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What will the virus do next?

Started by steveh, August 20, 2021, 01:47:08 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

steveh

This is a really good piece on how the SARS-CoV-2 virus has evolved so far and the things it still could be capable of in the future. Worth reading in full but this is the conclusion:

Quote"It seems plausible that true immune escape is hard," concludes William Hanage of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. "However, the counterargument is that natural selection is a hell of a problem solver and the virus is only beginning to experience real pressure to evade immunity."

And the virus has tricks up its sleeve. Coronaviruses are good at recombining, for instance, which could allow new variants to emerge suddenly by combining the genomes—and the properties—of two different variants. In pigs, recombination of a coronavirus named porcine epidemic diarrhea virus with attenuated vaccine strains of another coronavirus has led to more virulent variants of PEDV. "Given the biology of these viruses, recombination may well factor into the continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2," Korber says.

Given all that uncertainty, it's worrisome that humanity hasn't done a great job of limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2, says Eugene Koonin, a researcher at the U.S. National Center for Biotechnology Information. Some dangerous variants may only be possible if the virus hits on a very rare, winning combination of mutations, he says. It might have to replicate an astronomical number of times to get there. "But with all these millions of infected people, it may very well find that combination."

Indeed, Katzourakis adds, the past 20 months are a warning to never underestimate viral evolution. "Many still see Alpha and Delta as being as bad as things are ever going to get," he says. "It would be wise to consider them as steps on a possible trajectory that may challenge our public health response further."

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/new-sars-cov-2-variants-have-changed-pandemic-what-will-virus-do-next

GoblinAhFuckScary


Zetetic

"The spike protein is really strongly conserved."

"Well, not that strongly conserved."

"We've successfully engineered a variant with complete vaccine escape."[nb]
QuoteIn a preprint published this month, researchers tinkered with the virus to learn how much it has to change to evade the antibodies generated in vaccine recipients and recovered patients. They found that it took 20 changes to the spike protein to escape current antibody responses almost completely.
[/nb]

Milo

Twenty changes is quite a lot of changes, assuming you limit the changes to ones where the spike protein still works in some fashion.

Poirots BigGarlickyCorpse

After a robust discussion with some of the lads at work I went and researched vaccine efficacy and the Delta variant and now the Plague Inc Evolved theme is stuck in my head on a loop.

steveh

Interesting article about what the vaccine manufacturers are doing to get ready for variants with immune escape:

QuoteOver the past few months, all three companies have been running dress rehearsals by practising on known SARS-CoV-2 variants. This involves updating their vaccines to match variants such as Beta and Delta, testing them in clinical studies, tuning their internal workflows and coordinating with regulators. Their goal is to learn from these warm-up trials and smooth out kinks in their processes, so that they can move fast if, or when, a true escape variant emerges.

...

Miller hopes that the process of updating a COVID-19 vaccine will eventually become as streamlined as changing a flu vaccine, which typically doesn't require much in the way of clinical studies. And because RNA vaccines can be manufactured more quickly than conventional jabs, she adds, "the idea would be to make that switch even more rapidly than we're able to do with flu".

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02854-3

porcine epidemic diarrhea virus

noice

imitationleather

I reckon next there will be a feature length movie where the virus and all his pals go on holiday to Spain.



chveik


Milo

What was that, the laqer and wank thing? I've got a faint memory of old CaB lore.

SpiderChrist

Guest appearance on Mrs Brown's Boys

mothman

Quote from: imitationleather on October 22, 2021, 04:46:04 PM
I reckon next there will be a feature length movie where the virus and all his pals go on holiday to Spain.

Coronavirus On The Buses? Carry On COVID?

Pinball

I think the smart move for Covid would be to invest in the Shanghai stock market, and divest from Taiwan.

Mister Six

Quote from: Milo on October 22, 2021, 07:35:57 PM
What was that, the laqer and wank thing? I've got a faint memory of old CaB lore.

Only vaguely remember it myself. Some tedious twat, I'm guessing the sort of person who liked Dapper Laughs, telling people to stop being so uptight about comedy (or something) and have a laqer and a wank instead.

Chedney Honks

It was a member of the Balls of Steel production team responding to the show's reception on here.

Milo

Oh yes, that was it! They were the only official complaint I've ever made about telly.

Twonty Gostelow


Cold Meat Platter

Open a high-end virus-themed burger joint.

Cold Meat Platter


Cold Meat Platter


Cold Meat Platter


pancreas

I'm going to go with: Novelty restaurant.

idunnosomename

a few discreet shows, maybe something at Edinburgh, work up a decent follow up, difficult second album syndrome isn't it when you're launched into the spotlight so quickly

thenoise

Quote from: Chedney Honks on October 23, 2021, 06:12:54 AM
It was a member of the Balls of Steel production team responding to the show's reception on here.

Christ that was a low point wasn't it? Not just of comedy, but of culture and humanity in general. Hope that cunt has had sufficient laqers and wanks to forget his part in inflicting that monstrosity on the world, cos I don't think there could ever be enough laqers and wanks in one lifetime to forget that shit. And I absolutely love laqers and wanks.

On topic: kill Ed Sheeran

Shoulders?-Stomach!

I reckon it will pick on a city or a particular race and leave everyone else alone.

steveh

Haven't really been following Covid stuff recently, but did come across a reference to this interesting new paper which suggests that the useful evolutionary space available to the virus to try is now starting to run out:

QuoteOur results suggest that although Omicron poses new evolutionary risks not observed for Delta, structural constraints on the RBD make continued evolution toward more complete vaccine escape from either Delta or Omicron unlikely. The modest set of escape-enhancing mutations already identified for the wild type likely include the majority of all possible mutations with this effect.

So we *might* be lucky and not get a nasty new variant (at least in this way) that the current vaccines don't help with.

https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mbio.00135-22