Poll

Have we got one more to go before the end of 2021?

Yes.
88 (66.2%)
No.
35 (26.3%)
Young people probably spread it in the first place so prepare to meet thy doom 😂😂😂
10 (7.5%)

Total Members Voted: 133

Author Topic: The Final FUCKDOWN  (Read 79227 times)

Shoulders?-Stomach!

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #60 on: June 05, 2021, 12:33:44 AM »
it's not vital, you'll be fine with the first

Excellent so relieved

non capisco

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #61 on: June 05, 2021, 12:35:45 AM »
At least he didn't say 'ok cheers bye' I suppose.

bgmnts

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #62 on: June 05, 2021, 12:36:24 AM »
Nepal variant makes that, what, five variants now? Quite a diverse pathogen loving it.

Can viruses ever mutate to become more lethal?

Zetetic

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #63 on: June 05, 2021, 06:30:45 AM »
Yes, although selective pressures generally work against such variants spreading unless they have a decent incubation and/or low severity transmission period.

You might have heard of a little fellow called CoViD-19, for example.

Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #64 on: June 05, 2021, 08:55:32 AM »
Nepal variant makes that, what, five variants now? Quite a diverse pathogen loving it.

Can viruses ever mutate to become more lethal?

There are thousands of variants. The ones we hear about are the variants "of interest" or "of concern."

And yes, viruses can mutate to become more lethal, but it doesn't confer any particular advantage to the virus (to some extent it's a disadvantage, as a dead person is unlikely to be spreading it any further), so it's not a mutation that will tend to dominate on its own.

mobias

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #65 on: June 05, 2021, 09:00:45 AM »
it's not vital, you'll be fine with the first

Roughly 30% of those with one vaccine shot will be fine but we're up against a virus which is now thought to be up 100% more transmissible. I don't know about you but that maths doesn't seem like its on our side. 

Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #66 on: June 05, 2021, 09:58:05 AM »
I am going to got apeshit if I get Covid after two jabs.


chveik

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #67 on: June 05, 2021, 09:58:41 AM »
put that tedious cunt on ignore

Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #68 on: June 05, 2021, 10:41:14 AM »
I have but he still sends me pm

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #69 on: June 05, 2021, 10:50:09 AM »
Yes, although selective pressures generally work against such variants spreading unless they have a decent incubation and/or low severity transmission period.

You might have heard of a little fellow called CoViD-19, for example.

Incubation period cited as low as 3 days for Delta, but also 18 + days by others.

FerriswheelBueller

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #70 on: June 05, 2021, 10:54:35 AM »
For the dunces among us, incubation period is time between exposure and becoming infectious? Or something else?

Obviously I know the answer, just checking on behalf of everyone else.

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #71 on: June 05, 2021, 11:06:53 AM »
For the dunces among us, incubation period is time between exposure and becoming infectious? Or something else?

Obviously I know the answer, just checking on behalf of everyone else.

yup siree

Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #72 on: June 05, 2021, 11:16:43 AM »
For the dunces among us, incubation period is time between exposure and becoming infectious? Or something else?

Obviously I know the answer, just checking on behalf of everyone else.

It's the time between infection and symptoms starting. You can be infectious before symptoms start showing, or if you are completely asymptomatic.

mobias

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #73 on: June 05, 2021, 11:58:07 AM »
If the incubation period is now reduced with this new variant then presumably thats a good thing? I thought one of the reasons this has been such a shitty virus is that the incubation period was up to 10 days or more and in that time people were wandering around not knowing they had it but also shedding the virus everywhere?

FerriswheelBueller

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #74 on: June 05, 2021, 12:34:18 PM »
If the incubation period is now reduced with this new variant then presumably thats a good thing? I thought one of the reasons this has been such a shitty virus is that the incubation period was up to 10 days or more and in that time people were wandering around not knowing they had it but also shedding the virus everywhere?

Yeah that was my next question actually. The fucker of this is it can be asymptomatic for a week and a half by which time I’ve returned from my glamorous jet-setting life and swanned off somewhere else. 3 days means a ~70% reduction in that dangerous “ooh I’m fine no actually I wasn’t, sorry about that” time?

Unless it’s “you (still) have a simple case for 2 weeks, but this new one means you’re infectious for a greater period of that time”?

Might be the stage of the virus where I admit I’m a virus dunce. I had a good run as an amateur virologist (and then as an amateur immunologist) though.

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #75 on: June 05, 2021, 01:37:41 PM »
But you are a cracking moneyman and baseball numbers - man

FerriswheelBueller

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #76 on: June 05, 2021, 03:42:55 PM »
But you are a cracking moneyman and baseball numbers - man

Not to mention devilishly handsome and a dab hand at the mandolin.

Fambo Number Mive

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #77 on: June 06, 2021, 10:22:10 AM »
Quote
Asked how much more transmissible the new Delta variant of coronavirus is, Health Secretary Matt Hancock tells the Andrew Marr the best estimate of the "growth advantage" of the variant is 40%.

This makes life more challenging for everybody, he says.

But the level of hospitalisations is broadly flat right now, says Hancock.

The majority of those in hospitals have not had a vaccine at all. A "very small minority" have had both jabs.

The scientific advice shows that having one vaccine is not quite as effective against the Delta variant as against the most prevalent form of Covid-19 - but after both jabs, the protection is the same, adds Hancock.

Thanks Johnson for helping spread a 40% more transmissible varient in the UK by delaying putting India on the red list.

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #78 on: June 06, 2021, 11:29:11 AM »
And opening up society

mobias

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #79 on: June 06, 2021, 01:52:44 PM »

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #80 on: June 06, 2021, 02:22:53 PM »
Source for that travesty ? I assume the shaded areas are the bounds around the predictions?

Zetetic

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #81 on: June 06, 2021, 02:26:15 PM »
Britain has had enough of attempts to quantify uncertainty.

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #82 on: June 06, 2021, 02:26:41 PM »
Britain has had enough of attempts to quantify uncertainty.

Is that a dig at my forthcoming preprint?

Zetetic

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #83 on: June 06, 2021, 02:28:07 PM »
Not knowingly!

mobias

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #84 on: June 06, 2021, 02:33:12 PM »
Source for that travesty ? I assume the shaded areas are the bounds around the predictions?

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1401491359970758660

As is pointed out there it is based on the current very loose data and on several assumptions.

FerriswheelBueller

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #85 on: June 06, 2021, 04:06:06 PM »
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1401491359970758660

As is pointed out there it is based on the current very loose data and on several assumptions.

So he’s saying in ~10 days there will be more people in hospital than the peak of the 2nd wave? And by the end of June 14,000 will be in hospital with this?

Start your preddo clocks, I suppose (with the caveat that if it doesn’t happen, he is prosecuted in my imaginary court for his fucking tedious media doom-mongering).

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #86 on: June 06, 2021, 05:00:44 PM »
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1401491359970758660

As is pointed out there it is based on the current very loose data and on several assumptions.

Oops, I work with them.

BlodwynPig

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #87 on: June 06, 2021, 05:01:31 PM »
So he’s saying in ~10 days there will be more people in hospital than the peak of the 2nd wave? And by the end of June 14,000 will be in hospital with this?

Start your preddo clocks, I suppose (with the caveat that if it doesn’t happen, he is prosecuted in my imaginary court for his fucking tedious media doom-mongering).

The 14,000 is the upper bound on the prediction. Look at the mean, it's a lot lower.

FerriswheelBueller

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #88 on: June 06, 2021, 05:16:34 PM »
The 14,000 is the upper bound on the prediction. Look at the mean, it's a lot lower.

Exactly - but is that what Joe bloggs takes from that graph? I’m assuming it is being shared entirely unironically with a snapshot-type understanding and without any explanations or subtweets.

Add in the “WE ARE NOW HERE” vs the more accurate “if you make a few assumptions, based on some charts from mid-May we might be here but there’s not really a way to tell” and it seems designed (accidentally or otherwise) to spread panic and anxiety. But oh, Ferris, that explanation of future hypothetical epidemiology wouldn’t really fit on a single graph and it would lose its impact - well then maybe he shouldn’t be trying to communicate hypothetical epidemiology via an attention-grabbing image on Twitter.

He’s welcome to his doom-preddo, but the method of communication shouldn’t be above critique.

One man’s opinion, other opinions are available.

bgmnts

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Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
« Reply #89 on: June 06, 2021, 05:23:35 PM »
As the resident Joe Bloggs, intellectually speaking, can someone explain what the fuck that graph means in layman's terms?

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