The Final FUCKDOWN

[poo]

Sage predicting 7,000 hospitalisations per day at the next expected peak mid-late Oct. contrasts with what is going on right now with rates falling across all age groups in most parts of UK. Not cold yet though is it.

[poo]

What to do then?


Frig like christing cunting fuck while you've got the lungs.

[Zetetic]

Scottish government considering bringing in the military to help the ambulance service.

Unless they're going to dig mass graves out the back of the hospitals to speed discharges up, I can't see how they're going to have much impact after the first couple of hours.

(It'd be good practice for the death squads as well.)

[Ferris]

Sage predicting 7,000 hospitalisations per day at the next expected peak mid-late Oct. contrasts with what is going on right now with rates falling across all age groups in most parts of UK. Not cold yet though is it.

Well they're saying there might be 2k-7k at a peak of a hypothetical wave (if it happens).

I'm not saying it won't, but Sage is hardly saying "7k a day definitely" is nailed on either, for whatever that's worth.

Frig like christing cunting fuck while you've got the lungs.

That's my plan. Cases rocketing up again here, boy at home with a 104f fever pending our PCR tests, trying to work and do my MA all at the same time, in the shit, loving it.

[poo]

No sorry that was the mid-range scenario

[Ferris]

No sorry that was the mid-range scenario

Was it? Fuckdown Forecast has been updated since last I looked!

Full speed ahead, I say.

[MojoJojo]

We are entering autumn with more cases than we had last year, more people in hospital than this time last year and a series of conditions which encourage infection, along with a back to the office push which means more commuting and more people in the same buildings during worse weather.

Comparing in this fashion doesn't really make sense, and it's the rate of change that's more important than absolute numbers. Yes, the Sage report is worrying, but sage were also predicting 10000 admissions a day by the beginning of August - which isn't to say it should be ignored, just not to abandon all hope. And yes, everything isn't fine and dandy, the number in hospital needs start going down instead of up.

What is true is that instead of all the numbers steadily creeping up seeming to point to an inevitable wave and lockdown, one of the numbers is going down, leading to some hope that we might be through the worst of it.

[Alberon]

No one really knows what a vaccinated Autumn and Winter look like yet. In the spring we'll have a much better idea of what the future will be like.

I'm not that fearful, but I expect we'll be bumping along at a 1,000 dead a week for a long while yet.

[jobotic]

Looking at the NHSE death stats, they don't look much different in terms of proportion by age to how they have always looked.

Aren't most older people vaccinated now so are these people who have been vaccinated but are still vulnerable dying?

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

What is true is that instead of all the numbers steadily creeping up seeming to point to an inevitable wave and lockdown, one of the numbers is going down, leading to some hope that we might be through the worst of it.

I'm afraid such short term data is so limited in use that it doesn't and shouldn't provide me with any particular confidence until that is backed up over time and resilient through the pressure factors heading into Autumn and Winter.

The fact that SAGE and the UK government have gone so early on it this time either shows an unusual and unprecedented organisation on the UK governments part for expectation management, or it really is fuckdown of some sort or other this Christmas. I am inclined to believe the latter and that 'Plan B' will be enacted, along with a new Plan C they will invent. Just a prediction though.

[Drygate]

Looking at the NHSE death stats, they don't look much different in terms of proportion by age to how they have always looked.

Aren't most older people vaccinated now so are these people who have been vaccinated but are still vulnerable dying?

The vaccines reduce your risk of dying so it's still going to look similar in terms of who was dying before. Just less people from each group dying.

I read that a healthy vaxxed 80 year old now has the same risk of dying as an unvaxxed 40 year old. If true, those healthy 80 year old won't be dying, but unhealthy ones are probably still in trouble.

[Ferris]

No one really knows what a vaccinated Autumn and Winter look like yet. In the spring we'll have a much better idea of what the future will be like.

I'm not that fearful, but I expect we'll be bumping along at a 1,000 dead a week for a long while yet.

Someone (Zet?) mentioned the "harvest rates" a few pages back. I wonder if that comes into play at any point (ie a lot of vulnerable have already been bumped off so there's a smaller pool of at risk people floating about and death rates and total numbers will be lower).

When are schools back in the UK? Are they there already?

Edit: lazy Ferris, had a google. Yeah they've been back ~2 weeks so the next few weeks will be telling in terms of cases and spreading. Over the undetectable honeymoon phase now.

[Drygate]

Obesity is well up over the lock downs so I'm sure there are plenty of newly vulnerable people to harvest.

It's practically the pandemic of the obese as it is.

[jobotic]

Surely these new "as used by Trump" drugs will help matters.

[jamiefairlie]

Monoclonal antibodies are now approved and available (well we'll see) in most western countries and are very effective in treating infected people.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Obesity is well up over the lock downs so I'm sure there are plenty of newly vulnerable people to harvest.

It's practically the pandemic of the obese as it is.

It really isn't practically the pandemic of the obese. Yes, obese people are more at risk than the non obese but there are millions of clinically vulnerable and clinically extremely vulnerable people who arent obese who are still at great risk despite having had two jabs. And of course many elderly people will still be at risk despite having had two jabs.

Them we have the 19% or so of people who haven't had two jabs yet.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Some dickhead constantly coughing with his face mask down on my train. My station is the next stop, not sure what more I can do.

[chveik]

fucking kill him

[jobotic]

Alright Steve Albini, we're all upset

[bgmnts]

So is Christmas going to be fucked down then? What's the word?

[Alberon]

It is. Unfortunately you will be allowed to spend it with your extended family.

[mothman]

Bollocks.

[MojoJojo]

Cases continuing to fall, and now admissions starting to drop as well. Lets hope it continues enough that the actual number in hospital starts going down instead of up.

[Cloud]

Been coming down nicely but seems to be levelling off again from what I saw.  Long as it's not up like we all feared when the kids went back.

All seemed to coincide with the Indian Summer..

Mask wearing definitely not a thing any more.  I still wear one in the shops but am an extreme minority, like about 1 in 50.

[Uncle TechTip]

Here in Chester it's still strong. It's gradually fading away but still at least 1 in 2. Me, I "keep" "forgetting" mine but promise to try harder. Often I'm the only one.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Cases continuing to fall, and now admissions starting to drop as well. Lets hope it continues enough that the actual number in hospital starts going down instead of up.

What's more important to focus on is what is currently driving that and what relevance that has to what's coming up in the months ahead.

[mothman]

Mask wearing definitely not a thing any more.  I still wear one in the shops but am an extreme minority, like about 1 in 50.

Likewise. None of the general cunt population bothers anymore.

[Drygate]

Christmas lock down incoming

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/20/boris-johnson-refuses-to-rule-out-christmas-covid-disruption

[Fambo Number Mive]

Well he's right not to rule it out, it doesn't mean it's likely to happen.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Unions are warning that mask wearing on public transport has dropped significantly since it no longer became a legal requirement in England in July.

The proportion of people using face coverings at major railway stations is estimated to have slumped from around 80% to around 20%.

A government spokesperson said the lifting of restrictions relied on people taking "personal responsibility".

"The guidance is clear that people are expected and recommended to wear a mask when they come into contact with people they don't normally meet in enclosed and crowded spaces.

"It is open to transport operators to decide if they want to implement their own policies, working within their particular environment."..

It's laughable how they are pushing the responsibility onto transport providers. It was hard enough to get people who can wear masks to wear masks when you legally had to, and now the "people should wear masks in certain situations but if they don't nothing will happen" advice is clearly there so the government can avoid alienating their anti-mask base while claiming they are doing something.