The Final FUCKDOWN

[Zetetic]

And there's always the issue that much of this is fundamentally regional - the government in Westminster will (arguably is, right now) happily let most of England run to a dreadful state if London's A&Es are just about coping (let alone the other countries of the union).

[Cloud]

Does anyone seriously think this government would lockdown again?

Sure, if the hospitals get that bad again, which it's looking like they will.

I know Boris has said all that about last lockdown ever, or by god let the bodies pile high, etc - but rule number 1: Boris U-turns.

[Fambo Number Mive]

It will probably follow what has been seen in previous lockdowns:

Hospitalsations and deaths get really high
People start calling for lockdowns. Some people stop visiting pubs/nightclubs/dogging spots/orgy rooms
Johnson says no and uses a couple of long words
Hospitalisations and deaths rise further, major incidents declared at some hospitals. Some people stop visiting non-essential shops.
Labour calls for lockdown
Johnson says no and makes some shitty quip
Hospitalists and deaths rise further. Major disruption to supply chain. Couple of Tory talking heads call for lockdown
Johnson says no
Two days later
Johnson finally locks down
His supporters claim he couldn't have known another lockdown was needed and call people who criticise him "Captain Hindsight"

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Sure, if the hospitals get that bad again, which it's looking like they will.

I know Boris has said all that about last lockdown ever, or by god let the bodies pile high, etc - but rule number 1: Boris U-turns.

Indeed, quite why anyone believes a word he says is astonishing.

[olliebean]

What counts as "major disruption to supply chain?" I thought we already had that from Brexit.

[Fambo Number Mive]

I would say disruption bad enough that there's a shortage of basic items, people can still find enough food to feed themselves but every part of the supermarket is affected. Might see the odd fight over certain goods.

I mean, this may very well not happen but if cases do get really bad I imagine there will be very reduced choice in shops for most people. Aside from the super-rich who will still be able to enjoy their caviar and duck eggs on their Zoom calls with Prime Minister Blood on Hands.

[Alberon]

I don't think there will be another lockdown. I'm not saying there won't be a need for one, but I don't think one will happen.

They might ban social gatherings, night clubs and audiences at sports again, but there will be no lockdown.

No matter how bad things get.

Masks will remain optional and you will be told to go out to work.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Meanwhile Taiwan, a sensible country, has reported zero coronavirus cases today.

[Ferris]

I don't think there will be another lockdown. I'm not saying there won't be a need for one, but I don't think one will happen.

They might ban social gatherings, night clubs and audiences at sports again, but there will be no lockdown.

No matter how bad things get.

Masks will remain optional and you will be told to go out to work.

Yup I said it in June (?) and still think it's about right - in order for a lockdown, you'd need real carnage. Not 900 people on vents but 5,000 and rising. Not 100 people going into the ground a day but 2k+.

I don't think there's the political will to do it again, unless it gets so patently awful that it's the only option left. That isn't to say there won't be a need for it, but unless the need is so undeniable that even Joe soap reading the express thinks it is a good idea, that's yer lot.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Yep and those numbers you're talking about are really feasible going into December.

[mothman]

Their endgame has to be running the NHS into the ground. Already started seeing the puff pieces about people choosing to go private for procedures because of the waiting lists.

Disclosure: my dad was one of them. But he has dementia and my mum was struggling to cope unless he had his cataracts seen to. Not enthused about it, guess I'm not getting an inheritance after all, but it's their money.

Next it'll be the jaunty ads from the insurers. "Why wait?" says the friendly reassuring actor or the BUPA or Nuffield commercial. Then more puff pieces about how all the fearmongering about US-style health insurance was precisely that, and the promise of tax cuts (with no NHS to pay for) "just when we all need it the most" will say the actor in party political broadcast who's pretending to budget for Christmas.

[Ferris]

Yep and those numbers you're talking about are really feasible going into December.

And once (if?) the UK gets there, then there will be a lockdown[nb]though I don't think it will get that bad. Preddos of 14k daily hospitalizations and 100k cases by July never materialized despite the removal of restricitons (which I think was fucking stupid and everyone involved is getting lucky rather than making a cunning calculation), and with 95% of the population having some form of antibody for the virus then it would take a pretty significant variant to change that[/nb].

Call it the Littlejohn test - if some self appointed arsehole tabloid columnist calls for a lockdown, then it will mean there's a popular groundswell of support for it, so the powers that he will take notice. Until then, I just don't see it.

[George Oscar Bluth II]

There won't be another lockdown. Don't forget that the vaxx fundementally changes the dynamic of it all. We won't ever be in a March 2020 situation again. But you can see a slow churn of cases at a high number increasing hospital numbers bit by bit and we might hit Jan 2021 levels again, at which point some restrictions surely come back in. Not lockdown because we don't need them anymore but events behind closed doors, capacity limits in pubs etc.

On the other hand the current tactic is to basically let the virus roll through in the summer to reduce the size of an outbreak in winter. At some point it runs out of people to infect.

[Huxleys Babkins]

The bigger concern is flu, I think. All we need is for the flu vaccine to miss the dominant strain like it did a few years back and the health service is in deep shit and that's before you add COVID to the mix.

The worrying thing is that we usually follow what's happened in Australia to decide which strains to vaccinate against, but as Oz has been in semi-lockdown all year, I'm not sure how confident we can be that we'll get it right.

[Zetetic]

On the bright side we did just have a little event called the COVID-19 PANDEMIC that killed a bunch of people prone to dying from respiratory infections.

[olliebean]

On the bright side we did just have a little event called the COVID-19 PANDEMIC that killed a bunch of people prone to dying from respiratory infections.

And also left a bunch of people with lung damage that makes them more susceptible to respiratory problems. Plus energy bills are way up, meaning it will be more difficult for people on low incomes to heat their homes adequately this winter, and a cold home increases the risk of flu developing into pneumonia.

[jamiefairlie]

There won't be another lockdown. Don't forget that the vaxx fundementally changes the dynamic of it all. We won't ever be in a March 2020 situation again. But you can see a slow churn of cases at a high number increasing hospital numbers bit by bit and we might hit Jan 2021 levels again, at which point some restrictions surely come back in. Not lockdown because we don't need them anymore but events behind closed doors, capacity limits in pubs etc.

On the other hand the current tactic is to basically let the virus roll through in the summer to reduce the size of an outbreak in winter. At some point it runs out of people to infect.

No it doesn't. Immunity wanes, virus mutates, the cycle of reinfection continues.

[mothman]

Yes, when I hear people saying "Oh, it'll just become the new 'flu" I think, well, we've still got the old 'flu too, and in fact there are loads of different/new ones prevalent every year. I think people hope they'll just be able to shrug off/ignore people dying of COVID just like they do the 'flu every year.

[stonkers]

Yes, when I hear people saying "Oh, it'll just become the new 'flu" I think, well, we've still got the old 'flu too, and in fact there are loads of different/new ones prevalent every year. I think people hope they'll just be able to shrug off/ignore people dying of COVID just like they do the 'flu every year.

Specifically we've still got the Spanish flu strain, which killed a shiteload more people than Covid has so far. Covid isn't going anywhere and yeah at some point we have to accept there is going to be a certain level of illness and death and there's only so much you can reasonably do about it, which mainly means vaccinating as many people as possible. 

[George Oscar Bluth II]

No it doesn't. Immunity wanes, virus mutates, the cycle of reinfection continues.

Immunity seems to last at least six months tho, probably more. Second infections are a tiny % of all known infections. Our best guess at the moment is that second infections will be, in the main, a lot milder than first infections for most of us.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Specifically we've still got the Spanish flu strain, which killed a shiteload more people than Covid has so far

I love the vague implication that one can do a flat comparison of those two pandemics without the need to investigate any sort of factors other than numbers dead.

[stonkers]

I love the vague implication that one can do a flat comparison of those two pandemics without the need to investigate any sort of factors other than numbers dead.

I was just responding to mothman's flu comparison, although I don't think comparing two global respiratory disease pandemics is unreasonable. Saying "it's just the flu" in March 2020 was stupid, saying it when you have a population with widespread immunity from a combination of infection and several extremely effective vaccines is a different story (and I'm not syaing we're at that point yet).

[mothman]

Just to be clear though, I'm not the one comparing/equating the flu in general, or the Spanish Flu in particular, with COVID.  It seems to be COVID deniers, antivaxxers etc. who do so.[nb]I doubt many of them know anything about the Spanish Flu epidemic, and certainly not that the name itself represents one of the most cynical (but successful) rebranding campaigns ever, blaming an epidemic that killed millions, but likely started in the US, on another country.[/nb] They would very much like to pretend it's just this minor unremarkable thing that happens to other people every year.

[evilcommiedictator]

Ah good, rationing test tubes now lads!
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1431829158179622912

[George Oscar Bluth II]

Just to be clear though, I'm not the one comparing/equating the flu in general, or the Spanish Flu in particular, with COVID.  It seems to be COVID deniers, antivaxxers etc. who do so.[nb]I doubt many of them know anything about the Spanish Flu epidemic, and certainly not that the name itself represents one of the most cynical (but successful) rebranding campaigns ever, blaming an epidemic that killed millions, but likely started in the US, on another country.[/nb] They would very much like to pretend it's just this minor unremarkable thing that happens to other people every year.

I really really recommend Laura Spinney's "Pale Rider" which is on the subject of the "Spanish flu". The reason it was the "Spanish" flu was because, as a neutral party in World War 1, their press was uncensored so was reporting what was actually happening, while the media in the UK, France, Germany etc didn't.

[A Hat Like That]

Will second the recommendation of Pale Rider. It's a great book, mixes the history, science, geography etc really well.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Back into the 40k a day territory, hospital numbers still rising steadily. Autumn on the way.

[MojoJojo]

"steadily" is not rapidly though. And at under 10k in hospital we're a long way from the 40k peaks we've had before. And it looks like case numbers are levelling off.

It's really hard to see how it ends better than this.

[Alberon]

At the moment it's in the 'very bad' rather than the 'catastrophic' zone. There's two hurdles to come. Schools and universities going back and then the winter.

The major issue with hospitals is not really if Covid hospilisations reach previous peaks (which, unless we're really unlucky with a new variant, they won't), but if they can cope with Covid and all the normal stuff they do, large amounts of which has had to be postponed during large parts of the pandemic.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Yep, critically important to bear in mind.

Most of the predictions re Delta chart a curve but surely with colder weather and different activity on the way, along with the continuing tailoff of public vigilance re: distancing and mask wearing, we are looking at something more like waves with the 'tidemark' or water line increasing as we move through the next 6 months.

What is conceivably going to stop that other than all of: winter period of lockdown/reinstatement and reinforcement of public behaviour/better vaccines/boosters?

I believe vaccines have weakened the link between infections and serious illness deaths but not capped the potential impact sufficiently to ride everything out, which is what we were hoping for.

What news indicates otherwise, I would be interested to read it.