The Final FUCKDOWN

[jamiefairlie]

This ^^^ is so obvious it feels daft to point it out, but the narrative that seems to being pushed is "blame the app". Not terribly surprising, though.

Welcome to the world of software developers, "but it's doing exactly what we asked for, why is it doing that, make it do a different thing!"

[olliebean]

Apparently the thinking behind the divergence in the ZOE figures has to do with the demographics of ZOE users. ZOE users are significantly more likely to be vaccinated. So whilst the ZOE figures have been bang on throughout the pandemic, they now don't really represent the full population due to skewing towards the fully vaccinated proportion of the population.

They've corrected for this now, and consequently their daily new cases estimate rose from 30 something thousand yesterday to 60 thousand today.

[Cuellar]

Cases down 8.5k from last week.

Open the nightclubs!

[olliebean]

Cases down 8.5k from last week.

Open the nightclubs!

How's that? It says up 63,391 (24.2%) on the last 7 days.

[jobotic]

How's that? It says up 63,391 (24.2%) on the last 7 days.

It's just a comparison between today's cases and last Thursday's case.

[Ferris]

How's that? It says up 63,391 (24.2%) on the last 7 days.

Daily new cases vs total active cases I think?

[BlodwynPig]

It's just a comparison between today's cases and last Thursday's case.

Which is not the correct way to interpret the data, of course

[Bernice]

Which is not the correct way to interpret the data, of course

It's not really 'data' unless you're wearing a monocular loupe and tearing apart clods of stranger turds with your bare hands.

[vanilla.coffee]

Food delivery depot workers and drivers can ignore the tracking app and won't need to isolate now.
It's still not the Enya video we were all hoping for yet is it?

[olliebean]

So instead of being off work because they've been pinged by the app and might have Covid, they'll be in work and the small proportion of them who do have Covid will spread it around, and eventually more people will be off work because they definitely do have Covid than would have been off work because they'd been pinged.

Meanwhile, the main thing causing shortages of delivery drivers is Brexit. The "pingdemic" is just another blame-shifting exercise.

[BlodwynPig]

It's not really 'data' unless you're wearing a monocular loupe and tearing apart clods of stranger turds with your bare hands.

I took part in a debate last night on this very topic, coincidentally. To be aired in August

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Another fall in cases vs. same time last week. Wild swing, any particular reason?

Hospitalisations and deaths similar to last few days.

[Big Mclargehuge]

New Variation's just been confirmed. 16 cases and counting. Classic Boris.

[Chedney Honks]

Covid is done. Put a few pins in the cunt.

[BlodwynPig]

Another fall in cases vs. same time last week. Wild swing, any particular reason?

Hospitalisations and deaths similar to last few days.

Lower testing

[Cloud]

Another fall in cases vs. same time last week. Wild swing, any particular reason?

Schools broke up, so no more regular testing of kids for a bit.  Expect a new wave when they go back if this one dies down

[Fambo Number Mive]

Some Underground lines are closed on weekends due to engineering work, and the spread of COVID has closed even more lines today. Due to staff shortages the Hammersmith and City and Circle lines are closed and the Central Line is running with severe delays due to train cancellations.

There's also no service between Edgware Road and High Street Kensington on the District Line between 06:45 and 11:00 due to staff shortages. Northern Line has minor delays due to train cancellations.

No service on the Metropolitan Line until 12 - not sure if this is COVID related, I presume not if replacement buses are operarting.

And that's with masks being required on the tube - imagine how many more staff would need to isolate if that hadn't been put in place.

I imagine delays also help spread COVID as people will be on the Tube for longer.

[Ferris]

Lower testing

Looks like a little over 1m tests a day that I can see, highest level since April 29.

Could be the end of the wave? Or beginning of the end anyway. At a certain point it just runs out of people to infect I suppose.

[jamiefairlie]

Looks like a little over 1m tests a day that I can see, highest level since April 29.

Could be the end of the wave? Or beginning of the end anyway. At a certain point it just runs out of people to infect I suppose.

Depends on mutation ability and reinfection rate. Having the flu one year doesn't stop you getting it the next.

[olliebean]

Owen Jones has got it.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Owen Jones has got it.

A relief, a man in the pub said Owen Jones was more right wing than Hitler.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Tfl have closed Aldgate, Barbican and Temple stations "Due to the temporary unavailability of station staff."

All these stations have other stations nearby, but one wonders how much more disruption there will be to the tube due to COVID.

[BlodwynPig]

Looks like a little over 1m tests a day that I can see, highest level since April 29.

Could be the end of the wave? Or beginning of the end anyway. At a certain point it just runs out of people to infect I suppose.

Yes, I realised its not a testing thing the next day when I was told it wasn't a testing thing.

It would be odd that Freedom day results in the end of the wave - unless Delta has burned out? (as you say). This is where wastewater data will be critical. That showed a massive spike over the last 7 days across all regions after a strange dip and plateau the preceding week(s) [across majority of regions, NE had a shorter dip more lately]

[Kankurette]

A relief, a man in the pub said Owen Jones was more right wing than Hitler.

I missed the bit where Owen Jones did a genocide.

[mothman]

Personally I find him an odious little twerp, but he's on the right - er, correct side so, I dunno, thoughts & prayers or whatevs.

[Ferris]

Yes, I realised its not a testing thing the next day when I was told it wasn't a testing thing.

It would be odd that Freedom day results in the end of the wave - unless Delta has burned out? (as you say). This is where wastewater data will be critical. That showed a massive spike over the last 7 days across all regions after a strange dip and plateau the preceding week(s) [across majority of regions, NE had a shorter dip more lately]

I think what I've taken from spikes is that there doesn't seem to be a logical end point for them (or there is, but it's opaque or possibly a combination of factors that we don't know about or at least I don't).

The spikes can't continue indefinitely. I think waves make certain people vulnerable - usually the young and working class because that's who has to travel on public transit to go to work every day while Mr and Mrs Beige slide on their suburban loafers, put a teabag in their "Keep Calm & Carry On!" mug and work from home.

At a certain point, everyone who's at risk basically gets it, the wave dies back, and the oldies come out of semi-hibernation which keeps the low levels of virus ticking over until another wave starts. That said, if this is the end then I don't think we'll see restrictions anywhere. It'll be painted as a success because "only" however many hundreds of people died and this is just the cost of business.

Grim stuff.

[olliebean]

The spikes can't continue indefinitely.

Remind me, how long has flu been spiking every winter? (Except last year, for very relevant reasons.)

[Zetetic]

Flu has significant advantages for being able evade existing immunity on an annual basis that coronaviruses in general do not, if we're looking for reasons to be optimistic.

(Although ensuring that we build large reservoirs amongst both the young and the global south seem like a decent start at levelling the playing field.)

[Ferris]

Remind me, how long has flu been spiking every winter? (Except last year, for very relevant reasons.)

Sorry, I didn't word that clearly - spikes will keep happening, but the individual spikes themselves cannot continue to grow exponentially and indefinitely because you eventually run out of people and while there will always be some transmissibility, everyone in the country isn't meeting everyone else in the country every single day so there's a daily infection limit at some point.

I was making the point that a line going up can't go up forever, basically, so each spike must have an end point, so what determines that.

[BlodwynPig]

Sorry, I didn't word that clearly - spikes will keep happening, but the individual spikes themselves cannot continue to grow exponentially and indefinitely because you eventually run out of people and while there will always be some transmissibility, everyone in the country isn't meeting everyone else in the country every single day so there's a daily infection limit at some point.

I was making the point that a line going up can't go up forever, basically, so each spike must have an end point, so what determines that.

but it can become asymptotically stable (it won't)