The Final FUCKDOWN

[katzenjammer]

but it can become asymptotically stable (it won't)

Is it possible and had anyone considers engineering it to be? I'm guessing this would be a terrible idea by the way

[Milo]

What you've got there is Snowpiercer but with viruses rather than climate change.

[BlodwynPig]

Is it possible and had anyone considers engineering it to be? I'm guessing this would be a terrible idea by the way

Plenty of papers - skim reading, the last one may be the easiest to read.

https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2021278?viewType=HTML

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32989381/

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379720321203

https://advancesindifferenceequations.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13662-020-02958-6

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2021.634251/full

[Barry Admin]

I'm presuming this thread is about a third wave.

My Mum's been telling me today about the calls going out from the hospital's here. Two of them are asking extra staff to come in, and she says it's the first time she's seen that in ages. Everyone getting dressed up in full PPE again too.

[Chedney Honks]

It's about whether there will be any further lockdown in 2021.

Seems as long as the under 30s drag their heels getting jabbed, there's every chance this will require some further steps to hopefully quash it. Shame we run out of Moderna and Pfizer just when things are opening up.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

450 dead in the UK last week, 59% up on previous 7 days. At same rate of growth we are back to around 100+ dead a day very soon.

[MojoJojo]

Yes, I realised its not a testing thing the next day when I was told it wasn't a testing thing.

It would be odd that Freedom day results in the end of the wave - unless Delta has burned out? (as you say). This is where wastewater data will be critical. That showed a massive spike over the last 7 days across all regions after a strange dip and plateau the preceding week(s) [across majority of regions, NE had a shorter dip more lately]

Potentially schools/universities starting summer holidays? Although I think it's a little soon for that to be showing up, primary schools round here have only just broken up.

[Old Thrashbarg]

The Euros seem to have been the main driver of the surge in infections, with noticeable peaks in cases, particularly amoungst younger age groups and males, four days after each England game. And now, since the conclusion, cases are dropping.

The thread starting at https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1419427681440043008 is a reasonable summary of that data. With the following demonstrating the impact of the final:



The impact of the easing of restrictions against the impact of schools closing is probably yet to be seen.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1419683023193247744?s=19

Here's the latest on hospital admissions

Never been so unsure what's happening or going to happen now.

[Fambo Number Mive]

131 deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported today. Cases going down (23,511 reported today) but so is testing (810,459 tests reported yesterday).

[MojoJojo]

I don't think the reduced testing can explain the fall in cases though. I'm a bit astonished by how rapid cases are dropping off.

[Cuellar]

I think people have just had enough of covid

[Ferris]

I don't think the reduced testing can explain the fall in cases though. I'm a bit astonished by how rapid cases are dropping off.

Spikes seem to fall as quickly as they rise[nb]though they keep a long tail so a low level of cases rumbles on[/nb]. It's very odd.

[Huxleys Babkins]

I suspect the sheer number of people who've been double jabbed or have already had it means that most getting it now don't realise it and are carrying on as normal and putting any symptoms down to a cold or hay fever and therefore not getting tested. Add to that the ignorant twats who have the "classic" symptoms but don't give a fuck/are in denial and are not getting tested either.

So you're effectively left with those having to lateral flow for work/travel/leisure, those who have the "classic" symptoms who do report and those who end up hospitalised as the only people staying on the radar.

[BlodwynPig]

B.1.621 for the autumn wave

[Chedney Honks]

Can I recommend another cool name for it?

EFD variant.

[chveik]

just GET COVID DONE for fucks sake

[Theremin]

OPEN THE PUBS

[MojoJojo]

I suspect the sheer number of people who've been double jabbed or have already had it means that most getting it now don't realise it and are carrying on as normal and putting any symptoms down to a cold or hay fever and therefore not getting tested. Add to that the ignorant twats who have the "classic" symptoms but don't give a fuck/are in denial and are not getting tested either.

None of that has really changed though, except the number of people vaccinated. And that's been dropping for awhile. Although I haven't tried to count the delay before that has an effect in.

My problem is it's the first time we've had a peak that couldn't be timed to a lockdown - cases are going down without tighter restrictions being imposed. I'd guess if I knew how to do the maths this could be predicted from the vaccine reducing transmission.

An peak not linked to lock down does give hope we're done with lockdown.

[Huxleys Babkins]

None of that has really changed though, except the number of people vaccinated. And that's been dropping for awhile. Although I haven't tried to count the delay before that has an effect in.

My problem is it's the first time we've had a peak that couldn't be timed to a lockdown - cases are going down without tighter restrictions being imposed. I'd guess if I knew how to do the maths this could be predicted from the vaccine reducing transmission.

An peak not linked to lock down does give hope we're done with lockdown.

Even though vaccination numbers are going down, the vast majority of those still not vaccinated are young people and we know that severity of symptoms reduces with age. We also know that the delta strain, whilst more infectious, generally comes with different, less severe symptoms and therefore won't necessarily prompt people to test.

Without wanting to jump the gun as we're still a few days out from seeing what the effects of "Freedom Day" are, this does very much feel like how I'm expecting "living with the virus" to feel like.

[steveh]

We also know that the delta strain, whilst more infectious, generally comes with different, less severe symptoms and therefore won't necessarily prompt people to test.

Not sure about less severe symptoms - perhaps symptoms that make it more likely to be mistaken for a cold in its milder form. There are symptoms in some patients that have been reported to be noticeably worse than earlier variants, including hearing loss, greater gastrointestinal issues and an increased risk of blood clots.

[Huxleys Babkins]

Less severe in the vast majority of cases, though, which is what's keeping the numbers down. Even with those symptoms you've mentioned, you wouldn't automatically think "I must get tested" if you suffered hearing loss or stomach pain without any of the "usual" symptoms.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

At this point numbers in hospital are the thing to focus on, even if the infections get no higher than 20,000 a day from here, the feed through continues, the NHS breaking point threshold is lower than winter due to staff absences and demand in other areas.

The death toll yesterday was the worst for months yet covered over by the general euphoria over the dip in infections.

[MojoJojo]

At this point numbers in hospital are the thing to focus on, even if the infections get no higher than 20,000 a day from here, the feed through continues, the NHS breaking point threshold is lower than winter due to staff absences and demand in other areas.

The death toll yesterday was the worst for months yet covered over by the general euphoria over the dip in infections.

This seems unnecessarily negative. There are about 5k patients in hospital, compared to 40k in January. New admissions should start to drop soon, assuming it tracks cases. The number of people in hospital has gone up by 1300 in the last week. Even if admission stay at current levels, it would take 6 months to reach the January level.

[Ferris]

And hospitalizations lag cases by a week or two from what I've seen, so if anything you'd expect them to decline along with deaths (as long as cases keep dropping). It seems like this wave is receding, but who knows if it'll be the last one.

Also worth noting if you take the start of this wave to be mid June, the UK has doled out 11m vaccines since then (and gained protection from 8m more that were given in early June that needed two weeks to build immunity), on top of however many hundreds of thousands of resolved cases. That's a lot of additional protection in the general population.

I doubt there will be more waves like this, and I doubt even more that the government will do anything about them in future - hospitals have survived and Joe public has determined not enough people going in the ground to change behaviour so I think this is what living with the virus looks like. As boosters come along and more people get their first/second shots, they will get less and less impactful (if they occur at all).

[Fambo Number Mive]

Really hope the uptake of flu vaccinations is high this year as well, as there are concerns that low prevalence over the past months could lead to a drop in immunity among the population, and flu stretched the NHS most winters even pre-pandemic.

[Ferris]

Still, you have to laugh.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

This seems unnecessarily negative. There are about 5k patients in hospital, compared to 40k in January. New admissions should start to drop soon, assuming it tracks cases. The number of people in hospital has gone up by 1300 in the last week. Even if admission stay at current levels, it would take 6 months to reach the January level.

It doesnt have to reach January levels or even close to. NHS breaking point is dependent on staffing levels and what else is affecting the service. It's well publicised what the current issues are and the service is currently less capable of dealing with an influx, anecdotally staff are already reporting that it feels like how it was in January. A continuing rise to 10,000+ through the next 4 weeks and that becomes a critical problem.

[Milo]

if you suffered hearing loss

Hearing loss is one? Shit, I've been using Otex because the telly has been seeming really quiet on the usual volume and I assumed my ears were a bit clogged.

[Bernice]

Ha, had the same reaction on reading this before and instantly did a lateral flow test. I don't think it's a particularly common symptom.