Poll

Have we got one more to go before the end of 2021?

Yes.
88 (66.2%)
No.
35 (26.3%)
Young people probably spread it in the first place so prepare to meet thy doom 😂😂😂
10 (7.5%)

Total Members Voted: 133

Author Topic: The Final FUCKDOWN  (Read 79204 times)

Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #90 on: June 06, 2021, 05:29:07 PM »
As the resident Joe Bloggs, intellectually speaking, can someone explain what the fuck that graph means in layman's terms?

TOTAL FUCKDOWN

mobias

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #91 on: June 06, 2021, 05:35:44 PM »
As the resident Joe Bloggs, intellectually speaking, can someone explain what the fuck that graph means in layman's terms?

Best case scenario is we'll see a wave by the end of July thats a bit less than last Spring. Worst case scenario is as Chedney points out total fuckdown. I'm not quite sure how the worst case scenario comes about though. Presumably the delta variant being 70% or 80% more transmissible and and the vaccines being less effective than they currently seem to be? Or maybe a new vaccine avoiding variant springing up? Or both perhaps. 

bakabaka

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #92 on: June 06, 2021, 05:39:10 PM »
As the resident Joe Bloggs, intellectually speaking, can someone explain what the fuck that graph means in layman's terms?
More transmissable = more cases, and
Even more transmissable = even more cases, and
Yet more transmissable = yet more cases, and
Fuckton more transmissable = fuckton more cases.
But it will all be over in time for my birthday.

And this is what is important.

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #93 on: June 06, 2021, 05:48:37 PM »
I dont think its predicting any fuckdown. There will be increased hospitalisations - we’re already in that window now, lagging by about 18 days behind cases.

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #94 on: June 06, 2021, 08:47:17 PM »
Interesting stuff. There's a sense of pre-storm stillness to things. The beginning of murmurs about things not working out as hoped. Obviously I would rather the remaining sectors could safely reopen but I don't see the value in engaging the final step on 21st June unless there is some serious data backing up that what's happening in Bolton etc is a flash in the pan. Tbf, Bolton's cases are dropping as are Bedford's but it is now spreading regionally quite quickly. Perhaps hospitals will be able to cope this time if there is a lower ceiling, but seems very risky to leave them defenceless apart from 50% complete vaccine program. Leeds' own data is looking shit so I'm looking forward to my jab tomorrow.

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #95 on: June 06, 2021, 08:57:15 PM »
Yes, they were saying Delta has quite a rapid burn off, hence Bolton.

MojoJojo

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #96 on: June 07, 2021, 09:33:00 AM »
That's the SAGE model from last month. Worth noting that it assumes vaccines/natural immunity as effective against the variant, which there seems to be fair indication they're not (at least until the second shot).

I dunno. I said a while back I think those models look too bad to be true, but it's hard to come up with reasons why they're pessimistic that haven't been factored in.

Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #97 on: June 09, 2021, 09:09:08 AM »
Bad: exponential growth is back, primarily among younger people.
Good: Protection against the Delta Variant after one jab seems better than earlier thought.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351586786037763

Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #98 on: June 09, 2021, 10:30:28 AM »
told ye

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #99 on: June 09, 2021, 10:30:31 AM »
That's the SAGE model from last month. Worth noting that it assumes vaccines/natural immunity as effective against the variant, which there seems to be fair indication they're not (at least until the second shot).

I dunno. I said a while back I think those models look too bad to be true, but it's hard to come up with reasons why they're pessimistic that haven't been factored in.

First shot is around 50% for AZ, slightly higher for Pfizer, male lower than female. 2nd shot, both AZ and Pfizer shoot up to around 70-90% efficacy, with the same differenc between vaccine and gender.

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #100 on: June 09, 2021, 10:32:35 AM »
Bad: exponential growth is back, primarily among younger people.
Good: Protection against the Delta Variant after one jab seems better than earlier thought.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351586786037763

Quote
The latest data suggests that two doses of a vaccine offer very high protection against hospital admission, likely above 95%, and a single dose may also offer something in the region of 70% protection

Good news. But 70% was the top end (Pfizer, female) from the chart I saw (admittedly last week - on holiday this week).

MojoJojo

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #101 on: June 09, 2021, 10:41:33 AM »
First shot is around 50% for AZ, slightly higher for Pfizer, male lower than female. 2nd shot, both AZ and Pfizer shoot up to around 70-90% efficacy, with the same differenc between vaccine and gender.

The SAGE model is assuming a single dose is 80-85% efficacy and double dose 90-95% efficient at reducing hospital admissions.

Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #102 on: June 09, 2021, 01:19:09 PM »
Best thing about that is that it's primarily among younger people.

Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #103 on: June 09, 2021, 01:56:11 PM »
Assuming those rates of efficacy are correct, what percentage of the population needs both doses to keep things manageable or even achieve herd immunity?

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #104 on: June 09, 2021, 02:17:58 PM »
The SAGE model is assuming a single dose is 80-85% efficacy and double dose 90-95% efficient at reducing hospital admissions.

that is the model - the data was not that convincing

MojoJojo

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #105 on: June 09, 2021, 02:27:51 PM »
My point was the model that predicts a peak of around 5000 admissions a day from the previous day assumes vaccines are more effective than they appear to be.

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #106 on: June 09, 2021, 02:32:47 PM »
At the current rate of increase there will be around 24,000 cases a day in a month's time, similar data which caused the government to go into the November quasi-lockdown. I will still be a month away from my 2nd jab and I'm 34, so seems like we have potentially not got there in time to prevent another wave.

Difficult to compare as we appear to have a much more easily transmissible virus, yet also more testing happening than then, and specific age groups and regions currently affected. If there are regional bursts that die away and they don't all happen at the same time, perhaps hospitals might be able to cope?


MojoJojo

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #107 on: June 09, 2021, 02:40:52 PM »
I think the regional burst seemingly dying down quite quickly can be probably be attributed to the surge testing/vaccinations.

The hope now seems to be that vaccinations mean that there will be far fewer hospital admissions even with a big peak in cases. But it seems that there just isn't the data to support that yet. Feels like they're going to have to wait till the last minute before making a decision about the 21st.

Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #108 on: June 09, 2021, 02:47:54 PM »
Several generally reliable people have retweeted this thread which models two scenarios for the UK based on current data: https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1401806768519405569.

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #109 on: June 09, 2021, 02:50:16 PM »
Surprised there's even a discussion. Current rules are producing these outcomes, so the only possible alternative outcomes a further reopening branded as 'Freedom Day' will produce are even worse ones.

In terms of hospital cases I'm happy to wait and see up to a point, but we should be looking at staying with the current rules, perhaps going back to April's if we have to, not looking at the current rules as something that we must urgently escape from.

If people respect the vaccine programme they also need to respect that it needs time to be completed.

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #110 on: June 09, 2021, 02:54:59 PM »
Several generally reliable people have retweeted this thread which models two scenarios for the UK based on current data: https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1401806768519405569.

Surely regardless of the status of the vaccine program or new variants we will see a rise in hospital admissions due to Covid related illness in winter. Surprised to see that model charts a low point in January/Feb.

MojoJojo

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #111 on: June 10, 2021, 07:13:23 AM »
Several generally reliable people have retweeted this thread which models two scenarios for the UK based on current data: https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1401806768519405569.
I think what we can all agree on is twitter is terrible.

Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #112 on: June 10, 2021, 08:04:12 AM »
Another variable is that young people will occupy beds for longer even if/because they don't die.

Are bunk vents an option?

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #113 on: June 10, 2021, 08:15:15 AM »
I think what we can all agree on is twitter is terrible.

Everybody's a learned expert now. Although some have more right to that, the structure and cadence of those twitter threads are appalling - like being 'schooled' by a particularly obnoxious toff.

mobias

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #114 on: June 10, 2021, 08:59:12 AM »
The SAGE and independent SAGE scientists I follow on Twitter have all been great during this pandemic. You get really important information right from the horses mouth, so to speak, without it being distilled via a BBC or press journalist who as likely as not has little understanding of what they're actually speaking about. Thank god I've had Twitter and not had to rely on No 10 press briefings during this pandemic, put it that way.


MojoJojo

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #115 on: June 10, 2021, 09:15:55 AM »
Another variable is that young people will occupy beds for longer even if/because they don't die.

I think that's a bit of an unknown. I don't think old people were dying particularly quickly, even relatively minor issues can keep elderly people in hospitals for months, and it can often be difficult to find somewhere to safely discharge an old person. There was some optimistic NHS bod saying the younger admissions were a lot simpler and implied they were easier for the NHS to manage than the previous waves.

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #116 on: June 10, 2021, 09:16:28 AM »
^^

Yes, it's the SAGE scientists jobs, I would expect them to conduct themselves with due rigour. I've sat in one SAGE meeting and it was considered and thoughtful, as are all government science meetings I attend. It's all very collegiate.

Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #117 on: June 10, 2021, 09:25:03 AM »
I think that's a bit of an unknown. I don't think old people were dying particularly quickly, even relatively minor issues can keep elderly people in hospitals for months, and it can often be difficult to find somewhere to safely discharge an old person. There was some optimistic NHS bod saying the younger admissions were a lot simpler and implied they were easier for the NHS to manage than the previous waves.

Thats good to hear. The talk over the last year was that the 30-50-something patients occupied beds for considerably longer than the 50+ patients and the buggers wouldn't die. Would be a bonus if they were in and out after a quick vent.

Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #118 on: June 10, 2021, 09:30:15 AM »
^^

Yes, it's the SAGE scientists jobs, I would expect them to conduct themselves with due rigour. I've sat in one SAGE meeting and it was considered and thoughtful, as are all government science meetings I attend. It's all very collegiate.

Except for the spirit cooking.

Zetetic

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #119 on: June 10, 2021, 09:58:20 AM »
I've sat in one SAGE meeting and it was considered and thoughtful, as are all government science meetings I attend. It's all very collegiate.
Unless you're from the Welsh or Scottish Governments in which case you're only allowed to attend as an observer.

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