is a range. But even a 40% increase in transmissibility means there is only a small chance we don't match the first peak. That's if we stay at stage 3.

The good news is there is a still a lot of uncertainty about how more transmissible the new variant is, and how many new cases will result. Surge vaccination may have some effect - although there are reasons to doubt this, there at least don't seem to be any risks with trying it.

If you believe the models though, going to stage 4 in July looks mental.

I'm finding it a bit hard to swallow the models to be honest, with 70% of the population vaccinated (1 dose, but still). 20,000 hospital admissions a day? There are currently about 20 million unvaccinated people in the UK, and 1% of them are going to be hospitalised every single day? I realise some vaccinated people will still end up in hospital - but:
1) - we're still doing about 500,000 vaccination shots a day, so that 20 million will be significantly lower by the time we should be peaking.
2) about 15% of the population have had covid, so you'd expect a significant amount of the non-vaccinated population to have some non-vaccine immunity.

The unvaccinated population is low risk factor, which historically has only 1% chance of being hospitalised. If the entire unvaccinated population caught covid on the same day, you'd expect 20,000 hospitalisations for one day.

So yeah, I hate to be that guy, and the 20k is the worst case, but it seems too bad to be true. There something about the models I don't understand. At the very least, I think they must be assuming that vaccines don't stop transmission, although there is now some evidence that they do.

[Drygate]

Yeah, that all makes sense to me (so is probably wrong!).

As you say, even though there are lots of unvaccinated people, they were doing the younger but vulnerable people earlier, so those unvaccinated people will be relatively healthy and are less likely to end up in hospital (I'm assuming they were quite aggressive on who they were offering vaccines to outside of the age ranges eg an 20 year old with diabetes and asthma etc).

Although, how well do they think the vaccines work in the very elderly? Like an 85 year old with 4 comorbidities. Would they still end up in hospital even after both jabs? 

[MojoJojo]

*correction. There are about 29.85 million unvaccinated in the UK, when you count children who aren't being vaccinated.

[Gurke and Hare]

1) - we're still doing about 500,000 vaccination shots a day, so that 20 million will be significantly lower by the time we should be peaking.

How many of those 500k are first vaccines and how many are second? Or is it completely random from day to day?

[Old Thrashbarg]

Currently, there are (very roughly) around twice as many second doses as first doses administered per day. This will likely even out in the next couple of months. 12 weeks ago there were roughly 500k first doses a day being administered and near enough no second doses, so all those getting their first dose around then need to have their second dose now. But by April, first doses were at a very low level, so 12 weeks on from then (late June/early July) there won't be many second doses due, so you'd expect first doses to be the majority again.

[Drygate]

*correction. There are about 29.85 million unvaccinated in the UK, when you count children who aren't being vaccinated.

Children are a moot point when it comes to hospitalisations though?

[MojoJojo]

How many of those 500k are first vaccines and how many are second? Or is it completely random from day to day?

Seven day average of 175k.

[Ferris]

How many of those 500k are first vaccines and how many are second? Or is it completely random from day to day?

~170k first, ~350k second.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

[Gurke and Hare]

Thanks.